Geopolitics

Call to Armageddon
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 03 Jun , 2024

The latest episode of the ‘Gaza Ceasefire’ Play is the POTUS Joe Biden’s three-phase proposal: one, six-week ceasefire initially; two, release of all living hostages and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza; three, return of remains of Israeli hostages in Gaza and reconstruction of Gaza with international assistance. This, while Israeli offensive in Rafah continues, America and Israel scoff at the ICC ruling against Israel, the aid project is in shambles, and  America is party to genocide already killing36,000 plus Palestinians. Significantly, Netanyahu maintains operations in Gaza will continue till end 2024 (or till Hamas is demolished?), which indicates Biden’s proposal may be just an election gimmick.

Asked about US bombs dropped by Israeli aircraft killing dozens of refugees in Rafah, Vedant Patel, Assistant White House Press Secretary said, “We shouldn’t talk about this. We don’t know what Israel attaches to its planes….US is for peace …. We have nothing to do with this conflict.”

But this is about the war in Ukraine where the US-led West has decided to raise violating of the Russian redlines by several notches. The US has allowed Ukraine to use American weaponry to strike inside Russia, following many western nations giving similar permission to Kiev. The Netherlands has green signaled Ukraine to target Russia using F-16 fighter aircraft supplied by them. NATO has agreed to supply Ukraine some one million drones within one year (to protect Ukraine with a ‘drone wall’), long-range artillery and missiles, more F-16s and air defence systems, along with other weaponry and military equipment.

NATO is creating a permanent structure for facilitating arms supplies and financing to Ukraine, as well as considering closing the skies over western Ukraine. The US has established a new munitions factory in Texas to produce 30,000 rounds of 155mm artillery shells every month. Ironically, some Indian 155mm artillery ammunition is also being used by the Ukrainian army (https://www.eurasiantimes.com/despite-ukraine-ban-indian-weapons-reach/amp/). Western mercenaries and regulars have been fighting in and regulars are concentrated in Poland for induction.The unprecedented move to use frozen Russian money and assets to finance Ukraine is another serious instigation against Moscow.

According to Dmitry Suslov,  member of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, Moscow reserves the right to strike any facilities of the countries concerned, including the US, anywhere in the world if the ‘old Russian territory’ is attacked. He also says it is important to declare that if US-NATO launches non-nuclear strike on Russian territory, Russia may use nuclear weapons. He further intends exercising strategic nuclear forces (in addition to ongoing exercises for tactical nukes), as also demonstrating a nuclear explosion.

Dmitry Meydedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation has said, “The current military conflict with the West is unfolding according to the worst-case scenario. There is constant escalation in the power of NATO weapons being deployed. Therefore, no one can exclude the conflict from escalating to its final (nuclear) stage today.” According to Sergey Lavrov, Minister of foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, the Wes has decided that Russia is in its pocket (https://youtu.be/Iy_a1uMLuLI?si=VHCYIvD0XJPf8Ln3).

Russian gains in Ukraine are more than visible. At the same time,  US weapons, including M-1 Abrams tanks, Switchblade drone, Patriot air defense missiles, M777 howitzers, Excalibur guided 155 mm artillery rounds, HIMARS precision missile, GPS-guided bombs, and AI-aided Skydio drones, have fared very poorly (https://www.realcleardefense.com/2024/06/01/ukraine_war_rips_veil_off_of_us_weapons_superiority_1035324.html).  But the US arms industry is reaping a bonanza; fuelling the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, plus arming new NATO members and allies under the bogey of Russia out to gobble up Europe.

On May 25, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the West that NATO members in Europe were playing with fire by proposing to let Ukraine use Western weapons to strike deep inside Russia, which he said could trigger a global conflict. However, Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General NATO, dismissed it as a routine warning. Wolf wolf??

Earlier it was thought that the US banked on Putin not using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. However, it is emerging that US-NATO now want Russia to use nuclear weapons and in response collectively strike Russia; aiming to decimate and disintegrate the Russian Federation. The US recentlytested a subcritical nuclear charge at an underground test site in Nevada, saying it was to obtain important data on behavior of materials in warheads. Possibly a new type of nuke and readiness/safety of the nuclear arsenal was tested. France is also conducting exercises to test readiness of Rafalejets to carry supersonic nuclear missiles. Biden’s first visit to France on June 8 would also coordinate upping the ante in Ukraine and collective response to Russia.

There is no doubt that the Biden Administration has brought China and Russia the closest ever and Chinese President Xi Jinping and Putin openly share a vision of reshaping the world by ending the era of Western dominance. But, the US possibly perceives it can deal with Russia while China will be focused on Taiwan with US and allied naval build up in Western Pacific or even orchestrating war on the Korean Peninsula. Another view is that the US wouldn’t mind sacrificing Taiwan if it can achieve conquest over Russia since China may consider seizing Taiwan the moment nuclear war breaks out in Ukraine.

These are dangerous moves by the US-led West, with the danger of uncontrollable escalation – call to Armageddon – without even the US mainland safe, as possibly perceived by the Biden Administration. Wu Qian, official representative of the Chinese Ministry of National Defence, has said, “The Chinese Army is ready to defend justice in the world together with the Russian Army. China’s Armed Forces are ready to work with the Russian Army to fully implement the important consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries. PLA soldiers are willing to ‘defend international justice and impartiality’ together with their Russian counterparts and make every effort to safeguard international and regional security.”

Concurrently, the IAEA reports that Iran’s reserves of highly enriched uranium have exceeded 30 times the permissible limit under JCPOA; Iran now possesses more than 142 kg of uranium enriched to 60 percent and continues to enrich uranium to an extent approaching weapons-grade levels. The US is readying its arsenal of GBU-57 (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) bombs to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. But can the US afford to ignite another hotspot like Iran, and what happens if China tests the Iranian nuke on its soil in Lop Nor, as it did for Pakistan. Wonder if the US noted the finesse with which Beijing (not Tehran) orchestrated the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel (https://sundayguardianlive.com/top-five/chinas-is-the-hand-behind-hamas-attack-on-israel).

Amid political discourse in India about taking back Pakistan occupied Jammu and Kashmir, news came that China is helping Pakistan  fortify positions along the LoC with India. The Indo-Pacific will hardly remain unaffected asUS-NATO seeks conflict with Russia, China continues to consolidate its positions along the LAC. The news about China deploying J-20 fighter aircraft and KJ-500 AWAC in Shigaste is being termed as “experimental basis”, which is hardly the case. Located at an altitude of over 12,000 feet, Shigatse has six J-20 fighters under protective covers along with eight J-10 fighters and one KJ-500 AWAC as seen in satellite images released by All Source Analysis. Shigatse is the air-base closest to Doklam Plateau and the India-Bhutan-China tri-junction. China may well be planning war on India, which ironically is what the US wants but for China it would split the US-NATO war effort between Ukraine, Gaza, Yemen, Iran-Taiwan-Korean Peninsula (?) and India.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Lt Gen Prakash Katoch

is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army.

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One thought on “Call to Armageddon

  1. Dear Sir,
    I think India must be proactive in averting war in the subcontinent, not out of fear but because it is easily attainable with talks with Russia and China. NATO has no business provoking Russia using Ukraine and China using Taiwan and Tibet and India using Kashmir.
    They are dumb and cunning. They play by few rules one of them being divide and rule.
    India cannot hedge its bets. If push comes to shove, Russia, China and Pakistan are our potential friends and Asiatic allies. We are all developing countries whose culture is diametrically opposite to the adharmic anglo culture.
    Please consider what I’m saying.
    It is all I ask.
    With regards,
    Jai Hind!
    Dr Rengaraj Sudarsanam.

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