More than fourteen months have passed since the Taliban ousted the elected government of Ashraf Ghani and gained control over Kabul for the second time. The significant aspect of this victory is that the Americans left Kabul post hate taking shelter behind the rather ambiguous Doha agreement but leaving billions of dollars worth of war machines behind at Bagram airport in Afghanistan.
Commentators have not been able to understand why the Americans beat a sudden retreat in Kabul thus proving the age-old axiom that “Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires.” Before the ignominious retreat of the American and NATO forces, the invading Soviets in 1979 had also eaten the humble pie.
Afghanistan is contiguous to Iran. They have a long common border. The two peoples are bound by historical, cultural, religious and economic ties from times immemorial. No casual or perfunctory event can separate the two peoples for all times. Temporary political irritants and obstructions do not undermine the millennia-old relations between the nations.
After the emergence of the Taliban regime in Kabul on August 15, 2021, the important question for the new regime in Kabul was its recognition by the world fraternity so that they would become part of the international community and benefit from various funding agencies to rebuild the war-shattered country and its economy. Except for Pakistan and Qatar, no other country in the world has granted diplomatic recognition to the Kabul regime of the Taliban.
Pakistan gave them immediate recognition because the Taliban are the creation of Pakistan. On the recognition of Pakistan, the Americans initially soft-paddled with them but relations with the US could not solidify owing to one cause that never went in favour of the Taliban and that was their abuse of human rights and in particular the denial of freedom to women of Afghanistan.
After the Taliban regained control over Kabul on 15 August, it was expected by world powers that the Taliban would announce reformation and relaxation in their steel-framed sharia code as it would go in their favour to be considered among the comity of nations observing established civil, political and human rights.
The Taliban spokesmen and even officials did casually commit allowing normal human and political cum civil rights to rule the roost. But such commitments never materialized and did not go beyond eyewash. The free world drew an agenda for the Kabul regime in which conditions like inclusive governance, freedom of education to females, not allowing the Afghan soil to be used against a third country, fair and just treatment to people of all classes and categories and religious freedom etc, were the stipulated conditions.
The Taliban did not show strong resentment to these riders though they even did not make a threadbare commitment at any time. The reason was that the Taliban were marking time. They were faced with an economic crisis and the food shortage was acute. Taliban issued appeals for support on humanitarian bases and some countries/organizations did respond.
In due course of time, it came to the fore that the Taliban were not interested in bringing about reforms or allowing any concessions in the implementation of sharia laws that infringed the human rights and other rights in the contemporary social order of states with reasonable credibility.
In the beginning, it was presumed that Iran would not only recognize the Taliban but would announce its support to the Taliban regime. After all, the withdrawal of the Americans from Afghanistan was very well received by Tehran. The disappearance of the “Great Satan,”— as the Iranians call the US— from a country in her proximity was a political gain and all the credit goes to the Taliban who miraculously forced the world’s most powerful country to leave its borders.
Secondly, both Iran and the Taliban are the votaries of a theocratic dispensation in their respective countries. It should have been the cementing force for their camaraderie. It was expected that the two countries would cooperate in rebuilding Afghanistan as the strong Islamic Emirate in South Asia.
However, these considerations paled into insignificance when the two countries were faced with harsh reality. Firstly, the Taliban are mostly and predominantly of Sunni Hanafi Deobandi school of thought. The Pukhtun Taliban has treated the Shia population of Mazar-i-Sharif and Herat with discrimination so much so that several times the Heratis had to migrate to the Iranian side to escape the persecution or pogroms of the Sunni fanatics. The Pakistani actors in Afghanistan before and after the second regime of the Afghan Taliban have always worked against the interests of the Shia community.
Although Iran supported the late Ahmad Shah Mas’ud, —- the Lion of the Panjsheer Valley —- because he was a Shia by faith and was fighting the jihad against the atheist Soviet Union, Teheran does not show any warmth towards his son Ahmad Mas’ud who has taken his late father’s place as the leader of the Resistance movement based in Panjsheer Valley. The reason is that Ahmad Mas’ud was educated in the UK and has good relations with the Americans also. The does not suit the Iranian outlookand they are sceptical about Ahmad Mas’ud’s policy and line of thinking.
Thus Tehran remains indecisive about whether it should or should not give recognition to the Taliban regime. The US has imposed sanctions on Iran arguing that she is exporting terror to Middle East countries and has suppressed the human rights of all dissidents. The recent anti-hijab movement of Iranian women has been met with brute force by the theocratic regime and nearly 400 people have lost their lives while thousands have sustained injuries. The entire world had castigated the theocratic regime of Tehran for atrocities. The use of force against the unarmed demonstrators demanding certain rights has obliterated the chances of finding a solution to the Iranian nuclear issue with the European community. We think that the mediation undertaken by the EU will be suspended and Iran will be under a long sell of sanctions.
Initially the anti-hijab movement in Iran spearheaded by the women’s unions had its impact in Afghanistan. Some women organizations did demonstrate against the hijab in imitating its prototype in Iran. But the Taliban authorities handled the small demonstrations without using the brute force and yet cooling down the heightened spirits.
For Iran there is one more hindrance in considering recognition of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and that is Taliban closeness to Qatar. It was in a Qatar where the Taliban had first opened their office and used it a platform for conducting negotiations with the Americans. Qatar government has been instrumental in forging the Doha agreement. Iran is sceptical about the Taliban-Qatar-USA triangular relations.
In this situation of uncertainty, it is almost impossible for Iran to give recognition to the Taliban regime. The Taliban have shown no relent whatsoever in the harsh and brutal implementation of inhuman laws against women. Iran would not want to be bracketed with the Taliban as the perpetrator of inhumanities against its population.
Nevertheless, some observers do not discard chances of rapprochement between the two theocratic regimes of Iran and Kabul. “Even though Iran’s Islamist regime is a Shia model and the Taliban is a Sunni Deobandi movement driven by a different sects of Islam, they are united in that they are both fundamentalist and radical in terms of their religious orientation and the way they oppose the West, particularly the US,” said Omar Sadr, an assistant professor of political science at the American University of Afghanistan.
“The possibility of Tehran recognizing the Taliban regime in Kabul is real. Iran’s embassy in Kabul is functional. Qataris are mediating between the Taliban and Tehran, unfortunately, with great success, I should say,” said Tabish Forugh, an Afghan writer and a former democracy fellow at the US Congress-funded National Endowment for Democracy in Washington DC.
However, at present this is nothing less than wishful thinking. Tehran is grappling with the economic sanctions imposed by the US with ramifications on Iran’s relations with the European countries. In such a political scenario, Tehran may not consider it feasible to recognize the Taliban and thereby push herself in the lap of the countries castigated for violation of human rights. Iran will take time to overcome the anti-hijab movement through the methodology of dialogue and face saving devices.
Please wait...
