Indian Defence Review

The only good in the second round of Russia-Ukraine talks is the agreement to create a safe corridor for humanitarian aid. This, along with a safe corridor for foreign nationals to exit Ukraine should have been among the first priorities of the US, not just fuelling the conflict for its own national interests. Same should have been the demand in the first UNSC meeting on Ukraine. Ironically, these were not the priorities, the focus only being to denounce Russia, highlight civilian casualties and misery of refugees. 

US President Joe Biden in his State of the Union address has indicated that the Ukraine Conflict is in for a long haul by saying that Ukrainians would be facing difficulties for days, weeks and months. Rather than brokering peace between Russia and Ukraine, the US is hell bent on prolonging the conflict and turning Ukraine into a graveyard like Iraq.

America is pumping arms into Ukraine along with NATO countries because it gave false hopes to Ukraine and is responsible for its destruction, not Russia, which was forced to invade Ukraine; threats to Russia’s security were constantly increasing because of US-NATO machinations including broken promises to the Soviets.

President Putin has said that the offensive is going as per plan and Ukraine is using civilians as human shields. Kherson has fallen to Russian forces already. Kharkiv and Mariupol have been encircled and Kiev is in the process of being surrounded. The Black Sea Port of Odessa is an objective for the Russians.

Capture of Mariupol and Odessa will cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea. An Estonian-owned cargo ship sank off Odessa Port on March 3, hours after a Bangladeshi vessel was hit by a missile or bomb at a port east of Odessa. Ukraine has blamed Russia for these attacks.

In his above mentioned address, Biden was elated about squeezing Russia economically; denying SWIFT, freezing $640 billion of Russia Central Bank and the like. It is stupid to think that President Putin had not taken these sanctions into account. Interestingly, Victor Tatarintsev, Russian ambassador to Sweden told a Swedish newspaper that Moscow “doesn’t give a s***’ about the threat of Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis. The joke circulating is Dennis the Menace says even old Mr Wilson could have worked out sanctions better compared to Uncle Sam scribbling lists every second day.

Actually, the US is dishing out sanctions being ill prepared and having no risk to reward ratio in getting militarily into Ukraine – showcasing the falling supremacy of its hegemony.

Russia has developed its own financial messaging ‘System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) which has been in place since 2014. In 2015, China launched the cross-border Interbank Payment System (CPIS) with RMB as the currency. China and Russia have also been in talks with BRICS and EAEU on development of crypto-currencies and other non SWIFT payment mechanisms.

These systems may look small now but America’s continued brinkmanship may result in other nations using these systems, with messaging systems and all banks having multiple identification codes instead of one. 

Biden has bluffed in portraying that the sanctions will only hit Russia, not Europe, even though America is earning more dollars by selling oil to the EU at four times the price of the Russian oil.  He has also deliberately glossed over the energy crisis that the EU will face; America just cannot meet the energy requirements of Europe.

Biden possibly blackmailed Scholz by telling him the US will not give any oil to Germany unless Russia is boycotted. Similarly, Macron perhaps was roped in by saying America will fully support his re-election to the French President in April 2022. 

Biden is also bluffing he has isolated Russia. But other than in Europe and East Asia, US allies have refused to blindly follow Biden’s lead. Israel and the Gulf oil sheikhdoms have taken a neutral or nuanced stand. 35 countries including the UAE, India, China, Mexico (America’s neighbor), Philippines (US ally), and several Latin American states including Brazil abstained from voting in the UNSC on the US-sponsored anti-Russia resolution. The 10-nation ASEAN too holds its independent view.

The latest consignments of US-NATO arms being pumped into Ukraine include anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons from Germany and Stinger missiles from the US. The rearming of Germany is being taken up on a war footing. It goes without saying that the US-NATO would also be examining irregular war against the Russian invasion using proxy forces; including gas/chemical attacks or even back-pack nuke (?) while blaming it on the Russians.  

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on a tour to Belgium, Poland, Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania and some other countries to rally support against Russia. Concurrently, Josep Borrell Fontelles, EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy is visiting Moldova to discuss Moldova’s EU membership. Georgia also is expected to follow Ukraine’s lead to apply for EU membership. It is possible that the EU membership of these countries, including Ukraine, may be announced in the near future.

Much noise is being made about the destruction caused by Russia in Ukraine. Having achieved air superiority within 48 hours of launch of the invasion, Russia could have really ‘plastered’ Ukraine and captured all objectives by now, which it did not. There is also much noise about Russia invading a sovereign   country. But compare this with: 42 days of incessant bombing of sovereign Iraq before the US invasion, and; NATOs bombing campaign against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia from March 24, 1999 to June 10, 1999.

As usual, NATO’s aerial campaign against Yugoslavia was ‘without’ UN approval. NATO bombing killed about 1,000 members of the Yugoslav security forces in addition to between 489 and 528 civilians. The bombings destroyed or damaged bridges, industrial plants, hospitals, schools, cultural monuments, private businesses as well as barracks and military installations.

Putin has made it clear that Russia will respond in kind to Western sanctions with counter sanctions and asymmetrical responses. Most importantly, he wants the security guarantees for Russia, which the US is just not accepting. Like so many American strategists, diplomats and scholars, including Kissinger, George Kennan and John Joseph Mearsheimer, Putin wanted Ukraine to remain a neutral country and NATO not to expand east of Germany, but the US has consistently worked the opposite, ignoring Russia’s genuine security concerns.

Putin, therefore, is not left with any option other than ensuring a militarized buffer zone between NATO and Russia. This will likely prolong the Ukraine Conflict and also tie down NATO forces in Eastern Europe – much to the glee of China.

The Ukraine Conflict, thrust upon Putin, actually boils down to a war between the US and Russia with Ukraine in between as America’s puppet. Biden does not acknowledge his son through Lunden Roberts but appears to treat Zelensky, Ukraine’s comedian-cum-President, more like a son, also because of his son Hunter Biden’s business links in Ukraine.

There are also some reports of US-funded bio-labs in Ukraine which may or may not be benign. And, there is speculation that a prolonged conflict with Russia over Ukraine may witness the Biden-Blinken duo visiting Beijing in an attempt to pull China away from Russia.

Biden said in his State of the Union address, “When the history of this era is written, Putin’s war on Ukraine will have left Russia weaker and the rest of the world stronger.” But no one can predict how this war will end. Putin is being portrayed as an unpredictable maverick – but if that is the thinking why is he being provoked more and more? Will more brinkmanship against Russia not trigger nuclear conflict?  Russia is not Yugoslavia. As for pumping arms into Ukraine, any vehicle carrying lethal military equipment into a war zone is a legitimate target under international law.

Finally, one can safely say that when the history of this era is written, it will brand Joe Biden for destroying Ukraine. The rest will depend on how the US-Russia war over Ukraine proceeds.