Geopolitics

Turbulence in South Asia
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Issue Courtesy: Aakrosh | Date : 17 Nov , 2011

The possibility of penalising Pakistan by other means has not been ruled out. Sanctions may not be immediately imposed, but by highlighting Pakistani complicity in the attacks on U.S. targets in Afghanistan, the U.S. has turned global opinion against the Pakistan army and the ISI and has moved closer to mounting new attacks on the Haqqani group and some other targets in Pakistan.

The killing of Osama bin Laden and continuous U.S. drone strikes on al-Qaeda and the Taliban targets in Pakistans tribal lands strained U.S.-Pakistan relations greatly.

Sanctions, or withholding of further U.S. aid, are unlikely to coax Pakistan into changing its fundamental strategic thinking. If the U.S. resorts to the use of force, Pakistan would be forced to respond. There is a fiercely anti-American mood in Pakistan, and Kayani and his top generals are a bit concerned about the growing influence of fundamentalism in the army’s middle and lower ranks. Any perceived compromise with the U.S. may trigger a near mutiny. The worse situation would be if the army splits.2

Many observers believe that, as a result of the U.S.-Pakistan duel, India will face a heightened threat to its security because of regional turmoil. Presently, India is prepared to face the new terrorist threats, but the main threats to India arise from a military confrontation between the U.S. and Pakistan in which may get embroiled. The U.S., which for long has turned a blind eye towards Indian problems regarding the role of the ISI in planning and sponsoring terrorist attacks against India, is now no longer in a position to ignore India’s concern after finding direct involvement of the ISI with the Haqqani group in mounting attacks on American establishments and U.S. assets in Kabul, which were masterminded by the ISI. America must now accept the fact of Pakistan’s double game and reshape its policies in South Asia.

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The U.S. has declared that it will do “whatever it takes” to protect its security interests in Afghanistan—hinting at unilateral strikes that may be far more damaging than the sorts that led to the killing of bin Laden. There is increasing belief in the U.S. military in aggressive “hot pursuit” of terrorists who strike in Afghanistan and disappear into the rugged frontier terrain of Pakistan. This, however, would mean U.S.-NATO forces crossing the Durand Line, which is an internationally recognised border, and will entail a risk of an escalation of violence along the Afghan-Pakistan border. Pakistan may pose a new dangerous terrorist threat to India and be ready for a far more audacious terrorist strike in India. Its calculation will be that the Indian government will be forced to respond militarily to the provocation, which will draw U.S. attention from Pakistan’s western borders and force the U.S. to pullback from the brinkmanship with Pakistan. The best course for America, therefore. may be to seek cooperation from Pakistan and avoid any military confrontation with it.3

If the terrorists lay hands on the nuclear weapons of Pakistan, they will threaten the entire civilised world.

The killing of Osama bin Laden and continuous U.S. drone strikes on al-Qaeda and the Taliban targets in Pakistan’s tribal lands strained U.S.-Pakistan relations greatly. Of course, the continuing refusal of the Pakistan army to launch attacks on the militants of North Waziristan has made matters worse. The Pakistan army is still unable to see that its terror-based policies have boomeranged and are wrecking its own country and economy. Those monsters it raised to execute its covert agendas in India and Afghanistan have now come home to attack Pakistani establishments, and innocent people are now dying daily by blasts triggered by those who had raised it in the first place. The ISI headquarters in Rawalpindi itself, apart from some of its offices in the provinces, have been targeted lately.

The Pakistan army still wants all these terror organisations as part of its strategic assets to be employed against India, Afghanistan and the United States forces operating in the Af-Pak region. The Pakistan army and the ISI continue their game, and it is not possible to establish peace in the region unless these two instruments of Pakistani power are brought under control of a civilian government in Pakistan.

Conflicting interests and internal factions have made the civil government in Pakistan ineffective. Unless the military and the ISI change their strategy of supporting terrorist groups, the situation will not change in South Asia. The terrorist groups and its supporters have already grown stronger than the state. If the terrorists lay hands on the nuclear weapons of Pakistan, they will threaten the entire civilised world.

Notes and References

  1. Source, New York Times. <http://www.nytimes.com>.
  2. Source, Time.com <http://www.time.com/time/world/ar>.
  3. Venky Vembu. “India at Risk of Being Caught in US-Pak Crossfire.” First Post, 25 September 2011. <http://www.firstpost.com/world/india-at-risk-of-being-caught-in-us-pak-crossfire-91888.html>.
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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Maj Gen Afsir Karim

is Editor Aakrosh and former Editor Indian Defence Review.

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