Indian Defence Review

Regional Environment

India’s influence in the region is waning at a fast pace, yielding political and strategic space to our traditional adversaries and Islamic and fascist forces. If we look at the regional scenario, we find our influence receding in most countries in our neighbourhood compared to the growing influence of China.In Sri Lanka, Maldives and Nepal, where India’s influence was almost all-pervasive a few decades ago our influence has receded. In Bangladesh, we have gained a better foothold, thanks to Sheikh Hasina and her party, but our ability to achieve our strategic aims is still limited. Pakistan remains a major challenge in the region despite a sharp decline in its stature and political clout, as it has managed to retain its strategic advantages with the world powers by some clever manoeuvring.

Despite our large assistance to the Government of Sri Lanka, we have not been able to protect the interests of the Sri Lankan Tamils or safeguard the lives of Indian fishermen, who have been repeatedly attacked and killed by the Sri Lankan navy. Now, India’s voting against Sri Lanka in the UN on the human rights issue has further vitiated the atmosphere. Sri Lanka may now further ignore India’s strategic interests in the region by encouraging Chinese inroads in the island. Lately Sri Lanka has shown concern about the number of nuclear plants in South India, suggesting they may prove an environmental hazard. It seems a political move rather than a genuine concern about the hazard these nuclear plants may pose.

The Chinese influence is increasing in the Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles, directly affecting our security interests, and we have yet to counter this trend. We must be more assertive in projecting our strategic interests in these island nations so as not to lose our present advantage over Chinese naval forces in the Indian Ocean region. In the Maldives Indian interests are in jeopardy also due to the increasing influence of Pakistan-based jihadi groups and the Somali pirates working hand in hand.

The financial help China is providing to Seychelles and Mauritius for combating piracy has given China a strong foothold in the Indian Ocean region. During Hu Jintao visit to Port Louis in 2009, ‘China announced a credit of US $ 260 million to Mauritius to modernize and expand its airports, also trade between the two countries has increased greatly since 2008 to reach US $ 323 million. China also announced an interest-free loan of US $ 5.9 million and a grant of 30 million yuan (about US $ 5 million).’2

The internal security environment of Pakistan continues to deteriorate; now, Pakistan is the main hub from where terrorist attacks are directed all over the world. Persistent sectarian violence between the Shias and the Sunnis and a spate of terror attacks in the last few years have resulted in administrative chaos and economic meltdown here. The frontier regions of Pakistan continue to be out of control of the federal administration and remain prime areas for mounting operations against the security forces of Pakistan. From here, they continue to plan and execute attacks in Afghanistan and within Pakistan. The future of Baluchistan continues to be extremely uncertain. A very large number of people, including civilians, security personnel and insurgents, have been killed here in past two years, with some high-profile assassinations.

In the last few years, Pakistan has faced more than a hundred terror attacks. The terrorists did not even spare military establishments. Pakistan today is on the brink of a self-made disaster. The backlash despite many compromises by the military has led to a situation in which the state security apparatus has become ineffective. A worsening economy is enabling radical groups to further their disruptive agenda as they are getting more recruits from among the unemployed.

Pakistan is without a doubt paying the price for nourishing and encouraging terror groups; the policy of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds has rebounded. These chaotic conditions in Pakistan may, however, result in more terrorist attacks on India as people like Hafiz Saeed gain ground in a failing state.

After U.S. exit from Afghanistan, the Taliban is likely to grab power, leading to the formation of another radical state, the ripple effect of which would be surely felt in India. There is also a possibility that a resurgent Taliban would help the Pakistani Taliban to overthrow the civilian government in Pakistan, leading to a military–fundamentalist takeover and greater chaos in the region. A collapsing Pakistan would strengthen the terror groups, who may create more problems for India. Further, in the eventuality of a collapse, the radicals will be in a position to get hold of the nuclear weapons and use these as weapons of blackmail against India and the West.

Once the American withdrawal process is completed, the scenario will change radically. Pakistan will aid the Taliban, and a radical fundamentalist regime may be jointly established in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The future, however, cannot be predicted with any certainty because many international forces will come into play. What can be predicted with some certainty is that the conditions will remain highly disturbed in the region in the foreseeable future because of these developments.

Afghanistan’s problems cannot be looked at in isolation as there is a considerable external aspect to its internal security environment. Pakistan’s attempt to fill the vacuum created by the exit of NATO and U.S. forces may result in clashes between Pakistani the Afghan forces prolonging the ongoing turmoil.