Events related to Israel and Iran over next few days will likely have profound effect on the Middle East. The Israeli Knesset is to take a call on formation of the next government in Israel. The eight-party coalition, which includes for the first time an Arab-Israeli party, has notified President Reuven Rivlin of forming the next government with Naftali Bennett as the Prime Minister till August 2023 and Yair Lapid the foreign minister, after which Lapid will take over as Prime Minister. Lapid has stated that the new government will do everything it can in order to unite and unify all sections of the Israeli society. Arabsnumbering 1,890,000 (2019 figures by Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics) are 20.9 percent of the population of Israel.
There is however speculation that YarivLevin, Speaker of the Knesset from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party will try to delay the parliamentary voting in the 120-seat Knesset in order to allow time for political skullduggery for weakening the 61-member coalition of the government-in-waiting. Fearing this the government-in-waiting has submitted a request to remove Levin enabling an early vote before June 14. If this deal passes muster in the Knesset then it will be curtains for Netanyahu’s 12-year premiership. Interestingly, Defence Minister Benny Gantz is to retain his portfolio in the new government.
Naftali Bennett is considered more rightist than Netanyahu on issues like expansion of Israeli settlements in Palestinian territory though this may change somewhat with first-time Israeli-Arab clashes inside Israel during the recent Israel-Hamas conflict and world attention on the devastation caused in Gaza, which could have transformed into larger regional conflict if the truce had not taken place. With Iran arming Hamas and Hezbollah there was possibility of Lebanon and even Iran getting drawn into a larger conflict while some missiles and rockets in the exchange of barrages may have managed to get past Israel’s Iron Dome. Israel is also an undeclared nuclear power and an Israel-Iran conflict could have sucked in the US and other global players.
Concurrent to the ongoing 5th round of talks on the Iran Nuclear Deal in Vienna, noteworthy is the IAEA statement that Iran’s uranium enrichment is some 16-times more than what was agreed in the JCPOA. Also, ‘Kharg’, Iranian Navy’s largest warship sank in the Gulf of Oman near the Straits of Hormuz after a fire on board. There have been series of mysterious explosions that began in 2019 targeting ships in the Gulf of Oman, for which the US Navy accused Iran of sabotage with limpet mines and timed explosives typically attached by divers to a vessel’s hull. Whether the sinking of Khargwas retaliatory sabotage or not will remain a mystery.
At Vienna, Enrique Mora, the EU coordinatorfor the talks on the JCPOA told media on June 2 that an agreement would be reached as soon as next week, saying, “I am sure that the next round will be the one in which we will finally get a deal,” However, the joint statement from Britain, France, and Germany read, “We have continued to make progress and important parts of a future deal have now been fleshed out, but the most difficult decisions lie ahead. We have of course worked based on the principle of nothing is agreed to (until) all is agreed.”
Most significantly, the Iranian government spokesman Ali Rabiei, had stated on June 1 that a deal was likely in August. This makes more sense since presidential elections in Iran are scheduled on June 18 and expecting a deal before the new government assumes office may be illusionary unless the US joins the original JCPOA and lifts all sanctionssimultaneously, which is unlikely. To this end, Enrique Mora’s optimism of reaching a deal in the next round may be the 6th round or the next.
Slated for June 18, the 13th presidential election in Iran is to be held simultaneously with council and midterm parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections. The Constitutional Council having screened more than 590 presidential hopefuls has approved seven final candidates for the election. Judiciary Chief Syed Ebrahim Raeisi appears to be the frontrunner. Raeisi was former chief custodian of the holy shrine of the eighth Shiite Imam in Iran’s Mashhad. He had lost the presidential race to Hassan Rouhani in 2017. Those disqualified by the Constitutional Council include former president MahmoudAhmadinejad and president of IRIB Ezzatollah Zarghami.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has already indicated that US joining the original JCPOA will not be acceptable to Israel and that Israel will strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. Speaking during the visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Tel Aviv, Netanyahu said, “I can tell you that I hope that the United States will not go back to the old JCPOA because we believe that that deal paves the way for Iran to have an arsenal of nuclear weapons with international legitimacy.” On March 7, 2021, Iranian Defence Minister Amir Hatami threatened Israel saying, “Iran will reduce Tel Aviv and Haifa to rubbish if Israel crosses the line.”
After an Israeli ship was attacked in the Sea of Oman on February 26, Iranian media termed it retaliation for an Israeli air strike on Iran’s proxy group at the borders between Iraq and Syria. Netanyahu had then stated, “It was indeed an act by Iran, that’s clear. Iran is the greatest enemy of Israel. I am determined to halt it. We are hitting it in the entire region.” Israeli officials have said that they are updating their information about Iran’s nuclear sites in preparation of future operations. On April 11, there were reports of a massive explosion at the Natanz Nuclear Plant of Iran for which Iran blamed Israel.
The US has donned the role of interlocutor between Israel and Palestine and appears to be resetting its policy towards the Israel-Palestine conflict. It has rejected Israeli measures to evict Palestinians from the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood of East Jerusalem and criticized Israeli incursions intoAl-Aqsa Mosque. Even before the Israel-Hamas conflict, US State Department said that the US considers the West Bank to be occupied territory. Now US has resumed aid to Palestinian institutions and reinstated financial support of UNRWA. However, implementation of America’s recommitment to the two-state solution will likely remain a chimera. The Israel-Palestine conflict is closely linked to the Israel-Iran animosity which appears to be getting worse. Peace in the Middle East, therefore, may come and go in spurts.
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