The idea of QUAD was first put forward by then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2007. The initiative wanted to bring the four major democracies under the concept of confluence of two seas for a rule based region. This was followed by the first informal meeting between the leaders of QUAD nations on the sideline of ASEAN regional forum in Manila 2007. However, the longevity of the initiative was very short lived as all the nations had their respective strategic outlook during that period.
As pointed by then Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd the QUAD during its initial phase was politically ambiguous about its specific role. Also, there was the China factor which played an important role in the disbanding of the initiative in its budding phase as Beijing viewed it as a containment strategy. With the expanding economic relation with China and Beijing’s foreign policy dominated by peaceful rise theory made the initiative less feasible to uphold. This led Australia to pull back from the initiative as it did not suit its interest.
As pointed by Kevin Rudd that China under Hu Jintao in 2007 had a foreign policy approach which was different from current approach adopted by Xi Jinping. Therefore having an alliance aimed at China in 2007 was not a wise strategic choice.
QUAD 2.0
The current resurgence of the initiative can also attributed with the rise of China’s assertive foreign policy approach. The coming of Xi Jinping has brought some structural shifts in China’s foreign policy. The most fundamental is China’s shift from its long standing hide and bide strategy to adopting more assertive and aggressive strategies. This is very much evident from Beijing’s actions in South and East China Sea.
The maritime aspect of BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) can also be attributed towards the revival of the QUAD as they are speculative towards the growing Chinese influence and presence in the Indo-Pacific. This had led to the first official level discussion of the QUAD leaders in 2017 under the sidle line of the 12th ASEAN summit.
However, the initiative had started to gain prior momentum with Japan becoming permanent member of the joint Indo – US Malabar naval exercise in 2015. However, India blocked Australia’s plea to join the exercise at multiple occasions aligning with the concerns of Beijing as the inclusion of Australia would highlight the China containment strategy.
With India sharing a disputed land border with China, joining a China containment camp would have had a major security implication on its land border. Therefore, as illustrated by Indian Prime Minister at his speech at Shangri- La dialogue in 2018 where he stated that India’s vision for Indo-Pacific is free open and inclusive and not directed towards any nation.
The resurgence of Great Power Politics on QUAD
The recent Sino- US geo- political dynamics has been predominated by great power politics and the arrival of Covid-19 had further impacted the already strained relation. The US under Trump had blamed China for the cause of Covid-19and demanded action against Beijing. There has been a lot of speculations regarding the origin of the Coronavirus with many nations requesting for an official enquire on China and its handling of the virus. Australia had been one of the advocators of having an enquiry towards the virus origination.
This had led Beijing to retaliate with traffics on various Australian imports impacting the diplomatic relations between both the nations. The overall Sino- Australian diplomatic relations were unsteady prior to the Covid crisis with the allegations of China’s political interference in Australia’s domestic politics.
The diplomatic relation between New Delhi and Beijing also went downhill with the military clash at the torturing Himalayan heights leading to high casualties on both sides. This incident had galvanized India’s intent to join a mechanism through which it can counterbalance the growing power competition with China in its neighborhood. India was visualized as the weak link among the QUAD nation, however that posture has got a shake post the border clash. This had led India to invite Australia for the 2020 Malabar naval exercise which further structured the idea of the QUAD framework.
The geopolitical incidents had aligned the Quad nations which led to the groupings foreign ministerial meeting in October 2020 in Tokyo which was eminently aimed against China. Therefore, the current power politics dominating the bilateral relations of the various QUAD nations with China has proven to be the linchpin in the restructuring of the initiative.
The Future of QUAD
With the initiative being in its budding stage the future of the QUAD is still indecisive. However, the joint statement issued post the summit highlights the synchronized strategic outlook of the individual nations. It emphasized on a shared vision on promoting rule based order in the Indo- Pacific, tackling and addressing emerging challenges and issues. But the primary aspect of the QUAD had been attributed with the rise of a new Asian alliance or the Asian NATO. The strengthening of alliance has become structural foreign policy approach under the Biden administration in countering the rise of China.
As pointed out by Kurt Campbell that US should reframe its alliance system which was undermined by the previous administration. He had also emphasized on the QUAD as a key pillar in this alliance system. However, it is still early to speculate QUAD turning into an Asian NATO keeping into consideration India’s strategic relation with Russia and its Non Aligned foreign policy approach.
There has been a narrative in converting the QUAD into a QUAD plus organization by including other likeminded nations into the initiative. This had garnered momentum post US Deputy Sectary of States Stephen Beigun initiated an online meeting with his QUAD counterparts and counterparts from New Zealand, Vietnam and South Korea.
The meeting had fundamentally gravitated on a coordinated response in respect to mitigate the ongoing Covid-19 crisis. But the structure of the call had created a sense of expanding the grouping with further likeminded nations. The recent QUAD plus France naval exercise in the Indian Ocean also points towards the expansion of the QUAD initiative. The UK has also shown interest in joining the QUAD initiative under its global Britain strategy and to increase its presence in the Indo- Pacific.
These initiatives by the major European powers indicate towards the shift in power dynamics from Atlantic to Indo-Pacific in which the QUAD is considered to be a strategic linchpin. Therefore, it can be articulated that the significance of QUAD with the passage of time will fundamentally grow in managing overall security architecture of the Indo- Pacific. But analyzing the QUAD as an upcoming military alliance is still a matter of debate.
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