Homeland Security

Role of Intelligence Agencies in Modern Warfare
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 29 Oct , 2014

Gathering intelligence and information by means of espionage has been a key element to the survival of nations ever since their existence.

However, there has been a major change in the way intelligence agencies work ever since the evolution of technology and the unthinkable amount of advances in the way people live their everyday lives.  Primitive methods used by ninjas in Japan, were replaced by modern methods of espionage which all of you, as representatives of various accomplished agencies are expected to be extremely familiar with. Furthermore, the role of intelligence agencies has changed dramatically; Intelligence agencies are not mere data collection and analysis units anymore, they are full-fledged covert armies, called upon to take action when no one else can. From staging coups to stopping nukes, these agencies have done it all.

…the role of intelligence agencies has changed dramatically; Intelligence agencies are not mere data collection and analysis units anymore, they are full-fledged covert armies, called upon to take action when no one else can.

Most of these changes occurred in the aftermath of World War 2. During the Second World War, countries couldn’t gather intelligence as quickly as they would have liked and that had adverse effects. Pre-world war one however was a period filled with intelligence agencies working for the various rulers in different parts of Europe and Asia. This period was also the time when private organizations were hired, as the risk of moles in national agencies was too great.

The evolution of Strategic intelligence analysis that began during World War II through the Korean War occurred to protect the safety of the public of respective nations. Strategic intelligence analysis is for the formulation of strategy, policy, and military plans and operations at national and theatre levels.  It is during the strategic intelligence analysis process that a strategy is planned to “furthers one’s advance towards goals by suggesting ways to accommodate and/or orchestrate a variety of variables”.

World War II, experienced dramatic changes in “America’s National Strategy” and June 1940 marked the “break in America’s conception of its role in the world”.  During this time America saw the Nazi’s move towards the control of the “Continent from the Arctic Circle to the Pyrenees” and if the Royal fleet was sunk, then Germany may have been able to control the entire “eastern side of the Atlantic”.  With President Roosevelt showing shock due to the actions of the Nazi’s at this time, he had sent weapons and ships to Great Britain through Lend Lease” which helped develop a strategic partnership with Great Britain and the United States.  It was this crisis in 1940 that caused such “significant changes in American Intelligence”.  With this scare of a hostile government takeover possibly arriving on U.S. soil, the policy makers in Congress passed the Smith Act criminalizing any conspiracies to overthrow the government of the United States. This is one example in which strategic intelligence analysis helped in the policy making of the United States.

As mentioned above, WWII was the time of the evolution of strategic intelligence analysis with the successful intelligence products of propaganda, which laid the “foundation for the future of strategic influence and intelligence”.

The National Security Act of the U.S.A formed the basis for the formation of many other intelligence agencies during the decade following 1947.

When the CIA was created the agency became the “integral part of government decision making structures in Washington and in the field where its expertise in collection, analysis and operations had gained increased respect”.

The Cold War saw the further evolution of intelligence agencies, introduction of “larger foreign policy focus”. The U.S.A saw the U.S.S.R as keeping her administration from a more “comprehensive foreign policy”. When the CIA was created the agency became the “integral part of government decision making structures in Washington and in the field where its expertise in collection, analysis and operations had gained increased respect”.  The CIA grew very quickly during the times of the Cold War, because of the increased aggressiveness of international communism.  As mandated by the National Security Act of 1947, the CIA became a “preeminent intelligence organization”.   During his term as president, Reagan recognized the importance of intelligence to inform his decision, giving yet another example of how strategic analysis helped in the policy making decisions of those within the government of the United States.

The Cold War

Spies were also extremely instrumental during the cold war, spies and spying became part of the Cold War game. Both sides in the Cold War used spies as a way of acquiring knowledge of what the other was doing or to spread false knowledge of what one side was doing. Spies could become double agents and the whole story has developed a rather romantic image as a result of Western film portrayals of spies. However, for all of them spying were far from romantic – it was a highly dangerous job and many worked knowing that there was barely any chance of being rescued if caught. A few were exchanged for other spies – but prison or execution were the more usual punishments for being caught – either by betrayal or making errors.

Both sides involved in the Cold War used spies from all types of background. The ability to seamlessly blend into the background was vital. The Soviet Union also employed men from Britain to spy on Britain – men who had become disaffected by the British way of life and looked to the east. The most famous were the Cambridge Five – graduates who as a result of their background had got into high positions in the British Establishment. Throughout the era of the Cold War information covertly acquired in Britain ended up with the KGB. British agents in the Soviet Union paid a high price for their betrayal.

…the success of intelligence agencies in protecting the nation is never reported in the media for obvious reasons. It is only their defeats, mistakes and controversies that are reported.

The extent to which the Establishment had been infiltrated first became publicly apparent in 1951 when Guy Burgess and Donald Maclean fled Britain for the Soviet Union. They had been tipped off that they were about to be arrested by Kim Philly who from 1944 to 1946 had been head of counter-intelligence activities at British Intelligence. All three men were part of the “Cambridge Five”. Burgess and Maclean had passed over to the Soviet Union thousands of confidential documents.

In the past, agencies have always worked for the benefit of their country and their country only, and the future doesn’t seem very different…

Current Situation

Since the very beginning of time and the beginning of warfare the role of intelligence has been critical. Knowing where your enemy is, what he is doing, what artillery he possesses and what he is capable of, has always been a huge advantage. Intelligence acts as the escutcheon of a nation. However the success of intelligence agencies in protecting the nation is never reported in the media for obvious reasons. It is only their defeats, mistakes and controversies that are reported. The civilian populations do not know of and cannot even fathom the quantum of power possessed by intelligence agencies. Herein lays one of the greatest advantages of intelligence agencies today. The fact that they can carry out their operations (including- finding out the whereabouts of enemies and their capabilities) successfully without being splashed into the media is the biggest advantage.

Having said all of this, the current situation of Intelligence Agencies is an intricate one. With no explicit jurisdiction or comprehensive set of laws actually confining their activities the scope for covert operations is massive. These missions are important to one party but detrimental to the other. Striking the balance between allowing intelligence agencies to carry out activities to promote their citizens security and the limitations to these activities is vital. Hence, the role of intelligence in modern warfare is still somewhat obscure. And it is to the Heads of the most important Intelligence Agencies to decipher this obscurity.

In order to evaluate the role of intelligence in warfare, we must first sum up the some activities of intelligence agencies in the past decade.

Some experts argue that fighting Islamic terror in the region is just a contrivance in the hands of the MI6 and the CIA. Their main aim as such is to gain stable control of the fuel and energy available in the region.

MI6 and CIA in Afghanistan

Afghanistan has a highly strategic value and has been the battlefield for many of the world’s mighty nations owing to its unmanned or unexploited mineral reserves and its geopolitical where-about.  In 1979, Pakistan’s Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) together with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s intelligence under the cover of MI6, gathered over 30,000 Islamist militants from 42 nations in ISI’s sanctuaries, with the preliminary motive to fight against the Soviet forces, which made an attempt to invade Afghan soil. Ironically, the same militants are currently being used to weaken the financial and moral values of the United State in the form of terrorist attacks. Be it the 9/11 attacks or a plethora of many others that are not unknown. Financially, the Mujahedeen seem to be successful as the USA spends an enormous amount of their defence budget in their fight against Islamist terrorism in the Middle East.

However, the CIA and MI6 have been somewhat successful in recent times visa-vie Afghanistan: For example, in 2001, the CIA’s Special Activities Division units were the first U.S. forces to enter Afghanistan. The CIA developed the plan for the invasion of Afghanistan. U.S. Army Special Forces and the Northern Alliance (which is an Islamic military front that strives for the “salvation” of Afghanistan) combined to overthrow the Taliban in Afghanistan with minimal loss of U.S. lives. They did this without the need for conventional military firepower. It need not be reiterated but for the sake of the international Intelligence community it was the secret service that triumphed. It was the brains that triumphed over the brawn. Considering that, 350 Special Forces soldiers, 100 C.I.A. officers and 15,000 Northern Alliance fighters routed a Taliban army 50,000 strong.

However, nothing in the world is at it seems. Deception and duplicity play a major part. Some experts argue that fighting Islamic terror in the region is just a contrivance in the hands of the MI6 and the CIA. Their main aim as such is to gain stable control of the fuel and energy available in the region. In doing so they would successfully cut off the possibility of China, Iran and other nations that their intelligence deems as “threatening” from having access to this fuel.

…the defeat and withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan, along with the decade old war in Afghanistan reflect the involvement of the CIA and the SIS…

Moving on, another activity that needs to be put under the limelight is ghost money. The CIA and MI6 together have sent 10s of millions of dollars to the Afghani President Hamid Karzai in an attempt to aid the weakened Afghani economy and of course to fight terrorism. This financial aid has been heavily criticized. Firstly, patriotic Afghani MPs claim that, “Accepting such money is a big insult to Afghanistan. All those who accepted the cash payments have betrayed the nation.” Secondly, there have been accusations that a large majority of the funds have gone towards bribing the country’s political elite.

In a visit to the United States by President Hamid Karzai in January 2012 the United States stated that it was open to withdrawing all of its troops by the end of 2014. This has been criticized, as some believe that Afghanistan will not be able to sustain itself from the Taliban with the withdrawal of NATO troops. However, London and Washington’s top priority in terms of foreign policy remains and will remain to maintain formal bilateral ties with Afghanistan in coordination, consultation and agreement with Pakistan’s ISI and their own respective secret service intelligence agencies.

In conclusion, the defeat and withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan, along with the decade old war in Afghanistan reflect the involvement of the CIA and the SIS behind the crisis, terror, suicide bombings and assassinations in the region (these atrocities are being committed not just on the Afghani population but on themselves as well). Which brings us back to the age-old question, “Do Intelligence Agencies ends justify their means?”   Furthermore, will the current crisis in Afghanistan continue until Afghanistan shows some repudiation towards strategies of the MI6 and the CIA and maybe act as the field for other agencies to enter? Or, will the current crisis in Afghanistan worsen if Afghanistan shows some repudiation towards the MI6 and the CIA?

Mossad’s Indirect Attack on Iran:

February 2012: Iran convinces the Azeri ambassador to complain that Mossad used Azerbaijan as a base for covert operations against Iran. Over the next few days, a war of words arises between Iran and Israel.  The situation comes to a head when Israeli Mossad assassins carry out Iranian nuclear scientist assassination-style coordinated attacks on Israeli embassy cars in New Delhi, India and Tbilisi, Georgia. Despite the fact that Iran has no record of assassinating Israeli or other foreign leaders, diplomats or scientists (which they shouldn’t of course), the finger was pointed at Iran. Iran obviously refuted its involvement in both cases. In fact Iran claims has that Israelis attacked their own embassies to demonize Iran and fuel anti-Iran hysteria in the US and Europe. To an extent Israel was successful, and USA did immediately condone the attacks.  However, the International community is not unaware of Mossad’s role in the attacks.

…lack of stealth in covertness poses a risk to the Global Intelligence network at large.

The Want of Stealth in Covert Operations

Covert operations play a vital role in Intelligence. With the increase in the number of covert missions today, many agencies are getting caught and being apprehended for their furtive operations. This lack of stealth in covertness poses a risk to the Global Intelligence network at large.

To put this into perspective it is necessary for this Ad Hoc Committee to point out some loopholes in surreptitiousness that have resulted in agencies being caught. These are a few examples that we believe bring shame to the Intelligence Coterie. The Intelligence Coterie cannot condone such discrepancies any further.

1. National Intelligence Agency (NIA) South Africa October 2005

In October 2005, the NIA was rocked by allegations that senior officials had been engaged in spying on African National Congress member Saki Macozoma. Following an investigation by the Inspector-General of Intelligence, three senior officials, including the director were suspended. The alleged spying took place against the backdrop of a developing power struggle between factions in the ANC. In December 2005, the Sunday Times newspaper claimed that the South African Police Service was preparing to raid the offices of the NIA as part of investigations into the matter.

2. AgenciaBrasileira de Intelligencia (ABIN) Brazil September 2008

On September 1, 2008, President LuizInacio Lula da Silva suspended the leadership of the ABIN, including its director, and ordered an investigation into allegations that appeared in Veja magazine of phone tapping of senior figures including the heads of both the Senate and the Supreme Court. The ignominy of being caught for something so simple and novice as wire trapping is unbearable for the ABIN till date.

3. DepartamentoAdministrativo de Seguridad (DAS) Colombia 2008 

October 2008: The head of the DAS Maria del Pilar Hurtado stepped down from her post after allegations that the agency had conducted surveillance on left-wing parties (opposition to the President, Uribe). The incident has been dubbed “The Colombian Watergate.” in reference to the Watergate scandal in the United States involving President Richard Nixon and wiretapping. Hurtado has taken asylum in Panama, which is not permitting her extradition back to Columbia.

The FBI has tripled its counter-terrorism force since the World Trade Centre attack and the CIA has created its Counter-Terrorism Centre (CTC) to deal with the threat at the highest civilian and military levels.

December 2011: Due to ongoing scandals, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos announces that the DAS was to be dissolved. DAS‟s “official” functions included intelligence gathering, counter-intelligence, collection of evidence at crime scenes, providing security for high-ranking officials and immigration control.  Now, the purpose of the new agency that may be set up will purely be for “domestic-only” purposes.

Role of Intelligence Agencies in Counterinsurgency (COIN) 

Counterinsurgency or COIN is defined as the blend of comprehensive intelligence and military efforts designed to simultaneously contain insurgency and address its root causes. Unlike conventional warfare, non-military means are often the most effective elements, but military forces do play an enabling role.

Furthermore, a historical review of COIN warfare reveals that no single mission has been effectively carried out without the use of proper “actionable intelligence.” Potent COIN warfare, in its essence, attains greater potency through not only human intelligence (HUMINT) but also intelligence gained through national technical means (such as signals, imagery, measurement and signature intelligence; SIGINT, IMINT and MASINT, respectively).

It is incontrovertible that no set of rules can be universally applicable to all the diverse situations of insurgency that now exist and will arise. However, history does repeat itself and hence successful COIN tactics from the past can be put down and followed by all governments and Intelligence Agencies in the years to come.

Modern counterinsurgency successes have featured three universal characteristics: the existence of a powerful police and intelligence organization under the direction of a single authority; a robust physical presence throughout the country which feeds the intelligence picture; and the establishment of a professional indigenous police and military force to augment, and eventually, replace external forces. These characteristics have been in place in all the successful counterinsurgency efforts. Moreover, the absence of any one of these three, places the overall outcome in jeopardy.

…without a comprehensive and firm policy of all the intelligence agencies and political leaders involved, terrorism will continue to present a real threat to future generations.

It is necessary to mention that insurgency and guerrilla warfare are closely linked. The essence of guerrilla warfare lies in Mao Zedong belief that “The guerrilla must swim in the people as the fish swims in the sea.”Though that may be true, we can safely say that it is of paramount importance for intelligence agencies to provide the information to the military sector. The military sector must then make a distinction between enemy combatants and non-combatants.

Role of Intelligence in Counterterrorism 

The work of intelligence against terrorism today is undoubtedly a gruelling task. The significance of intelligence in counter-terrorism stems from three main drivers: Its role in pre- emption and disruption of terrorist activity; its role in post-incident investigations; and its contribution to preventive/protective security measures.

The role of intelligence is counterterrorism is the same as its role in any field of modern warfare. Its work is split into 4 stages of the intelligence cycle: The first being planning and direction. In which the intelligence officials direct assets and resources to certain ends; next is the collection of data. As discussed above this includes HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT, MASINT and OPINT (open sources, such as television or radio); the third stage is processing and analysis of the information in which raw information is converted to “intelligence” per se; the final fourth phase is the dissemination of data which implies that the intelligence is sent to the required agents, decision makers and others that work in liaison with the agencies.

From the organizational point of view, the security and intelligence agencies of many nations have taken serious steps to improve their capabilities and this Ad Hoc Committee of Intelligence Agencies would like to take this opportunity to commend the work of these agencies. The FBI has tripled its counter-terrorism force since the World Trade Centre attack and the CIA has created its Counter-Terrorism Centre (CTC) to deal with the threat at the highest civilian and military levels. The German BND authorities have greatly enhanced their security units dealing (and successfully at that) with right-wing activities. The Russian GRU has formed new elite units in order to cope with the threat of terrorist attacks against its nuclear facilities, and so on. Not just regional, but bilateral international cooperation has improved.

The purview of threat to national security is actually quite vast; it ranges from a nuclear threat, to a biological, chemical, cyber or even an economic one. It is only Intelligence Agencies that are first aware of the threat and have the ability to do something…

However, without a comprehensive and firm policy of all the intelligence agencies and political leaders involved, terrorism will continue to present a real threat to future generations. It is your job, Heads of Intelligence Agencies to present your respective agencies explicit policy at this conclave. The policy that is specific to the current terrorist related situation that your country is facing today.

Role of Intelligence in Promoting Security

As explained earlier, Intelligence Agencies follow a particular cycle, the “intelligence cycle” that begins with the planning phase and ends with dissemination. This cycle is most definitely followed in promoting homeland or national security. However, there are a few specifications.

Firstly, shall there be a threat to national security, Agencies must first understand the threat, and investigate its legitimacy After assessing the threat and converting raw data to intelligence they give their material to the important political decision makers. Next they carry out their covert or non-covert activities to curb refute the threat to security. It is necessary to be aware that failure to work within a specific and compact timeline could and would result in a catastrophic scenario.

These threats are called Key Intelligence Questions or KIQs. KIQs can be broadly divided into two categories: Immediate or on-going KIQs, which would include an imminent or direct threat to homeland security; next, Long-term or Strategic KIQs. These KIQs include adapting to the changing situation of certain threats to security (such as narco-terrorism) or focusing strategically on a certain situation that might emerge.

The purview of threat to national security is actually quite vast; it ranges from a nuclear threat, to a biological, chemical, cyber or even an economic one. It is only Intelligence Agencies that are first aware of the threat and have the ability to do something about it within an appropriate time frame. It can be said that that safety and security of civilians lies in the hands of primarily and only Intelligence Agencies.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Anant Mishra

is a security analyst with expertise in counter-insurgency and counter-terror operations. His policy analysis has featured in national and international journals and conferences on security affairs.

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