Geopolitics

Reviewing India’s Foreign Policy: From Struggling Regional Power to Potential Super Power
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 11 May , 2015

International Stand and Blocs

Pakistan

The joyous moments of Indian independence shall always be tainted with the bloody memories of partition. After six and a half decades, Pakistan continues to be a challenge to India’s foreign policy. The two nations are often termed as “blood brothers”. The two countries are diluted in a similar ethnic mix, but they also consider each other as enemies. Pakistan is a victim of its own oppression and yet it devotes it resources to undermine India’s power.

The UN mandate authorised a plebiscite in Kashmir once Pakistani forces withdraw. Sadly, UN failed to resolve the issue and till today, Kashmir remains a heated argument between India and Pakistan.

Kashmir

During the partition, each member state was given a choice, a choice of joining any one of the two country countries. Kashmir’s maharaja took quiet a time to decide his stand and when Pakistan sent his troops, Kashmir’s maharaja quickly acceded to India. Indian forces retaliated heavily against the invaders. Shocked by this stand, India dragged Pakistan to the UN, but faced disappointment. The UN mandate authorised a plebiscite in Kashmir once Pakistani forces withdraw. Sadly, UN failed to resolve the issue and till today, Kashmir remains a heated argument between India and Pakistan. Till now, India and Pakistan have fought four wars (in 1947-48, 1965, 1971, and 1999) and many across the ceasefire line, all initiated by Pakistan. Bangladesh Liberation war was another reason for conflict between the two.

Terrorism and Cross Border Tensions

India has been witnessing many terror strikes, especially those originating from Pakistan. Terrorist organizations such as Lashkar-e-Toiba are explicitly working for the ISI. 26/11 was once such incident that brought great grief to the nation, losing one of the top counter terrorist officers, the nation went into shock. Terrorism is an issue that demands pressing attention and immediate solution. Besides Kashmir, India has faced numerous provocative rounds of fire from the Pakistani counter parts along the border. There has been much proliferation of incidents, all emerging from the Pakistan side.

USA

India’s relation with the US has been quite fragile in the past. US opposed our non aligned stand during the entire cold war. To counter our like towards a communist state, Washington leaned towards the Islamic state of Pakistan. This led to India’s inclination towards the Soviet Union. Although after the cold war ended, relations between New Delhi and Washington started to warm up. The nuclear explosion of 1998 brought another twist in the relations as the nation came under heavy sanctions from the US. With the coming of Bush Administration in the 2000’s, strategic partnership between the two nations became headlines.

The world’s largest democracy and the world’s oldest democracy are proud sovereign nations. Their relationships between the two have miles to go.

Currently, US are an employer to most of the top IT professionals, especially Indians residing there. India on the other hand imports some of the essential products and services to the US telecom companies. India and the USA have also staged several partnerships in fields ranging from food security to spacecrafts (most importantly the civil nuclear agreement).

The world’s largest democracy and the world’s oldest democracy are proud sovereign nations. Their relationships between the two have miles to go.

Bangladesh

India is very concerned about Bangladesh. It’s rapidly declining economy, growing instability, declining governance and the rising Islamist forces pose a threat to India’s national security. China has been influencing the region. India – Bangladesh relations have been quiet sour due to the increasing security related issues such as arms trafficking, movement of people, transit and a gas pipeline have not been given importance in Dhaka.

Dhaka wants to address the issues on the sharing of water of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and other rivers along with trade and variety of border related concerns, including smuggling, but internal conflicts preoccupies it elsewhere. To ensure Bangladesh and India smooth relations, Trust between the two is a must. But in the race of trust, China seems to be going ahead.

With the recent change of power in Iran, there are signs of improvement in its relations with the US. Relations between India and Iran are tangled in a web that may prove difficult to solve.

India and the Middle East

The Middle East is a very important block for India; especially when we talk about petroleum supply and employment. The Middle East is an area of vast ethnic diversity and political instability, though influenced by Islamist fundamentalism and terrorism. For India it is a land of opportunity and terrorism.

There are three nations in particular that India keeps an eye for.

Iran

India, a part of the Indus civilisation has been interacting with neighbouring civilisations from decades. However, the interaction came to a halt after the invasion of the British. Post Independence, India’s relation with Iran revived but during the Cold war, it became complicated.

Today, relations with Iran have been quite deteriorating due to our talks with US since Washington still holds a hostile posture towards Iran. Post 1979 revolution in the Iran and the hostage crisis, relations between Iran and the US became hostile. Iran’s aggressive policy towards Israel and sympathetic policy with Palestine made difficult for India to maintain relations with Iran without offending its other partners.

Friendship with Iran has some advantages to look for. India is a developing nation and requires large amount of petroleum to run the wheels of its economy. Most of the petroleum India has to import. Today, energy security is a vital question that every nation needs to answer and for India, Iran is a vital source. For India, Iran is an influential Islamic state that can counter Pakistan’s anti propaganda in the Islamic world.

With the recent change of power in Iran, there are signs of improvement in its relations with the US. Relations between India and Iran are tangled in a web that may prove difficult to solve.

Saudi’s finances many Islamist and terrorist groups. Hence, terrorism is an issue that India needs to address.

Saudi Arabia

Due to the bipolar nature of politics throughout the cold war, Saudi Arabia and India were not technically on good terms. However after the end of the cold war, Saudi – India relations grew better.

Saudi Arabia is one of the largest crude oil exporters of India, a commodity which we need the most. Furthermore, a large number of Indian populations are actively working there, which makes the relation between the two nations, more important. The interests of the two nations are far than these.

India is a home to second largest Muslim population, a nation that sends many Muslims to the holy shrines at Mecca and Medina. Saudi’s finances many Islamist and terrorist groups. Hence, terrorism is an issue that India needs to address. Saudi authorities may also be uncomfortable with improvements in Indian relations with Israel.

Israel

There has been a steady strengthening of India’s relationship with Israel ever since India established full diplomatic relations with Israel in 1992. Fighting terrorism is a major issue and challenge for both India and Israel. Both the nations are democratic, states with large Muslim minorities, and face a threat from Islamic terrorism, which is again sponsored by its neighbours. Hence, these similar circumstances have created greater understanding between the two.

…India have to carefully manage it because it shares relationship with many other nations, viewing Israel as enemy number one.

Healthy relations with Israel benefits India in many fields. Huge investment in the field of research and development, Israeli weapons are enabled with “top of the class” technology in the international arms market, even better than European and American products. Israel is always keen to supply defence technology to India as it wants to balance the power the South Asia.

However, the range of issues that occurs with India and Israel bilateral relationship, India have to carefully manage it  because it shares relationship with many other nations, viewing Israel as enemy number one.

European Union

India enjoys a healthy relationship with the European Union, dating their year of friendship from 1960’s. India was also the first Asian nation to establish relations with the European Union. The EU is India’s largest partner in trade, accounting for 20% of India’s trade. EU and India have established numerous agreements from nuclear energy to environmental protection. Their strategic partnership is oldest and deeper ties explain the confidence India has on EU.

Africa

Today, India has ties with almost every nation in the African continent. Indian government is very active to with respect to development in Africa. Indian businesses are very actively assisting African countries in achieving economic stability. Despite competition from China, India plays a very important role in Africa’s development.

Given the geographical location and ethnic structure of India and Sri Lanka, India cannot turn away from the happenings in Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka

India’s relations with the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka have always been on and off. India, being Sri Lanka’s only neighbour with enormous presence of Tamil populations; ethnic presence has been the only factor for discussion between the two. Both the nations have strategic importance in South Asia and have discussed to make common strategic protection on Indian Ocean. Given the geographical location and ethnic structure of India and Sri Lanka, India cannot turn away from the happenings in Sri Lanka. India’s intervention in the Sri Lankan civil war had an impact on Sri Lanka’s attitude towards India. Sri Lanka “suspects” on India’s moves. However Sri Lanka fails to understand the New Delhi’s role of “good Samaritan”.

Despite the maritime agreements between the two, the issue of water boundaries still exists between the two. The main issue is the status of Kachchativu, a small barren island in the Palk Bay area. Through the 1974 agreement, India agreed to Sri Lanka’s sovereignty over Kachchativu, but with some safeguards to its Indian fishermen. At times, the Indian fishing boats strayed into the Sri Lankan waters. In due course of time, the Sri Lankan Navy became unfriendly to the Indian fishermen. Consequently, indiscriminate firing and killing of Indian fishermen became common. On 24th February, 2013, politicians from Tamil Nadu accused the Sri Lankan navy for attacking Indian fisherman near Kachchativu. Hence, a pro active policy towards the Sri Lankan counterpart is a must not just for the sake of the Tamil population in the country as but also for its own security and to counter the influence of China in Sri Lanka.

Nepal

Relations between Nepal and India are unique for many reasons ranging from geographical to cultural ties, and extensive institutional and social relationships. A cultural, economic and geographical factor along with the bond of religion greatly influences their bilateral relations. Despite some troubles in the past, India’s relations with Nepal are close, stable and mutually beneficial for both the nations. Nepal and India shares the “movement of free path”. The Nepal India peace treaty of 1950 is the backbone of their relationship. Nepalese enjoy many benefits in India, from educational to employment, equivalent to those that are enjoyed by an Indian.

…Nepal is not adequately appreciative of all that India has done and provided for the country.

India extensively supports the government of Nepal by undertaking development projects in the fields of infrastructure, health, rural and community development. India is the largest trade partner and biggest source of foreign investment and tourism. Collaboration between the two on water resources are again an example of friendship between the two. However, Indo- Nepalese relations are not without difficulties. Nepal professes that India has encroached on its borders, setting up military encampments and other official as well as unofficial settlements at 71 different places. By Indian perception, Nepal is not adequately appreciative of all that India has done and provided for the country. Today, by all accounts, India and Nepal shares a healthy and bilateral relationship.

China

India and China were once home to great civilisations. Trade and communication between the countries are prehistoric. Talking about 20th century, both the nations have emerged as the face of developing world. They have restored their friendship, at least tried to. India and China are an absolute example of economic growth in the 21st century.

These two grooming power nations have had a rocky relationship from the start. I have classified their relationship into three parts:

Without a doubt, India and China are the two most populous countries in the world. Hence both the nations require ea cloud of security and cooperation.

Competition – “It’s just mine”

Western nations often view India and China as emerging Asian economic powers. Some experts have coined them together as “Chindia”. However, the truth is little different. The Chinese economy is far more advanced than that of India’s and is the second largest economy (actual dollars) in the world, whereas India stands eleventh. China is a part of globalised economy before India gained independence. The 2008 Beijing Olympics was an absolute example of how the “dragon” out ways our “shera”. The two nations don’t even stand together when we talk about sporting competitions. No meaningful competition exists between the two.

Co-operation: “It’s yours and mine”

Without a doubt, India and China are the two most populous countries in the world. Hence both the nations require ea cloud of security and cooperation. There are many challenges before they even tend to sign a bilateral treaty. One of the most important challenges is the security. The Border Defence Co operation Agreement between India and China, signed by both sides at the conclusion of talks between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang at the Great Hall of the People was to ensure peace on the borders. While China has become the sole player in the hardware manufacturing business; India has left its mark as the software king. Well, in matters like these, China and India compliment each other. Now the question is whether these two countries cooperate during a politically aggravated conflict.

Conflict – “Not yours, its mine”

Nehru coined the popular slogan, “Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai”. But after the 1962 war it quickly became “Hindi Chini Bye Bye”. India faced a humiliating defeat from the Chinese forces, which not only won a decisive victory but also secured 23,200 sq. km. of Indian Territory.

India as a matter of fact, has a very little choice, on the ground of its own freedom and principles, India cannot rewrite freedom of speech for the Tibetans.

India and China share the longest disputed border in the world and the situation became even more unclear post 1962. Recently, Beijing has taken pains to remind New Delhi about its claim over another 92,000 sq. km. of Indian Territory mainly in the state of Arunachal Pradesh. There have been numerous incidents along the border in the past three years. It seems as if Beijing has made a conscious decision to keep Indians on their toes.

But the problems do not end here; Tibet is another major cause of concern between the two countries. Even though, India recognises Tibet to be an integral part of China, but it also provides refuge to H.E. Dalai Lama and Buddhist monks. India is quiet conscious on this subject, offending the Chinese. But the fact of the matter is that India has little choice. India as a matter of fact, has a very little choice, on the ground of its own freedom and principles, India cannot rewrite freedom of speech for the Tibetans. Nor it can play the cards of “offensive and strategic response” against the superpower, which is extremely tricky on the issue of Tibet.

A Princeton University Professor once wrote “India’s competition with China is not just economic or geostrategic; in a sense it is existential- a clash of two competing political systems, bases of state legitimacy, and ways of ordering state society relations”.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Anant Mishra

is a security analyst with expertise in counter-insurgency and counter-terror operations. His policy analysis has featured in national and international journals and conferences on security affairs.

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