The Pakistanis have spent decades hoping to have their cake and eat it too; assuming that they can get Saudi and other oil rich Muslim countries financial help with no strings attached. However the recent news in American media which Pakistan has vehemently denied that Saudis are asking nuclear warheads from Pakistan and the Pakistan parliament refusing to send Pakistani troops to Yemen to fight for Saudi Arabia led coalition in Yemen, They are now discovering that, sadly, bills do have to be paid. And they won’t be allowed to get away with too many additional refusals for paybacks.
A minister in the United Arab Emirates has already threatened that Pakistan would “pay a heavy price” for its continued neutrality.
Last month in April Saudi Arabia asked Pakistan for military aircrafts, warships and soldiers on the ground to fight the Iran backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. After dilly dallying for more than two weeks Pakistani Army got their parliament to pass a resolution denying these troops to Saudi Arabia. This has annoyed Saudi Arabia and the Pakistanis are coming under heavier pressure from their Arab allies: A minister in the United Arab Emirates has already threatened that Pakistan would “pay a heavy price” for its continued neutrality. Saudi-Pakistani relations took off in the 1970s due to a variety of reasons, which include natural affinity between big Islamic states, Pakistan’s ability to export labourers to the Gulf and the US-led response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, which transformed both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan into the Cold War’s front-line states.
From the start of this relationship, two things were clear: that Saudi Arabia viewed Pakistan as a unique military partner able to plug the desert kingdom’s inherent security vulnerabilities and, second, that the Saudis were determined to cement this alliance through the funding of a vast network of personal, commercial and business partnerships which ultimately drew in most of Pakistan’s ruling elite. Saudi Arabia bankrolled large chunks of Pakistan’s nuclear programme precisely because the Saudis saw it as their own route to eventual nuclear power status, should Iran acquire such a capability. Saudi credits also allowed Pakistan to withstand the economic sanctions, which followed after their nuclear tests in 1998.
Saudis want Pakistan’s involvement in Yemen because it wants to convey the impression that the entire Muslim world is standing up against the Iran backed Houthi rebels in Yemen who have thrown out the Saudi backed government from there. Saudis also want to convey the warning to Iran that if they do not behave then they become vulnerable from East where Pakistan shares a 900 km long border with Iran. The problem with Pakistan is that if they act difficult with Iran then Iran can create real problem in Pakistan in their Baluchistan province which is in open revolt against Pakistani Government.
The problem with Pakistan is that if they act difficult with Iran then Iran can create real problem in Pakistan in their Baluchistan province which is in open revolt against Pakistani Government.
Similarly Iran can play a great spoil sport in Afghanistan where Pakistan is quite confident that they will be able to install Afghan Taliban there sooner than later and then rule the roost. As it is, currently Pakistan is in grip of heavy sectarian conflict involving Sunnis and Shias. After Iran itself, the largest concentration of Shi’ite Muslims is in Pakistan, where they account for around 26 million out of the country’s 190 million inhabitants. Pakistan is already suffering from unprecedented levels of sectarian violence, and that would clearly intensify if the country’s rulers are seen as engaging directly in the Sunni-Shi’ite war which now tears the Middle East apart.
It will not be long before Pakistan will be forced to break its neutrality in the current Sunni –Shia conflict raging in Middle East and Yemen with Saudi Arab on the side of Sunnis and Iran on the side of Shias. Saudi Arabs insecurity has been further enhanced by the recent Iran-American nuclear deal. Saudis are convinced that Iran either has the nuclear bomb or is very near to having it. So it is demanding the return of favours from Pakistan in terms of nuclear war head. There was a recent report in American media that Pakistan has already transferred the said bomb to Saudis a fact denied by Pakistan. This denial however cannot be taken seriously because of the propensity of Pakistanis to lie.
India should continue maintaining its neutrality with both Saudi Arabia and Iran keeping in view the fact that we have very large population of both Sunni and Shia sects at home…
It is important for India to play its cards deftly. Pakistan is firmly in the china camp and will never be our friend. So India must optimise its decade old friendship with Iran. India should continue maintaining its neutrality with both Saudi Arabia and Iran keeping in view the fact that we have very large population of both Sunni and Shia sects at home at the same time we must cosy up to Iran especially after the US has agreed to loosen the restriction regime on Iran after US-Iran nuclear deal.
It is good thing that despite Pakistan offering to Saudi Arabia of acting as middlemen to iron out the differences between Iran and Saudis both of them are not in listening mood. As for transfer of nuclear technology to Saudis by Pakistan, India must make suitable noises as it is not in our favour. Already ISIS the new caliphate is saying that they may obtain the nuclear bomb from Pakistan to blow it in America. We must also play on this fear of western countries.
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We generally think that Baluchistan and the so-called Northern areas are the only trouble spots for Pakistan. We some how tend to forget that Sins too is on the boil because of discontent in equal measure among the Sindhi’s and the Mohazir settlers. India must deftly calibrate its Pakistan policy to cut Pakistan to its size so that its larger than life ambitions of ‘netagiri’ of the Islamic world are nipped in the bud.