Geopolitics

Pakistan will not change its tactics of inflicting Low Cost War on India
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 10 May , 2017

Every time there is a Pakistan-sponsored terrorist strike on Indian Army post close to the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir, or across the international Border (IB) elsewhere, there is a hue and cry in the country, with people demanding revenge on the rogue State. The clamour for retribution dies down after the martyrs have been consigned to flames amid heart-rending scenes in their respective villages, located in almost every State of the country. Soon enough, there is another attack and the same sequence follows.

Pakistan has got away with the most brazen terrorist actions carried out in various countries by jihadis, whose links to Pakistan were well established over the years. Therefore, Pakistan is under no compulsion to change its strategy.

From 1999 onwards, these attacks, particularly on the Army posts, have followed a set pattern. Whenever India has offered a visible hand of friendship to the civilian government in Pakistan, some well known forces, who do not want peace to return to our borders, immediately come into play to thwart any further mutual reconciliatory moves. Just to quote only a few examples: after Vajpayee’s bus yatra to Lahore, we were presented with an audacious and extremely adverse military situation in Kargil ; after the present PM’S sudden visit to Pakistan during the marriage ceremony of Nawaz Sharrief’s granddaughter, Pakistan- sponsored jihadis carried out an attack on one of India’s most strategic Air Force stations at Pathankot, close to the International border; and now, Pakistan resorts to the most brutal action by decapitating two of our soldiers close to Krishana Ghati sector, south of Pir Panjal Range, after Indian industrialist, Sajjan Jindal, a friend of Nawaz Sharief, pursuing track II diplomacy with Pakistan, had met the latter in hill town of Murrie, a few days back.

These examples make it quite clear that Pakistan Army continues to exercise veto on its country’s Kashmir Policy. Ever since Gen Zia Ul Haq formulated the policy of ‘inflicting thousand cuts on India’ in eighties, the policy has undergone little change. World has taken no note of Pakistan’s sponsoring of cross-border terrorism in Kashmir/ rest of India. As a matter of fact, the world has taken no notice of Pakistan even sheltering some of the most dreaded terrorists belonging to Al Qaeda and Taliban for years. Pakistan has got away with the most brazen terrorist actions carried out in various countries by jihadis, whose links to Pakistan were well established over the years. Therefore, Pakistan is under no compulsion to change its strategy.

It costs Pakistan very little in terms of financial investment to continue sending Jihadis to Kashmir or into the rest of India whenever its tactical objectives dictate such a course of action. The manpower is provided by its ‘Jihad Factories’ run by the likes of Hafiz Syed and Azhar Masood. Money for the boarding/lodging, training, equipping, arming and launching of these Jihadis, is provided by Pakistan’s close friends like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, etc. Their coffers are further augmented by means of collections within their own country, organised through a chain of mosques/madrassas. While these jihadis pay with their own lives to execute the Pakistan Army’s nefarious plans, the latter continues to remain unaffected. After all, Pakistan never claims their dead bodies in order to completely deny its involvement in these terrorist acts.

India seems to have got stuck into a strategic stalemate, to escape which, it does not find an easy way out. The best it has been able to do so far, is to destroy Pakistani posts along the LoC through use of long range artillery and mortars.

The only time Pakistan army suffers losses is when India retaliates by means of heavy bombardment through mortars and artillery; a rare occurrence. Others who take the brunt of this proxy war are the Kashmiris themselves. Their situation is of a person riding a tiger. Having welcomed the foreign Jihadis in early nineties as Ghaziz, they now find themselves being totally manipulated by Pakistan on one hand, and radical Islamists in Kashmir, on the other. Under the circumstances, I don’t see Pakistan military backing off any time soon. And I don’t see Pakistan Jihadi factories stopping producing the gun fodder needed to keep Kashmir pot boiling.

India seems to have got stuck into a strategic stalemate, to escape which, it does not find an easy way out. The best it has been able to do so far, is to destroy Pakistani posts along the LoC through use of long range artillery and mortars. However, this is a short-term tactical solution, as these posts are rebuilt in quick time and also because Pakistan can inflict similar damage on Indian posts, located as these are, in eye-ball confrontation throughout the 785 Km LoC.

The recent successful ‘Surgical strike’ operation carried out after the Jihadi attack on the Army unit in Uri, cannot be replicated every time, as these are specialised operations meant to be carried out as a shock therapy. Besides, cross-border strikes deep into enemy territory entail enormous risk, which far outweigh the gains that these strikes might achieve. It may also be added that the targets of these strikes, the jihadi launch pads, are temporary in nature and can be rebuilt within a short time after the strike is over.

The question then arises: should India go to war with Pakistan to unshackle itself from the strategic stalemate in which it finds itself, at great cost to its morale and prestige as an emerging big power? Frankly speaking, no – because, there are numerous pitfalls in this course of action.

India cannot sit still and allow Pakistan to treat our troops with such ruthless barbarity. Besides, Indian government can ignore public opinion only at its peril.

Budget allocation to defence forces over the years has rarely matched the requirement of fresh acquisitions to augment the strength of our armed forces to face a two-front war. It is well-known that Indian DRDO has produced very little of value for our armed forces, despite incurring heavy expenditure over the years.

With around 1.62 % of GDP in budget allocation during the current financial year (least among our adversaries), our armed forces continue to be woefully short of wherewithal to fight a modern war. The deficiencies existing in Ships, artillery, tanks, air craft, high calibre ammunition, high altitude equipment, etc., are well recorded to be repeated here.

What should the government do under the circumstances? India cannot sit still and allow Pakistan to treat our troops with such ruthless barbarity. Besides, Indian government can ignore public opinion only at its peril.

Therefore, India should do everything short of war; open brinkmanship. If that leads to war, so be it. We are not the only ones who will suffer. At least it will stop the CPEC becoming operational as a first consequence. Pak cannot afford that and China cannot accept it, being the centre piece of ‘One road-One belt project’.

As far as Pakistan exercising its nuclear option as “first strike” is concerned, let India call its bluff. The nuclear Armageddon will still leave part of India surviving, but Pakistan for sure will be wiped out. 

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2 thoughts on “Pakistan will not change its tactics of inflicting Low Cost War on India

  1. INDIA MUST EXPLORE THE STRATEGIC SPACE BETWEEN A NUCLEAR CONFLICT AND SUB CONVENTIONAL WAR.REGULAR BATTALION , BRIGADE , DIVISION AND CORP SIZE ASSAULTS ON PAKISTAN ARMED FORCES WHERE ATTRITION OF WAR FIGHTING EQUIPMENT AND CULLING OF PAK ARMY OFFICERS AND MEN MUST BE DONE ON A REGULAR BASES .CREEPING CONQUERING AND ACQUIRING DOMINATING HEIGHTS AND PAK ARMY POSTS ALL ALONG THE FRONTIER MUST BE THE AIM TO OVERWHELM PAK ARMY GARRISONS OF GULTARI , GYARI , SKARDU HAZIPIR ,CHICKEN NECK CHAMBJAURIAN AND OTHER PLACES WHERE INDIAN ARMY IS AT DISADVANTAGEOUS POSITIONS DUE TO GEOGRAPHIC FEATURES .THE ARMY MUST RAPIDLY REORIENT ITSELF FOR OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS FROM THE QUAGMIRE OF COUNTERINSURGENCY GRID AND LET THE POLICE CRPF PARAFORCES CONTROL THE INTERNAL SECURITY . THE GOVT IF NOT SURE OF ITS HOME MINISTRY AND PARA FORCES MUST ALLOW THE RAPID INCREASE OF RR RIFLES TO DOMINATE THE ENTHRONED SEPARATISTS AND JIHADIS IN THE VALLEY.THE HEAVY COMBAT GROUPS IN PLAINS AND DESERTS MUST BE AT VERY SHORT NOTICE FOR THE COLDSTART MANUEVRE WITH DESTRUCTION OF PAK ARMY EUIPMENT MANPOWER AND TERRITORY TAKEN FOR DISINTEGRATION OF THE EVIL NATION

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