Indian Defence Review

On inspecting the core nature of China and Pakistan as states, it comes out clearly that both the states are starkly different from one another. China, a colossal communist capitalist state occupying 20% of Asian landmass, is  at heart Confucian. Pakistan on the other hand is a struggling capitalist Islamic Republic with a weak Federal Parliamentary government, in effect nigh being a Military Junta, and the Pakistani army is the raison d’être and soul of Pakistan. 

Albeit such stark differences, especially in the Military structure of these two countries, China-Pakistan hold strong ties. Pakistan was one of the first countries to recognize Mao Zedong’s Peoples Republic of China in 1950. The two countries have naturally come together after separately fighting wars with India in the 1960’s. 2018 will mark six decades of diplomatic and strategic ties between these two nations.

This article analyses the Sino-Pak relationship by assaying the Military strategy of China, and the deception card China plays to gain convergence, using Pakistan as a proxy to keep China afloat on the power scale in the Asian periphery.

How China plays the Deception card on Pakistan

China and Pakistan have labelled their relationship as All-Weather Friendship with Hu Jintao describing the ties of the two nations as  “Higher than mountains, deeper than Ocean” and Xi Jinping further adding “stronger than steel and sweeter than honey”[i]. While the Chinese are known to play the deception card by keeping the adversary vary of their intentions, such blandishment form the Chinese side is a clever snare to keep China-Pakistan relationship looking cosmetically beautiful in the eyes of the world which is perceived as an immediate threat by India, and the United States who sees this nexus as a thorn in their greater ambition in Asia and in the Indian Ocean.

There are four primary interests of China with Pakistan.

First, is the shared animosity towards India. Both the countries have separately been on war with India in the 1960s, and this has been the stepping-stone for the China-Pakistan relationship. Further, both the countries have border disputes with India. China claims the state of Arunachal Pradesh as South Tibet, while India lays claim on the disputed Aksai Chin which is currently controlled by China[ii].

On the other hand, Pakistan and India have seen three wars, share a hostile border and do not hold much economic ties. Both the countries see each other as a hedge against Asia’s other hegemon, India. Furthermore, this issue is strengthened by the emerging China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a project of connecting China and Pakistan with a series of Road, Rail and Energy Pipelines.

While the China-Pakistan relationship may have been carved out of shared antagonism towards India, today the China-India relationship is much more secure than ever before. China is India’s largest trading partner. In the financial year 2014-15 India’s total imports from China were around 62 Billion USD[iii].

India is China’s economic asset and maintaining cordial relations with India is paramount for China who can risk losing employment for millions of Chinese, along with irretrievable loss in billion dollar trade, if India turns sour towards China. Also, China is extremely vulnerable to the Sea Lanes of Communication in the Indian Ocean, which carries 84% of the total imports of the Chinese crude oil and hydrocarbons. Presence of the Indian Navy is well established throughout the western part of Indian Ocean, and Hu Jintao was quoted saying Sea Lanes are China’s weakness which adversaries can exploit. Hence, it becomes imperative for China to coincide with India.

Second are the Energy ties of China in Pakistan. China has been massively investing in Pakistan. The end point of an estimated 62 billion USD of the CPEC is the Gwadar port. China has considered multiple strategic uses of Gwadar port. Gwadar gives China access to the warm waters of Indian Ocean.  The western part of Indian Ocean is full-house of Oil, Mineral and hydrocarbons, all of which are the demands of the massive Chinese army and the economy. Gwadar port also acts as a counter route against the strait of Malacca, which is the current route of Chinese Oil exports from the Middle-East. Recent report points out the fact that Chinese are now set to build another artificial port near the Gwadar, which may be functional by 2021.

Even though the Chinese are working on turning the entire periphery around Gwadar into a naval base, they have shown more pessimism than optimism on the true significance of Gwadar, because the Indian Navy and the US Navy are already dominating the western part of Indian Ocean. India has three listening posts and seven bases in the shores of Indian Ocean region whereas the US Navy’s presence in Diego Garcia is also another area of concern for the Chinese. Due to this, the Chinese Naval vessels will be surrounded by the Indian and the American Fleets, thus isolated and away from the remaining Chinese Fleet.

Third, China sees Pakistan as a link between the Uyghur unrest, which has swept across the Xinjiang regions. Uyghurs are ethnic group of Turkic origin, and separatist sentiments have run high in the Uyghur people.  The last 30 years have been difficult for the Chinese government to control the turbulence that had been taking place amongst the Uyghurs. Between 1990 and 2001, these groups carried out approximately 200 attacks in China that killed 162 people[iv].

Researchers believe that such incidents have catalyzed the Pakistan-China relationship to taking measures against counter-terrorism cooperation and even induced China to work harder with Pakistan to support political stability in Pakistan.

Fourth, is the Arms trade of China with Pakistan. According to recent reports, China exported 35% of the total Arms manufactured to Pakistan. In the year 2015, Pakistan imported $565 million worth of arms from China[v].

Analyst believes that this trend is likely to continue and China will keep selling arms to Pakistan in coming years. Also, China helped Pakistan turn Nuclear, has built two nuclear reactors in Khushab and Chashma and continues to invest more in the Pakistani Nuclear domain.

Implication for India

While the China-Pakistan relationship is likely to grow and further deepen over concerns like balancing India, Uyghur Issues and Energy security, New Delhi does not need to worry about the dire strategic implication this relationship can bring for Indian national security. India-China relations are today far more secure than ever before; the 52 Billion USD trade deficit of India makes India an economic asset to China. The cost-benefit analysis carried out by researchers have pointed out that CPEC can be a failure and a debt massacre for Beijing, as China has some super ambitious energy projects in Pakistan which many analysts believe are unlikely to succeed. On the issue of Uygur unrest, as of recent, the Chinese government has been successful in calming the Uygur unrest. Although China has immensely helped Pakistan in their Nuclear program, China has never militarily helped Pakistan in wars against India. Chinese leaders literally saw Pakistan being torn into two pieces in 1971 as the Indian Army bisected and tore apart the then East Pakistan.

India’s vulnerabilities towards Pakistan have always been the support it has given to the terrorist organizations, which Pakistan uses as a tool of foreign policy to achieve its objective in Kashmir. India is especially concerned with regards to militant terrorist organizations like the  Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), LeT’s apparent charitable wing Jamaat-ud-Dawa and the Haqqani network.  Security of Chinese Investments will be the top priority of the Chinese government.  A peaceful and secure Pakistan, without the fear of Pakistani terrorist infiltrations, and sound health of the Pakistani governance is in the greater interest of China and hence China will continue to support Pakistan in its progress and development in “fight against terrorism and supports its neighbor in safeguarding its sovereignty”[vi]. Ultimately, defoliation of Pakistani terrorist organizations in the greater realm, is in India’s national interest.

Finally, for China, Pakistan is basically a proxy. The Indian strategic policy is Pakistan centric as India-Pakistan are each others’ arch military rivals, and this keeps the Indian military strategy leashed having limited options against China. Husain Haqqani writes “For China, Pakistan is a low-cost secondary deterrent to India”. “For Pakistan, China is a high-value guarantor of security against India.[vii]” For Pakistan, the relationship with China is paramount, whereas the same may not necessarily be true for China.

Courtesy: http://www.claws.in/1861/pakistan-china-all-weather-friendship-or-a-partnership-of-limited-cooperation-neha-surwade.html