Geopolitics

Kashmir Under Spotlight and Our Response
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 01 Dec , 2014

Kashmir has come under focus for all the reasons that should worry India. The LOC has recently become active, as there have been a large number of cease fire violations and hostile actions by our belligerent neighbour. On the other side, Chinese have increased pressure on the LAC as a result; the border incursions by PLA have gone up phenomenally. Our meek responses, to all these incidents have brought down the credibility of our nation internationally and also hurt our pride, in our own eyes. It is important to analyse the factors that have prompted these two neighbours in their changed stance on the LOC and the LAC respectively. It is not surprising that these two nations, who hold animosity towards India, are also all weather friends.   Essentially, the reasons as to why Pakistan and China have chosen to up the ante on our borders, in Jammu and Kashmir have to be searched. Should the Indian establishment view these incidents on LAC and LOC separately or there is something more than what meets the eye.

India in past decade or so has given a perception to the world that it is a weak state which is incapable in checking secessionism, terrorism, growing Naxal influence, compounded by severe law and order crisis in many of its large states.

Before we draw a conclusion, a quick regional scan will give us an outline of what is happening around India and what lies ahead in future. The geopolitics which is at play in this region, keeping India at the centre may hold some answers to our questions. I have briefly tried to touch upon some of the activities in the region around us, which are largely responsible for shaping up the events in Indian sub-continent and are discussed in the succeeding paragraphs.

India in past decade or so has given a perception to the world that it is a weak state which is incapable in checking secessionism, terrorism, growing Naxal influence, compounded by severe law and order crisis in many of its large states. The world off late, has witnessed a deeply divided Indian polity, unstable and weak government. The collation era is likely to continue in the near future which demoralises, those who wish to see a strong India. The economic down slide adds to the overall gloomy situation and presents before us a major challenge if India envisions itself playing an important role in the region. Indian foreign policy has failed miserably in winning unflinching support from its smaller neighbours. Bangladesh has a pro Indian government today, but it fails to show case to its people the advantages of being close to India, as the latter refuses to move forward on the issue of border enclaves and sharing of river waters so dear to then. Srilanka has gravitated towards Pakistan seeking civil nuclear cooperation, despite our help in their fight against LTTE, Nepal is steadily coming under the Chinese influence, we have also witnessed some anti-India sentiment in the recently held elections in the Himalayan Kingdom of Buthan and Burma in any case has been lost to the Chinese.

On the positive side however, India is trying to strengthen its posture along the LAC, by developing the Infrastructure and adding offensive capabilities to the army in the mountains. India off late has tried to challenge the hegemonic designs of Chinese in the South China Sea and in the series, It has tried to enter into a strategic cooperation with the South Koreans and the Japanese recently. India despite the American pressure continues to strengthen its ties with Iran.

China that has global ambitions and India is seen as a strong regional competitor, views Pakistan as a tool to keep India under check and maintain the regional balance just like many in the West who perceive it that way. Incidentally the Chinese have some or the other disputes with almost all its neighbours except North Korea and Pakistan. There is Tibetan uprising in progress and sporadic cases of self-immolation in this region bring a lot of shame to China internationally. There is a growing secessionist movement underway in Xingjian province which has ideological roots in Af-Pak region; a major cause of concern for them. The Chinese have deep suspicions over India, on its agenda in Tibet, since their arch enemy, Dali Lama moves with impunity in India and exercises his politics from Dharamsala.

The energy corridor passing through Karakoram pass from Gawadar port to Xingjiang and the other crossing Burma into China are part of larger strategy towards seeking energy security

The fastest growing economy in the world is energy hungry; it is eying the oil and gas reserves,  in South China Sea, as an assurance to its growth through the twenty first century, however this is being challenged by other countries of the region. The energy corridor passing through Karakoram pass from Gawadar port to Xingjiang and the other crossing Burma into China are part of larger strategy towards seeking energy security.  Taiwan, Korea and Japan continue to be predominant factors in overall strategic considerations for China. United States continues to exercise leverage in the Asia Pacific region and India is fast emerging as an important player. Everyone who feels threatened by the hegemonic designs of the dragon is trying to woo India to his side.

Pakistan has emerged as the most dangerous place on the earth. This nuclear armed nation has become the global exporter of terror, sectarian and regional divide in the country runs deep and it is a near failed state living at the mercy of the West and the Chinese.  This country has three major power centres today, the democratically elected government, the military and the Pakistani Taliban, each trying to carve out a different path and future for Pakistan. The common people pin their hopes on a democratic peaceful Pakistan, the feudal land lords and the fundamentalists look up to the military for their survival, while the Pakistani Taliban has totally a different agenda and aligns itself with the ideology of the Afghan Taliban and the Al-Qaida. The most dangerous of all, are the Pakistani Taliban, who believes democracy and all other modern phenomenon as un-Islamic. Their differences however merge when it comes to liberating Kashmir and dissecting India into thousand pieces.

Afghanistan is drawing close to an end, to the western domination and soon the Americans are going to withdraw from this country by the end of 2014.  A country with a weak national army, non-existent infrastructure and poppy driven economy is likely to witness the emergence of war lords on the scene, jostling for power. The perceived strategic depth in Afghanistan by the Pakistanis, is likely to emerge as a strategic nightmare, since the Taliban, Al-Qaida and Pak Taliban are ideologically aligned and they nurture a dream of controlling this region from Kabul to Karachi.

The beleaguered Assad’s regime in Syria finds support from Russia and China; the Indians appear to be with the Russians and the Chinese argument which is contrary to the US scheme of things.

The United States and the Indian interests do not coincide on the issues confronting the  Middle East region, which has recently witnessed turmoil and a wave of regime changes. India has not been supportive of the ways in which the West and the US have been providing support to the rebels, seeking change in various Arab countries. The beleaguered Assad’s regime in Syria finds support from Russia and China; the Indians appear to be with the Russians and the Chinese argument which is contrary to the US scheme of things.   On the other hand India is vital to the Americans in the South East Asia in containing China in the Asia Pacific region. India which is seen standing with China on issues related to Afghanistan, Iran and the Arab world against the US, it is that same India which stands with the US against the Chinese in the South East Region.

After running a scan through the region, we come back to our basic question of heightened military activity on the Kashmiri borders and try to justify the likely reasons associated with it. The biggest question troubling the international community today is of the scenario in Afghanistan post American withdrawal in 2014. The worst nightmare for all would be the return of Taliban to Kabul. A scenario that sends shivers across the whole region including the Pakistani establishment. In today’s settings, even the Taliban which was once supported by Pakistan will not serve the interest of our neighbour, if it comes back in power. Nevertheless Pakistan will exercise its leverage through the Haqqanis and the likes, to work out a favourable regime in Kabul. Americans understand this very well and they will like to keep Pakistan to their side even after the 2014 withdrawal, to ensure stability in the region.  A recent statement after the Poonch incident on the LOC, given by US States Department spokesperson Marie Har, that terrorism and Kashmir are two different problems and cannot be mixed and this was further restated, that the USA considers Kashmir as an internationally recognised dispute and not something as a religious or a terrorist issue. This statement should be seen as an effort to win Pakistani support to the American efforts in seeking a favourable end to the war in Afghanistan. Pakistan understands the importance of Afghanistan to the West and will not leave any effort unturned to seek concessions on core issues of Kashmir as a bargain to further peace in Afghanistan.

They are wary of growing military might of India and thus constantly keep reminding Indians of their vulnerability on the Himalayan border.

The Indians, Chinese and the CAR would not like the return of erstwhile Taliban supported by Pakistani Taliban and Al-Qaida in Afghanistan. This will not only threaten the region but also threaten the world peace at large. Such a disposition in Kabul will eventually challenge the existence of Pakistan itself in its present state; safety of nuclear arsenal from falling in the hands of terrorists will be a real challenge. If it happens so, this will strengthen the Islamic jihadi elements in Xingjiang province of China and Kashmir in India. Leaving Indian fears aside, Pakistan will not hesitate playing upon them to seek international support on Kashmir, which is perceived by them as a core issue.

The Chinese on the other hand are very uncomfortable over the growing Indian influence in South East Asia. They are wary of growing military might of India and thus constantly keep reminding Indians of their vulnerability on the Himalayan border. The incident of DBO in Ladhak, was one such stern reminder to India of its vulnerability and thus the Chinese would like to play the card of unsettled borders with India to discourage her from exerting itself in the region of South China Sea.

The reasons for both the China and Pakistan in heightening up the border tensions with India in the state of Jammu and Kashmir may be totally different but they have a common purpose and that is to weaken India. Pakistan on one hand wants to unite all Jihadi forces in the region and direct them against India, especially in Kashmir post American withdrawal. It also wants to bargain peace in Afghanistan by seeking western concessions on Kashmir. The China wants to maintain pressure on the Himalayan borders to discourage India from any role in South East Asia which may be detrimental to the Chinese interest.

To my understanding India should raise the cost for both these nations to such levels that may eventually be unacceptable for them.

The Americans may not be on the same page with the Indians on issues in the Middle East but they realise the important role, India has in future, in containing China in Asia Pacific region. It is for the very same reason that India is seen as their long term strategic partner by the US. They have a tough task of keeping the Pakistanis on to their right side without antagonising the Indians.

Therefore some legitimate questions arise from this debate. How should India prepare for post 2014 scenario and how it should respond to the heightened tensions on the LOC and the LAC in J&K? There has been a raging debate over these incidents in the political circles, intellectuals, media and public at large. Everyone agrees to the fact that India should be firm in dealing with such incidents, but the question remains how.

To my understanding India should raise the cost for both these nations to such levels that may eventually be unacceptable for them. In case of Pakistan any act of violence by their so called non state actors in India, like the one on our parliament and then Mumbai, should be responded by the Indian army on the LOC by carry out nibbling actions, by capturing Pakistani posts or some areas liberating them from Pakistani occupation. We should keep aside all the UN resolutions and Shimla agreement and instead keep the national interest in the forefront. Such actions may internationalise the issue but definitely not risk a nuclear confrontation, so we should unnecessarily not get worried. Pakistan for once will be forced to think twice before exercising its non-state actors in fermenting trouble in India. Same template should be applied to the hostile actions of Pak army on the LOC. If such was our response, a few things are very clear, firstly the Americans may appear sympathising with Pakistan but then they will not do anything to undermine the larger Indian interest, secondly Pakistan does not have ability to recapture the areas liberated from POK in response to Pak terror, thirdly the Chinese will not come all out to protect its all-weather friend since the stakes would be very high. What India stands to lose is the Nehruvian style of moral grand standing that it does at its own peril. Israeli example may not be all that out of context as to how that country has brought the whole region to terms with its existence.

On the Chinese front, India needs to constantly remind them of the reach of Indian Navy and its ability to influence things in South China Sea. We should go all out to befriend the USA and ASEAN countries and not hesitate aligning more openly against China. We have no other option but to enhance our military capabilities in the Himalayan region and any violation of the LAC should be reciprocated in a similar manner.

These actions are essential for India as an emerging regional super power if we wish to hold some credibility the region. India should make all out efforts to keep its smaller neighbours to its side. We need to have in place strong fundamentals for our economy to grow rapidly and develop military capabilities to tackle all types of contingencies. We also require a redrafting of our foreign policy in conjunction with our strategic ambitions and national goals or else India will continue to be bullied easily by all and sundry.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Danvir Singh

Associate Editor, Indian Defence Review, former Commanding Officer, 9 Sikh LI and author of  book "Kashmir's Death Trap: Tales of Perfidy and Valour".

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6 thoughts on “Kashmir Under Spotlight and Our Response

  1. Superb article Sir, but all the efforts need political backup, which in this country is something “Immoral”! Sorry Sir, but your Brilliant plan, in a Leaderless country, will only be read, not implemented.

  2. If things were as simple and CLEARCUT as danvir has put it, I am pretty sure that some of our strategists in places that matter would have certainly thought of the approach that has been advocated. And there are a many of us who do think so and are generally of the rightist ideology. But then thankfully they are not in the decision making process. When we undertake scenario building for pakistan we shudder at the thought of a failed state at our doorstep. The ramifications are way worse than what we are facing today. And a failed state with absolute anarchy is what pakistan hastens to become at the nibbling actions advocated by the writer. Because this is exactly what the extreme minded people in pakistan our looking for; opportunities which will provide impetus to military/ jehadi actions against india and concurrently belittle their democracy which is just about surviving. We might look diplomatically weak but sometimes, infact many a times with pakistan, it is wise and strengthening to be patient. There are a number of other ways to befittingly reply to pakistan to ensure that they understand we mean business; but all of them lie in the realms of soft power. And these are what we should exercise which we are not doing. But outright military action is certainly playing into the hands of the so called india baiters ! Period !

    • Hi this is very good article which cleraly explains the real intention and the face of Anna Team members. But i have one request do not use that word hindu bayangaravathigal. Many of Vinavu article trying to show Hindu religion as terrorist that means you are directly supporting other end. Have you ever used Muslim terrorist word, never i think.. why? If you use, they will kill you. Hindus will not do that, and they are little soft compare to other end. Do not provacte the general people who beleive hinduism. Good or bad we need one identity, fortunately or unfortunately we born in hindu religion so it is their in our blood, if you criticize more we also has to review your intention. Do you have dare to comment about Muslim? If you have find out some bad news which muslim did in these country. Then we will appreciate your effort. Yes really Vinavu concerned about all people not only to particular sector.

  3. If things were as simple and CLEARCUT as danvir has put it, I am pretty sure that some of our strategists in places that matter would have certainly thought of the approach that has been advocated. And there are a many of us who do think so and are generally of the rightist ideology. But then thankfully they are not in the decision making process. When we undertake scenario building for pakistan we shudder at the thought of a failed state at our doorstep. The ramifications are way worse than what we are facing today. And a failed state with absolute anarchy is what pakistan hastens to become at the nibbling actions advocated by the writer. Because this is exactly what the extreme minded people in pakistan our looking for; opportunities which will provide impetus to military/ jehadi actions against india and concurrently belittle their democracy which is just about surviving. We might look diplomatically weak but sometimes, infact many a times with pakistan, it is wise and strengthening to be patient. There are a number of other ways to befittingly reply to pakistan to ensure that they understand we mean business; but all of them lie in the realms of soft power. And these are what we should exercise which we are not doing. But outright military action is certainly playing into the hands of the so called india baiters!

  4. There is a need to revisit military leadership void that exist in our country. Weak nation with weak militarily is a recipe for disaster. Indian Army with its claimed professional standards and battle readiness has no excuse to the recent reverses both on th LoC and LAC. There is definite lack of tactical and operational response expected out of Commanders and high time they are made accountable. We need to dwell on our selection and grooming system for officers, particularly those who don two/three stars. The state of polity and governance has its contribution, but military has no excuse to be in a state of limbo.

  5. The solution given by author for this whole regional imbalance where india is a weak player ……is satisfying in nature…but will our political setup allow IA to capture pak post as a reply to their terrorist activities in our country…… I have my 100% reservation for that both nationally and internationally …..our pro minority mindset even at the cost of national security ……………….internationally we dont want to upset US and continue projecting our self gandhidian…..I personally feel that we should be aggressive in nature and teach pak , a failed n crumbled state , a lesson.
    A very good article written….

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