Geopolitics

India in the Neighbourhood
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Issue Vol 22.1 Jan - Mar 2007 | Date : 19 Aug , 2011

Added to this, India continues to face multiple sources of terrorism – from the Pakistan-led Islamic terrorists in Kashmir and now in the rest of the country; Maoist rebels in a huge north-south belt right through India; ethno-nationalist separatists in our north-east with boundaries with Tibet, Myanmar and Bangladesh. There are no easy answers to this. But it is self-evident that India has to pay more attention to strengthening its internal security systems and institutions as there is unlikely to be any appreciable let up in the activities of terrorists.

The year gone by has been difficult in many ways for our neighbours and, therefore, for us despite many positive developments as India gets a higher profile on the world stage and its economy begins to grow. But the year ahead is not going to be easy either.

There is still a question mark on the possibility of elections in Pakistan about their nature and independence. A good deal will depend on how General Musharraf handles the Afghanistan and Taliban issue, how he handles the domestic fallout of this, and what sort of elections are held. If they are without the mainstream politicians we will see a stronger bonding of the mullahs and military despite what he says on TV interviews to gullible audiences, and whether he goes beyond platitudes on Kashmir and actually gives India satisfaction by winding down the terror establishment. This remains doubtful. This will determine whether Musharraf is an enlightened moderate or merely moderately enlightened in the grip of those who believe in permanent hostility with India. Away from the Kashmir issue, 2007 may well be a violent year with the areas west of the Indus showing signs of ethnic and religious turbulence. Political parties, disappointed at their exclusion could add to this.

 Some doubts have begun to arise whether or not free and fair elections will be held in Bangladesh in January and what would be the result.

Bangladesh is the big worry of 2007. The country has been through considerable violence in the run up to the election in January with the two ladies deeply suspicious and distrustful of each other. Some doubts have begun to arise whether or not free and fair elections will be held in Bangladesh in January and what would be the result. And if held will these be the last elections, will the Army step in and will Bangladesh turn increasingly radical, pro-Pak and inimical to India with repercussions in our northeast and east. Bangladesh, surrounded on three sides by India and crucial to India’s economic development, has the choice either to become the birthplace for the next Islamic revolution or a modern economic state. Closer ties with India would generate employment and trade within its own boundaries. In that sense India needs to become an important stakeholder in Bangladesh’s economic prosperity. There is just too much politics in Bangladesh’s economic decisions.

The same principle applies to Nepal. Both these countries suffer from the small country syndrome and there is very little India can do except to reassure them that India has enough of its own problems and would not want to seek to add to them by being a hegemonic power. Nepal struggles to get to terms with the new power equation. The relevance of the King, the status of the mainstream political parties importance of the Maoists in the politics and future of Nepal will possibly be finally determined in 2007 when the Constituent Assembly meets to decide the country’s future. The fear is that if the Maoists assess that their influence is waning and that their “constitutional revolution” is not giving them what they want, then the present peace may not last long.

Sri Lanka has a majority problem in as much as the majority Sinhala is unable to give the minority Tamils their place in the sun while India has a Tamil problem in as much as Tamil Nadu politics prevents India from playing a more active role in helping solve the island’s problems. Sri Lanka has to sort out the Tamil question and India must begin to play a bigger role here before we get swamped out of reckoning.

Afghanistan faces a bleak future. The Taliban are resurgent and NATO forces are unequal to the task. There are growing number of suicide attacks, there is increasing palpable hostility towards the West, chiefly the US and there are larger numbers of Pushtoon fence sitters waiting for the end game. Next year will be another bumper year for opium production – therefore heroin. Opium trade may account for 50% of the country’s economy but there are much larger global interests that keep this trade continuing. There is a huge and lucrative underworld economy of narcotics traffickers, arms smugglers, human traffickers and money launderers and the suppliers of the drug on the streets of Europe and the US, who thrive in lawlessness and insecurity who want this trade to thrive. Pakistan may well be asked to take the country on sublease once NATO and the US find continuance to be an unacceptable cost. One could easily see an Afghanistan Study Group next year.

No dramatic changes in India-China can be expected in 2007. China will doubtless watch India’s growing relations with the US and will seek to strengthen its position in the SCO and in Southeast and E Asia. India will be seen as a competitor but not admitted to be anywhere near a peer competitor although there will be competition in Eurasia for resources and markets elsewhere. At the same time, while the border remains unresolved, bilateral trade will soar although as far as India is concerned it needs to correct the content of its exports. Thus, while there will be border tranquility, both friendship and competition will shift into higher gear.

There are no easy solutions. Restoration of responsive and responsible governments, economic development and so on are often the recommendations but what we also need in the region are institutionalised arrangements for problem/conflict resolutions. This is particularly relevant in a nuclear neighbourhood. But so long as some feel that democracies do not get rewarded and dictatorships do not get punished, there is little chance of this happening. Perhaps an enlightened self-confident leadership in these countries would lead to a realisation that the future of the South Asian subcontinent is inextricably interlinked.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Vikram Sood

Former Chief of R&AW.

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