Geopolitics

India in the Neighbourhood
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Issue Vol 22.1 Jan - Mar 2007 | Date : 19 Aug , 2011

The Pak Army is the strongest political party in Pakistan and in our region anti-incumbency is a strong factor. This is bound to happen in Pakistan one day and that would affect the entire country where the political systems have been cramped for so long.

There is also an impression that a successful resolution of the Kashmir issue is necessary for India to be able to play a global role. This is one fallacy. We have the example of China, whose current disputes with Japan and India and with other neighbours earlier, have not prevented it from attaining its present position. In fact US-China political relations are not the best and can sour from time to time. The converse is equally true-good economic relations can submerge political differences some of the time but not in perpetuity.

The continuation of the jehad in Kashmir and other indiscretions with the Taliban despite all promises have for some time now been showing clear signs of a blow back in Pakistan.

The other fallacy is that we hope that a solution will be given to us by Pakistan. We have to find it in Kashmir. One has only to read the latest Baroness Nicholson report to the European Parliament to understand how the West now considers Pakistan’s role in POK to be tenuous and intimidating. Similarly, the latest Human Rights Watch report of September 2006 is a severe indictment of the Pakistani establishment in POK.

There is a very real fear in the Pakistani ruling establishment that a secular and successful India on its borders would undermine both Islamic Pakistan and the two-nation theory. This in turn would undermine the primacy of the Army. Pakistan’s equality is illusory and largely contrived with assistance from outside. This has led to years of adventurism and the feeling that Kashmir would be available to Pakistan. A ruling class that seems reluctant to assist its present benefactor to the extent it can or should, is hardly likely to do so for arch-enemy India unless it knows that the country has a price to pay.

The Pak Army is the strongest political party in Pakistan and in our region anti-incumbency is a strong factor. This is bound to happen in Pakistan one day and that would affect the entire country where the political systems have been cramped for so long. The assassination attempts, suicide attacks and events in Balochistan and Waziristan, Bajaur are not a happy signal for the Pak Armed Forces. The anti-incumbency factor as we call it here can afflict the Pakistan Army as well.

An India closer to the US and China with a Pakistan closer to Russia and even Israel is a possibility. But an India that pulls away from Russia in its new found friendship with the US can only be described as pursuing short term and shortsighted strategic policies.

As the Indian economy picks up momentum, there will inevitably be inequalities in India’s various regions but there will also be opportunities for all of India’s regions and neighbours. A booming national economy with its 300 million middleclass will only lead to greater integration of regions including Kashmir, draw the average Kashmiri into the Indian mainstream and lessen the appeal or fear of radical Islamic terrorists wishing to Talibanise Kashmir.

Pakistan must understand or get the message that Kashmir and India may seem caught up in an unhappy marriage today but a marriage it is and it is not going to be annulled. This understanding and then acceptance is long way away in Pakistan.

In a globalised world, interaction between economies and countries will necessarily change. An India closer to the US and China with a Pakistan closer to Russia and even Israel is a possibility. But an India that pulls away from Russia in its new found friendship with the US can only be described as pursuing short term and shortsighted strategic policies.

So far the tendency has been, especially in Pakistan, to oppose India at every forum and for China to exclude India from the corridors of international power. The edges would hopefully get diffused and there would be greater mutual confidence of learning the value of living with each other, rather like France and Germany.

Another question asked quite often is how would the smaller South Asian States react to an economically successful India. Undoubtedly there will be disequilibria and inequalities. Bu these will be there within India and the next few years will be crucial as India must stay the course. There will be for instance demographic pressures on India both internally as populations move to the cities for employment and those from neighbouring countries move to India also for new opportunities. This will lead to greater integration but is bound to create local tensions as well. It is going to be a question of managing these and other contradictions emanating from rising expectations. Sri Lanka and Bhutan have seen the opportunity in this but Pakistan and Bangladesh have not.

The Failed States Index for 2006 prepared by the Washington-based Fund for Peace, lists Pakistan (9), Afghanistan (10), Myanmar (18), Bangladesh (19), Nepal (20) and Sri Lanka (25) as the most dysfunctional states in the world ““ six of our neighbours rank in the top 25.

The Failed States Index for 2006 prepared by the Washington-based Fund for Peace, lists Pakistan (9), Afghanistan (10), Myanmar (18), Bangladesh (19), Nepal (20) and Sri Lanka (25) as the most dysfunctional states in the world – six of our neighbours rank in the top 25. It will be agreed that this is not a comforting scenario. Refugee flows, rising demographic pressures, factionalised elites, a legacy of groups seeking vengeance, deteriorating public services, a security apparatus that operates like a state within a state, and criminalisation or delegitimisation of the state are some of the symptoms. A dysfunctional state has considerably reduced ability to provide basic security and good governance to its people and has lost control over the use of force within its boundaries. It is not that these countries will eventually collapse and will do so in the order that has been listed. The choice whether or not to continue to slide down the scale and become totally dysfunctional is also the individual choice of the states.

We have seen how the influx of Bangla immigrants to the extent that they may be about 15-20 million in the north east and spreading to the rest of India have caused considerable socio-economic tensions and have also changed the ethnic component of several districts. India also does not have the capacity to bolster the sagging systems in all these countries for all times. The possibility of a failed state in the neighbourhood is a nightmare for India. India cannot afford to have an influx of refugees or the induction of jehadi warriors from across its borders.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Vikram Sood

Former Chief of R&AW.

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