Today Iran is the most powerful state in the Gulf and despite massive US military presence in region it is Iran that really calls the shots in Iraq and the US is only second in the power structure. Even Hamas and Hezbollah, Syria, the Lebanon and the Palestinians are more beholden to Iran that to any one else. A withdrawal from Iraq by the US – it is only a question of how and when – will leave the Arab and Muslim world ‘victorious’ against the infidel for the second time in less than two decades. It would be treated as a victory of the faith by radical elements threatening not only apostate regimes in their own regions but be ready to take on others. This would include India.
Continued US and NATO involvement is an unfortunate necessity but the present system only encourages a belief among the radical Islamic elements that the West does not have the stomach for a long haul and that they are beatable.
Afghanistan remains a difficult case for India because of lack of direct access. Grafting democracy in an essentially tribal and strongly ethnic hierarchical society was never going to be easy. Economically, Afghanistan like all other countries would seek to benefit from access to Indian resources and expertise but this is unlikely to happen so long as Pakistan considers Afghanistan its private preserve and prevents a strong independent government from emerging in Kabul. Afghanistan may thus remain unaffected by India’s economic gains that other countries in the region will derive – apart from the monetary assistance that India may be able to render from time to time. As of now it seems to show little promise of recovering from the mess it is in.
Continued US and NATO involvement is an unfortunate necessity but the present system only encourages a belief among the radical Islamic elements that the West does not have the stomach for a long haul and that they are beatable. Deployment will have to be on a larger scale because the existing troop deployment will not secure victories against a resurgent Taliban force that threatens to continue their campaign even in the winter. Obviously they are well endowed. Yet either way it will be a victory for the jehadists – staying on means more anti-American anger in the country and leaving now means giving the jehadists another victory in the region. This is probably Pakistan’s calculation.
China‘s ambition extends beyond Asia and increasingly sees itself as the only challenge to the US. It would therefore want the US recede from Asia as the first step. As a corollary to this it would not allow India to become its peer competitor. However, India-China relations remain on the upswing with the year ending with a visit by President Hu Jintao in December. Although there were no surprises, none were really expected. The surprise was that there was no surprise in Pakistan and the much talked of China Pak nuclear energy deal did not materialise – at least not overtly. This needs to be watched considering that Hu went to Pakistan at a time when anti-US sentiments were at their highest in recent years, he has, wisely chosen to watch how the India-US deal plays out before committing to civil nuclear energy for Pakistan.
China”˜s ambition extends beyond Asia and increasingly sees itself as the only challenge to the US. It would therefore want the US recede from Asia as the first step.
The next issue is how might India-Pakistan relations evolve in the context of continuing Indian economic and political success. This largely will depend on how much maturity, farsightedness and realism, Pakistan’s leaders show in the years ahead. The other important question is how might Pakistan itself evolve in the years ahead. So long as its rulers keep the mainstream democratic forces stifled and lean heavily on the mullah nexus for their own survival, Pakistan will inevitably slip towards Talibanisation. In its relations with India:
The first reality is that the Pakistani establishment must understand that only sovereignty is equal, not power. Unfortunately for the subcontinents history, off-shore balancing and force equalisers over the years have given Pakistani leadership the impression that it can attain parity with India.
The second reality is that unofficial trade between India and Pakistan is at least twice as much as the official trade. So if it shows maturity and farsightedness, it would seek closer economic ties with India in trade and even manufacturing. This would give Pakistan access to the vast Indian markets that the Chinese want to grab as well as access to cheaper India goods instead of having to import them from else where.
Also read: Radicalization of Pakistan will increase threat of India
It must think of MFN, transit rights and trade with India. Its refusal to grant this will not slow down India’s growth but Pakistan will have missed an opportunity. The mullah-military tie up that stifles democracy and has over the years inculcated a jehadi mindset and its single-point agenda is likely to remain a stumbling block. It is their choice. India has begun to look east – to Southeast Asia and Japan.
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