Geopolitics

Increasing Sectarian Divide in Middle East does not Portend well for Future
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 28 Dec , 2015

Let there be no doubt that rise of the terror organisation ISIS in middle east, its current control of a large swath of Iraqi and Syrian territory, more than the size of United kingdom and its leader Abu Baghdadi declaring this area as a Caliphate with him as Caliph has all happened because of the fight for supremacy in this area between the Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia with Western countries led by America meddling in.

It was Saudi Arabia and its allies who were initially  helping ISIS, a Sunni jehadi organisation with arms and money, hoping that it will destabilise Shia Iraq and Syria till they realised that ISIS will not spare them either.

However now ISIS has become a major menace for them also, so they are ganging up to collectively deal with it, but again without Shia Iran and its allies. Needless to say this sectarian divide will be exploited by Abu Baghdadi.

It was Saudi Arabia and its allies who were initially  helping ISIS, a Sunni jehadi organisation with arms and money, hoping that it will destabilise Shia Iraq and Syria till they realised that ISIS will not spare them either. America included, all these Sunni Countries under the Saudi umbrella were hell bent to throw out the Assad regime of Syria .King Assad belongs to Hashemite kingdom a minority Shia sect while bulk of Syrian population is Sunni. Here also they played the game of good jehadi and bad jehadi. Good jehadi were those who were fighting against the Assad regime of Syria .

These good jehadis were supplied with arms and what have you by America and Saudi Arabia. Abu Baghdadi exploited this situation. After getting large share of arms and money and capturing three fourth of Syria with Raqqa as his capital in Syria, as also Mosul the Iraq’s second most important town after Bagdad including the Iraqi and Syrian oil wells he declared this as his caliphate, putting Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Middle East supporters in real dilemma as what they should do? 

Finally they decided to form a coalition of 60 countries under America to destroy ISIS. Since middle of last year America alone has dropped 8000 bombs in the area held by the ISIS in Syria and Iraq but it has not had much effect on the Abu Baghdadis regime.

Pakistan they have included but Pakistan denies inclusion saying that their constitution prohibits Pakistani Army fighting outside the country without UN umbrella.

On 15 December in a very surprising move, Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud, the defence minister of Saudi Arabia who is the son of the king and deputy crown prince announced the formation of 34 Sunni Islamic countries alliance .This Alliance under the leadership of Saudi Arabia will coordinate the fight against terror in Iraq, Syria, Egypt and Afghanistan.

Mr Salman has clarified that focus of this alliance will not be just ISIS but any terror organisation which confronts it. In absence of any declared composition and modalities of functioning of this new coalition against terror it is difficult to predict anything specific nevertheless certain broad modalities could definitely be discerned.

First thing which stands out is that when these countries are already fighting ISIS, though only by aerial bombardment under American coalition why must they have a separate coalition that also only of Sunni countries?

This coalition does not include Shia Iran as also Shia Iraq and Syria. Afghanistan which is 52% Sunni and rest Hazara and Tazik is also not included while they have included distant countries like Malaysia and Bangladesh.

Pakistan they have included but Pakistan denies inclusion saying that their constitution prohibits Pakistani Army fighting outside the country without UN umbrella.

By not including Iraq and Syria in whose territory ISIS is located, how do they intend to fight ISIS? They have included Turkey which borders Iraq and Syria but is having strained relations with both. Recently Iraq has ordered Turkey to vacate its territory where the Turkish troops are located.

American military coordination with Iran has upset Saudi Arabia. It apprehends its influence declining in Middle East if western countries lend their ears to Iran.

In Syria, Turkey has recently shot down a Russian fighter plane which was helping Syria. This has badly strained the relations of Turkey with Russia. All in all it appears that these 34 Sunni countries under Saudi Arabia in the name of fighting terror are basically ganging up against the rising influence of Iran in Middle East, especially after the nuclear deal which Iran has concluded with the US. Now Iran and America are no more sworn enemies.

Iran has sent its forces of imperial guard to fight alongside Iraqi forces. The Iranian limited ground intervention has halted the expansion of the Caliphate. Now Russia also has come in and it is taking on ISIS as also the anti Assad forces.

Iraq has launched a major offensive to retake Ramadi town. If ISIS does not succeed soon in expanding the area under its influence then it will not be able to sustain this war for long and the decline will set in. After the recent Paris jehadi attack by ISIS which resulted in death of 130 people followed by the Lone wolf ISIS motivated attack in California in America which killed 14 Americans , Western countries  are more and more leaning towards Iran whose efforts on the ground against ISIS are slowly but steadily succeeding.

This American military coordination with Iran has upset Saudi Arabia. It apprehends its influence declining in Middle East if western countries lend their ears to Iran. Another factor is America now reducing its oil purchases from Saudi Arabia and Middle East due to its own shale oil production.

Muslim world will have to understand that whether Shia or Sunni a jehadi is a jehadi and the world will be safe form both of them only when they start thinking beyond sectarianism and deal with all kinds of terror with a heavy hand.

America has recently lifted its self imposed ban on its oil export. Also America is now reducing its presence in the Middle East. As a result the tug of war for influence in Middle East between Iran and Iraq has further increased. We should not forget that the ongoing conflict in Yemen and the sectarian battle lines drawn in Iraq and Syria are basically the extension of Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry for influence.

If this sectarian feud continues then it is most unlikely that this 34 Sunni Muslim countries coalition will be able to achieve much against the terror. Each side will try and preserve those terror organisations who are loyal to them and will go against those like ISIS who have dreams of their own.

Muslim world will have to understand that whether Shia or Sunni a jehadi is a jehadi and the world will be safe form both of them only when they start thinking beyond sectarianism and deal with all kinds of terror with a heavy hand. However currently this possibility looks remote.

Only answer is that the UN must take a lead and any terror organisation Shia or Sunni must be dealt with under UN umbrella. Any country which supports terror must be put under economic and other sanctions. Only then world will be a safer place to live in.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Brig Arun Bajpai

Defence and Strategic Analyst

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One thought on “Increasing Sectarian Divide in Middle East does not Portend well for Future

  1. Perhaps we should think of the increasing sectarian divide here at home before think about Middle east.
    What with Beef ban and aggressive Hindutva push to alienate any one who does not think like them — which is pretty much 600 million + indians, there are going to be Sectarian divides here !
    or perhaps that is the plan??? To create another middle east in India??? and taut Hindutva as the solution???
    thereby militarizing the state!!! and continue buying American and Russian weapons(and eat up kickbacks??) … remember Gulf of Tonkin incident?
    War is goooooood for business!

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