Geopolitics

Chinese Ladakh misadventure has left it stuck between the devil and the deep sea
Star Rating Loader Please wait...
Issue Net Edition | Date : 06 Oct , 2020

.

Diplomatic parleys to diffuse the situation between India and China in eastern Ladakh are being carried out with great urgency. Towards this end, the sixth virtual meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) on border affairs was held on October, 01. The thrust was to take forward the “five-point consensus” between foreign ministers of both countries in Moscow on September, 10. The said consensus had called for a dialogue to ensure quick disengagement, maintaining proper distance between troops of the two sides and easing tensions, abiding by all agreements and protocols on border management, continuing dialogue through the Special Representatives mechanism and the WMCC and working on new confidence-building measures once the situation eases. The WMCC culminated with diplomatic niceties being exchanged by both sides and no headway made.

Notwithstanding the firmed in positions from which the two sides are refusing to budge there seems to be an urgency, especially on the part of the Chinese, to ensure that the situation does not escalate in the military front. China is insisting on “implementation of the steps outlined after the last meeting of the senior commanders so as to avoid misunderstandings and to maintain stability along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).” The military commanders, in their last meeting, had agreed to stop troop build-up, exercise restraint to ensure that the situation on ground is not changed and avoid any actions that may complicate the existing posture.

It is quite apparent that India, while grappling with a serious confrontation with China along the LAC, is pursuing a mature policy involving both diplomatic as well as military channels. Indian forces are also showing remarkable restraint in not escalating the matter to an unacceptable level. The international community is keenly monitoring the situation. There is a universal consensus with regard to the righteousness of the Indian posture.

The Chinese motives, sadly, seem to be self-serving and multifaceted. Many believe that the face-off in Eastern Ladakh is a diversion for other more critical problems that the country is facing. Take for example the clash in Galwan in mid-June; it started with the Chinese attacking Indian troops with spiked clubs after an agreement between the military commanders had been reached. The result was many casualties on both sides. The Indian side declared 20 brave soldiers dead, while the Chinese did not declare their losses that were reported by other channels to be much more. The clash turned international attention towards the area of conflict and, in the meantime, China introduced the ’Hong Kong Security Law’ whose application got lost in the melee. Thus, the draconian security law escaped international scrutiny.  Undoubtedly, there are many wheels between wheels so far as the Chinese are concerned.

All, however, is not well with the Chinese game plan too. While attention from some issues is being diverted the multiple fronts that have been opened are becoming a deep concern for the country. Only time will tell whether the Chinese moves emerge as a sound policy or a strategic blunder. The fact is that most of the world is looking at China with a fair degree of trepidation for causing so much turmoil after having spread COVID-19.

It cannot be denied that the Chinese tried and tested strategy of ‘military coercion’ has reaped good results in the past, very much so against India too. So, does war remain an option  for China? It is something that the obdurate, egoistic leadership of the country would wish for considering the weak wicket that it finds itself on presently. A war would divert attention from serious domestic issues of COVID, food insecurity and a nearly shattered economy among others. It would resurrect a spirit of nationalism, make the people forget their anger and look up to the leadership with awe.

However, this time round, China misjudged the resolve of the present Government and the military capability of  India. The Chinese leadership has realised  that India is no longer a push over as it was in 1962. 

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) last fought a war 40 years ago in 1979, against an ill equipped but highly motivated Vietnam and got literally demolished in the bargain. The present day leadership of the Chinese army has not seen a single shot fired in their lifetime. They only know how to commit organised brutality against unarmed Tibetans and Uyghur’s.

PLA lacks confidence and is unprepared for war with any army, least of all the well trained, well equipped, motivated Indian forces. Things were okay so long as the “push and shove” drama was being played out along the LAC, an all out conflict would be too much for the PLA to handle. President Xi Jinping is desperately trying to overcome the shortcomings but it does not seem to be feasible in the short term. China is now stuck between the devil and the deep blue seas.

So far as India is concerned, the message is loud and clear. The Government of India wants Beijing to move its troops back to their original position and restore status quo ante along the LAC. India is not ready to even speak about the 1959 definition of the LAC as China is insisting upon presently.

Indian Army has already moved in additional troops, weapons and equipment to aggressively match up to the Chinese build-up. Besides, the Indian Air Force has been keeping a strict aerial surveillance in the disputed region. India is and will remain well poised to face any threat posed by the Red Army on our Northern Frontier and also a two front war if forced on us. In view of India’s strong resolve, China should realise that escalation of the situation will prove to be counter-productive. Now the question arises – who will blink first?

Rate this Article
Star Rating Loader Please wait...
The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Col Jaibans Singh

is a reputed Geo-strategic analyst, columnist and author of Jammu and Kashmir: The Tide Turns.

More by the same author

Post your Comment

2000characters left

11 thoughts on “Chinese Ladakh misadventure has left it stuck between the devil and the deep sea

  1. Your article boost the morale of Indians that our army is so well prepared .. but one must not take China lightly .. they are cunning wolf .. Pakistan is already playing in the hands of China & China is trying to make inroads in the neighbouring countries to jeopardize the peace of India in all fronts. Only option for India is to become self reliant ( Atmanirbhar) to counter all the forces against India. Awareness campaign ,at all fronts, of making India Atmanirbhar should be done aggressively . At the same time we should make strategic move to corner China in all fronts.Jai Hind!!!

  2. This is NOT THE PROPER TIME FOR US TO EVALUATE WHETHER CHAINA IS BETWEEN THE DEVIL & THE SEA OR NOT.

    The UNEXPECTED ERUPTION OF ” CORONAVIRUS ” IS CAUSING VERIETIES OF ECONOMICAL CRUNCHES IN THE HOME FRONT .

    ADDING FUEL TO THE FIRE , BUT ! THE ” INESCAPABLE DEFENCE EXPENCE NOW OCCURING ” WE ARE FORCED TO MAKE , IS BECOMING A VERY GRAT BURDEN ON OUR EXCHEQUER , WITHOUT ANY CHOICE TO ANY ALTERNATIVE .

    At THIS CRUSCIAL JUNCTURE ” WE SHOULD NEVER DEPEND UPON OTHER’ S SUPPORT ” THAN TO STAND ON OUR OWN SELF EFFORTS ( NOT OR NEVER ON OVER CONFIDENCE ) TO SAFEGUARD THE SECURITY AND SAFETY OF OUR MOTHER LAND ” , BY MAINTAINING HORMONIOUS RELASTIONSHIP WITH EVERY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD..

    It is NOW OUR DUTY TO STAND UNITEDLY TO DISCHARGE OUR PART OF RESPONSIBLE DUTIES VERY METICULOUSLY AND CORRECTLY ALWAYS TO SAFEGAURD OUR MOTHER LAND . It is THEN AND ONLY THEN WE MAKE OUR MOTHER LAND A VERY GREAT COUNTRY IN THE WORLD .

    PLEASE, , JOIN HANDS WITHOUT ANY DISCRINATIONS TO SAVE OUR OWN SECURED FUTURE FOR EVER.

    With Best Wishes For Bettermnet Always ,

    Yours sincerely ,
    SHIVA KUMAR.T.N. B.Sc.L.L.B.A.M.I.B.M.
    DIRECTOR ,
    YOGAVASISTHA. SAMSODHANA KENDRA ,
    No 13 , 5th CROSS , NR COLONY ,
    BANGALORE – 560019 .
    Mobile/WhatsApp : +919483271683

  3. Chinese still think Nehru-Gandhi family still has influence on the country, but unable to understand that the dynasty has long been rejected and set aside. China is between devil and sea. It has lost economically and also psychologically. India has played very strategically both at land and sea with strong support from quad. Now china can practice to suck thump

  4. Xi Jinping thought that india is still being ruled by MMS, where his army could call the shots and getaway. PM Modiji is not a robot nor remote controlled PM. He means business. Xi Jinping must know that his country is more of an invader than a civilised nation. He must quit Tibet, which was overrun by the chinese army and illegally occupied since 1950. Aksai chin, Galwan valley are all all Indian territories and not jinping’s father’s property to be taken over just like that. If he does so, then the destruction of chinese cities, liberation of Tibet will be the goal for the Indian armed forces.

  5. Our past government’s pussilaminous attitude towards Chinese aggression had emboldened this rogue CCP to continue with their “two step forward and a step backward game”. Agree that economically and materially they are much better then us but in case of war there will be no winner. Damage will be huge on both sides and China will not be the same again. Rather no country will ever support China to the levels they did earlier and their recovery will be slow and difficult in comparison with Indian economy.

  6. First of all we need to know about the mindset of our advisory then we could plan our moobs. Chinese are here to bleed Indian economy by deploying their troops for long periods of time. Secondly they are trying to protect the CPEC project, they even forcing Pakistan to make Gilgit-Baltistan it’s fifth Province. Thirdly, thay are trying to teach India a lesson so that India cannot be at per with China and India moral can be destroyed.

  7. Time for the Indian Army to move forward into Aksai Chin & Tibet. Now or never. It’s high time the Chinese are taught in their own tricks of salami slicing. The Chinese have no religion & hence no conscience, & Xi needs to be ousted. Am sure Tibetans and Chinese citizens as well as PLA troops wud even join in our liberating their country of communist tyranny.

  8. Its bitter reality that India faced a war in 1962 with china. This time we are not going to face but going to fight. Let’s take a resolve if china does a blunder then pledgd to disintegrate it . There are many factors ,we being a democracy are ranked 77th on corruption index with china. China punished 1.5 million people in this decade for corrupt activities . While in India people are govern by their own will .
    Also we can’t do the blunder of misjudging china’s expansionist approach. Xi jinping is comparing himself with Genghis Khan and Kublai khan when there use to exist unorganized armies in the world and thinking of expanding his borders across Asia in the same manner. It has done it with smaller countries by use of its muscle power.
    For a better Asia a Strong India is must .How we face China?This is going to boost other nations .
    CHINA is adopting a policy of giving huge loans to smaller countries so that they are under its influence. it has happened for Sri Lanka ,Maldives and Pakistan . India need to plan for these countries in Asia and Africa.
    MORE important is equipment of Indian forces with latest weapons and technology. Fifth and 6th generation fighter are must at the earliest. I am surprised why we are not considering f- 35 when countries like Japan are using it and is the best fighter plane in the world.? May be flying cost a factor and challenges of handling a variety of aircraft in air force Inventory . BUT for the sake of country we have to face every challenge.

    • WHAT NO ONE , NOT ECEN DEFENCE EXPERTS,ARE,MENTIONING IS THAT – CHINA HAS A,GINGANRIC , ALMOST INFINITE EDGE OVER INDIA IN ” MISSILE, POWER ” …. SOME DEFENCE EXPERTS,HAVE SAID IN PAST THAT
      THEY HAFE,EVEN MORE MISSILES THAN USA,. . AND IT’S, THEIR MISSILE POWER,THAT,WILL MAKE,CHINA,DEFEAT INDIA . NOT FIGHTERS OR SOLDIERS OR, ANY OTHER WEAPON SYSTEM – EVEN S – 400 .
      SO INDIA,SHOULD CONCENTRATE ON GETTING,AS MANY MUSSILES – GROUND TO GROUND , GROUND TO,AIR AND AIR TO AIR,AND GROUND, AS AS SION AS POSSIBLE . 3 YEARS, BAXK THERE WERE REPORTS IN MEDIA,THAT CHINA WAS PREPARING IT’S SOLDIERS WITH BULLET PROOF JACKETS , WINTER CLOTHING , RATION AND MISSILE BASES AND AIR STRIPS , AMMUNITION DEPOTS , FUEL SUPPLY ETC FOR WAR,AGAINST INDIA. BUT INDIA DIDN’T TAJE IT SERIOSLY . BY NOW INDIA SHOULD HAVE GOT 20/ 30 BILLION DOLLATS OF MISSILES AND MISSIKE SYSTEMS OF ALL TYPES AND – BARACK LIKE SYSTEMS FROM ISRAEL OR OTHER,COUNTRIES IF S – 400 COULDN’T BE ARRANGED. BUT INDIA DIDNT TAKE CHINES THREAT ESPECIALLY THEIR HUGE ADVANTAGE OVER INDIA IN MISSILES . AND IF CHINA WINS IT WILL BE BECAUSE OF GREAT ADVANTAGE OVER INDIA IN MISSILES . .. INDUA SHOULD PROCURE MISSULE SYSTEMS OF ALL KIND AT TOP PRIORITY AND MINIMUM 20/ 30 BILLION DOLLARS IF IT DOESN’T WANT TO LOOSE – ARUNACHAL PRADESH , SIKKIM AND LADDAKH AND MAYBE EVEN MORE..

      • Yes. Missiles are more destructive and economical than fighter jets. China has lots of missiles in its arsenal, no doubt but its efficacy as well as its performance in a battle scenario has not been established. Indian potential should never be underestimated at any cost. Even in the worst case possibilities , if India faces severe beating, I am confident that India’s retaliation will be no less than destruction of chinese assets and cities, which will cripple its economy on one front, while the rest of the world will shun china, that itself will leave it shattered, while India will be helped by majority of the world’s countries to rebuild its economy.

More Comments Loader Loading Comments