Geopolitics

ASEAN’s Answer to the Coup d’état in Thailand
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 22 Nov , 2014

The Thai national security situation has been shaky at best in the aftermath of a series of political problems in the last couple of years. A sustained period of political turmoil has destabilized the country’s political scene, and will continue to play a significant role in its near future. It is now up to us to assess ASEAN’s response to the increased political volatility within the Kingdom of Thailand, one of our member states. The nation of Thailand undoubtedly is an important member of our organization, and as such its political fate is a matter of concern to ASEAN as a whole, as well as to each of its members.

The nation of Thailand undoubtedly is an important member of our organization, and as such its political fate is a matter of concern to ASEAN as a whole…

History to the Problem

The Thai military has a long- standing tradition of intervening in domestic politics. The most recent one before the recent turmoil took place was in 1991, when the military staged its 17th coup d’état since 1932. It also installed a civilian Prime minister – Anand Panyarachun – in order to legitimize its grip on power. It is therefore hardly surprising to see that the Thai military intervenes in politics when it is deemed necessary by the military leadership.

The current political turmoil can be traced back to the economic crisis hitting Asia, and Southeast Asia in particular, in 1997. Thailand was severely hit, and its emerging export boom took a severe blow during this time. Civilians were asked to hand in jewellery in order to create a bigger gold reserve for Thailand. Immigrant workers from neighbouring countries were also sent home in a bid to combat the rising unemployment within Thailand, thus suppressing lingering hopes for a common ASEAN space for workers. Such a free movement of workers zone within ASEAN – based on the example set by the European Union – is therefore unlikely to emerge in the near future, in particular because of precedents like this one in Thailand.

As an immediate result of the economic woes of the Asian economic crisis – which did predominantly affect the countryside – the Thai Love Thai (Thai Rak Thai) party won the partially re-run elections of 2001. Its leader – Thaksin Shinawatra – formed a coalition government promising to improve the economic fate of the country, in particular by favouring rural development.

His first government did admittedly book some successes, e.g. by negotiating the re-opening of a border crossing with Myanmar which had been closed in the wake of several border clashes. However, the border with Myanmar was closed again in 2002, and martial law was declared in the Muslim- majority southern provinces of Thailand in 2004, following a wave of attacks by Islamic militants. The 2004 tsunami also did add to the economic woes of the country.

The Supreme Court also sentenced exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to two years in jail for corruption over a land deal.

All of this didn’t impede Thaksin Shinawatra from winning a landslide second term in 2005, thus enabling him to pursue his crackdown on Islamic militants in the south. Islamist militants on the border with Malaysia had been pushing for more autonomy for a long time: Thailand being a predominantly Buddhist country, it seemed at first rather unhelpful towards the rights and cultural identity of its Malaysian minority in the south of the country.

Domestic unrest and increased political pressure from the opposition led Shinawatra to call for a snap election in 2006 in order to delegitimize his policies: the ensuing political boycott by the opposition led to the annulment of these elections, and made him lose a lot of credibility. The Prime minister did take a break from politics, and feared that the military would be conspiring to oust him.

These fears became true in 2006, when the military staged a bloodless coup while Thaksin Shinawatra was at the United Nations General Assembly. Martial law was put in place, and retired General Surayud Chulanont was appointed as interim Prime minister. A new constitution was drafted and implemented in 2007, coinciding with the lifting of martial law in most of the country and with the banning of Thaksin Shinawatra’s Thai Love Tha (Thai Rak Thai) party. Voters did back the new military-drafted constitution by referendum in 2007.

The ensuing elections at the end of 2007 did however produce an unexpected result: the People Power Party (PPP), perceived as the reincarnation of Shinawatra’s Thai Love Thai (Thai Rak Thai) party, won the most votes and formed a government under new Prime minister Samak Sundaravej. Thaksin Shinawatra himself returned from exile, until his wife was found guilty of fraud; he went into exile again in 2008.

Overall, the current conflict is an accumulation of both party politics and economic disparity between the countryside and the big cities.

The end of 2008 was marked by an opposition occupation of Bangkok’s main government complex, as the Constitutional Court dismissed Prime Minister Sundaravej for violating a conflict of interest law. Parliament chose Somchai Wongsawat as the new Prime minister, but street protest continued, culminating in the opposition People’s Alliance for Democracy’s blockade of parliament and of Thailand’s main airports. The Supreme Court also sentenced exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to two years in jail for corruption over a land deal.

Somchai Wongsawat was also forced from office by the Constitutional Court, which disbanded the People Power Party for electoral fraud, while also imposing a five years ban from politics on its leaders. A new coalition was formed by new Prime minister, opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva. The PPP was at that time staging mass protests, including one in 2009 leading to the cancellation of an ASEAN summit in Pattaya. In 2010 the Supreme Court issued a new ruling stripping Shinawatra’s family of half of its wealth, estimating that he illegally acquired $1.4bn during his time as Prime minister. PPP protesters dressed in red were on the streets again, occupying parts of central Bangkok for several months.

In July 2011 new elections were held once more, in which Abhisit Vejjajiva’s coalition lost. A new party, the Pheu Thai party, won a landslide victory in elections, leading to Yingluck Shinawatra – Thaksin Shinawatra’s sister to become Thailand’s first female Prime minister. Living up to its electoral promises, the new administration introduced a rice subsidy scheme, ensuring that farmers – a significant part of Pheu Thai’s mainly rural electorate – received a guaranteed price. The ensuing costs burdened the budget, and led to the downfall of Thailand as the world’s largest rice exporter.

The opposition – dressed in yellow – now continued to blockade parliament, fearing that a political amnesty bill would mark the return of Thaksin Shinawatra. Its rallies were also dispersed by the police; however, this couldn’t prevent them from rallying behind the new Protect Thailand (Pitak Siam) party, led by retired General Boonlert Kaewprasit. Their protests in 2012 were further ignited by the charging of former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva with responsibility for the death of a taxi driver during anti-government protests in 2010.

The political scene in Thailand has become increasingly tense and open to violence as a means to win elections, which is a rather worrying observation to be made.

The turmoil certainly didn’t subside in 2013, when the Constitutional Court prohibited the Pheu Thai party from amending the military-drafted 2007 constitution. A cutback on the rice subsidy program also back lashed, leading to several cabinet reshuffles and an increasingly shaky grip on power of Prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra. New elections were promised for early 2014, but were subsequently declared invalid by the Constitutional Court because of disruption by the opposition. The Constitutional Court eventually ordered Prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra and several ministers out of office over alleged irregularities in appointment of security adviser. The army then seized power, and installed coup leader General Prayuth Chan-o-cha as the new Prime minister and leader of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO).

Overall, the current conflict is an accumulation of both party politics and economic disparity between the countryside and the big cities. Thai society hasn’t uniformly benefitted of the economic growth, and a more even distribution of wealth is still lacking. As such, the conflict is at present rather complex and multi-layered; a comprehensive regional solution with ASEAN is therefore preferable and most certainly needed.

Current Political Situation

Despite the relative small amount of bloodshed during the coup d’état, the country is most certainly not at peace at this very moment. The party of former Prime Minister Shinawatra still exists, and its supporters are more determined than ever to support him and his sister, the other ousted Prime minister. The current night curfew in Bangkok also doesn’t help to decrease political and economic tensions within Thai society.

At the current stage the new leadership is recognized by most ASEAN governments, as well as by a broad coalition of countries around the world.

Thai society as a whole is rather aggressive, though mainly in a channelled way, including organized outbursts of violence in boxing and other sports. Despite this negative social attitude to political violence, it remains rather unlikely that the current political unrest will help to dissuade protesters of either side to refrain from using violent means to achieve their goals. The political scene in Thailand has become increasingly tense and open to violence as a means to win elections, which is a rather worrying observation to be made.

Thailand’s main sources of revenue consist mainly of rice export and tourism, both of which have been severely harmed by the recent political turmoil. It remains to be seen whether a solution can be found at the political level resulting in an economic improvement of the problems in these sectors. In either way, Thailand’s image abroad has undeniably been tarnished, and becoming a more stable, democratic country once again seems to be the only way out of the perils of possible economic catastrophe. Deterring tourism and foreign investments by airport and city centre occupations also didn’t help to raise Thailand’s profile abroad.

At the current stage the new leadership is recognized by most ASEAN governments, as well as by a broad coalition of countries around the world. It nevertheless remains unclear to what extent either Thaksin or Yingluck Shinawatra still enjoy political and popular support, both at home and abroad. Furthermore, the practice of ousting a Prime minister during a visit to the United Nations General Assembly seems rather uncommon; international criticism of this particular coup is still shimmering in the background, and might be revived in case the Shinawatra camp has a decent shot at coming back to power, either through the ballot box or through political violence or an outright uprising against the Thai military forces wielding power at this moment.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Anant Mishra

is a security analyst with expertise in counter-insurgency and counter-terror operations. His policy analysis has featured in national and international journals and conferences on security affairs.

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