Indian Defence Review

Cold Start and the Nuclear Deadfall

During the Kargil war, Pakistan had explicitly brandished the nuclear-threat, but the top brass at the Services HQ dismissed this nuclear machismo; they believed Pakistan had to be downright daffy to use nukes and invite annihilation. Kargil was about the recapture of Indian territory furtively occupied by Pakistan. Though significant territorial gains are highly unlikely in a limited war, Cold Start involves capture of Pakistani territory to be used as a bargaining chip (with the destruction of Pakistan’s war-waging potential as the secondary goal).

Given the mind-boggling logistics involved in mobilising the forces, to speed up mobilisation, it is imperative to shift the garrisons and cantonments closer to the border.

Now, this is a combustible issue as no self-respecting nation will swallow territorial loss to its sworn archrival, that too a country dismembered by the selfsame archrival. Even if heavyweight peacemakers are parachuted down in time, Pakistan will perforce have to vacate the territorial seizure. This will lead to an intensified war of attrition, which Pakistan forces will lose ultimately.

Though military theorists have propounded their take on nuclear thresholds, as human beings are unpredictable, lose rationality and panic easily, these models carry little certitude outside seminar halls, certainly not in a battlefield engulfed by the ‘fog of war’ and the fear of defeat. I believe this would be the stage where any laager of Indian armour inside Pakistani territory would invite nuclear attack to stave off the stigma of another trouncing.

Further, to expect Pakistan to play ball in post-conflict resolution is being dim-witted. Therefore, I’m sceptical about our ability to pull off the Cold Start doctrine as it is too risky as you cannot predict/shape its future course, without letting the blaze to blow up into an uncontainable inferno or even nuclear holocaust.

The Better Military Option

Let us assume the Pakistan Army continues to thumb its nose at India’s ‘coercive diplomacy’ and machinates another provocative terrorist attack (Kasab capture ruined its party, hence it will not risk using Pak nationals, prefer Indian operatives). Let us also assume the Union Government grows a spine and pulls its finger out. What is the best military option available?

Like a true fighter pilot, I will argue for employing air power instead of betting on short-swift armoured lunges with an eye to barter/extract an indemnity of peace, milk and honey later. The IAF and the Special Forces can be tasked to target the terror nurseries as well as the hideouts of terror-mentors. The IAF has acquired the capabilities of pinpoint targeting and delivery, precision-guided munitions and standoff weapons to do its devoir.

If our intelligence is hot, the IAF should hit targets accurately. If we manage the media and PR blitz adroitly, my instinct says Pakistan, despite jingoistic public-media pressure, will think ten times before launching a counter, as that will mean all-out war. Despite the Pakistani bluster, this writer thinks Pak will not want to escalate the hostilities. Even if there is a Pakistani retaliation, the reactions are predictable, and therefore the fallout could be contained.

Cold Start Plus

Cold Start is just past its toddlerhood, yet to evolve into an adult. Though I debunked the reliance of territorial capture, there is one scenario in which it should work to at — the Line of Control. Mind you, the troops manning the counter-insurgency grid in the state have sizeable artillery assets to back them. Cold Start should be effective in few sectors along the LoC. Roughly six brigades there can swing into action right away. It should take at least four days for the Pakistan Army to mobilise its forces from the Durand Line to the LoC. This time frame should be adequate for our formations along the International Border (IB) to mobilise and be at full cock.

If our intelligence is hot, the IAF should hit targets accurately.

The lay of the land south of Jammu should make the Shakargarh Bulge another inviting sector. The forces deployed here can strike as well as provide cover to the National Highway 1A (Jalandhar-Srinagar) — our lifeline. This manoeuvre is also meant to take advantage of the Pakistani reluctance to activate the IB.

Keeping the risk of nuclear warfare in mind, the objective of the formations along the IB must be twofold:

“¦ sceptical about our ability to pull off the Cold Start doctrine as it is too risky as you cannot predict/shape its future course, without letting the blaze to blow up”¦

With a chunk of its military machine laid waste, the Pakistan Army’s chutzpah to bleed India through terror outfits should evaporate, and a basket case like Pakistan would find it arduous to rebuild its military capability. With the Pakistan Army on the mat, the post-conflict settlement should benefit India.

Deterrence versus Pre-emptive Action, Revisited

I think a deft blend of deterrence and punitive action (the Americans have screwed up and discredited the pre-emptive doctrine) can worst the ongoing proxy war. Pakistan will buckle under only if India is able to raise the costs of Pakistani malfeasance and make the merchants of jihadi terrorism feel the pain.

Despite India’s remonstrations, Pakistani Government continues to drag its feet and treat the 26/11 mastermind Hafiz Muhammad Saeed like its son-in-law. What if this charade goes on? Maybe the time has come to think of covert operation to bump off mass murderer Hafiz Saeed, even flagitious Maulana Masood Azhar. The Mossad-style do-it-yourself hit job is unnecessary here as there are enough Cosa Nostra-like syndicates who will do it for a price, without leaving the spoor.

Notes

1. A Cold Start for Hot Wars? by Walter C Ladwig III
2. The Nuclear Battlefield — India vs Pakistan (Author not known)
3. Bharat Rakshak website
4. Wikipedia