Indian Defence Review

On 19-20 March 2022 the Houthi movement in Yemen which is Iran aligned, struck the oil facilities of Saudi Arabia in Yanbu, Jizan, Khamis Mushait and Dhahran Al-Janub sending shock waves globally as the world grapples with the increasing oil prices in the aftermath of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War.

Relations between USA and Saudi Arabia are on the wane after Saudi Arabia cold shouldered USA’s appeal to pump in more oil globally to stem the increasing oil prices as the Russian oil has been put under sanctions by USA.

USA has in the recent past has been unhappy with Saudi Arabia over its interference in the civil war of Yemen, poor human rights record and the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi.

Oil was discovered in Saudi Arabia on 03 March 1938 which catapulted it to being the world’s second largest oil producer and the world’s largest oil exporter. It also has the world’s second largest oil reserves and the world’s sixth largest gas reserves.

Saudi Arabia with an area of 21.5 lakh square kilometres and a population of 3.48 crores with its capital at Riyadh spends 8% of its GDP on military which is the second highest in the world after Oman. It is also has been the world’s largest arms importer from 2015 to 2019 and more that 50% of its arms imports have been from USA.

Saudi Arabia launched a 10-nation alliance military intervention in Yemen on 26 March 2015 in response to the calls by Abdrabbuh Mansur Haidi, the President of Yemen after he was removed from power by the Iranian backed Houthi movement.

Code named Operation Decisive Storm which initially lasted from 15 March 2015 to 21 April 2015, consisted of aerial bombing, naval blockade and the deployment of ground forces on the Yemeni soil by a coalition consisting of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Sudan, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain.

USA provided support to this 10-nation alliance including increased supply of arms and intelligence and logistical support but did not send any American soldier on the Yemeni soil.

The announcement of the Saudi Defence Ministry on 21 April 2015 that it was ending the military campaign in Yemen as its objectives had been met. However, this announcement was short lived and the very next day, fighting resumed.

A military stalemate over Yemen was declared in Yemen in 2019 and the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020 saw Saudi Arabia eager to pull out of Yemen. However, the attacks on civil and military facilities continue in both Yemen and Saudi Arabia on each other.

The latest attacks on each other being the killing of 7 people on 26 March 2022 in air strikes by the Royal Saudi Air Force on Sanaa and Hodeidah and earlier on 19-20 March 2022 when the Yemenis hit a Saudi oil plant in Jeddah which is Saudi Arabia’s second largest city and very close to the venue of Formula One race which was held on 27 March 2022, in a move which brought the issue to the international fore once again.

USA’s interest in Saudi Arabia is fast waning and in view of the likely success of the US-Iran nuclear talks in the near future, Saudi Arabia will have no option but to seek military help from either Russia or China. As Russia finds itself deeply embattled in the Russia-Ukraine War, the only option remains is China and China has a past history of predatory help. No help is given by China which is devoid of its self-interest. Recent examples being the taking over of Hambantota and Gwadar ports in Sri Lanka and Pakistan respectively as a fall out of the help rendered by China to Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

In the eventuality of China helping Saudi Arabia in case Saudi Arabia finds itself without any military support from either USA or Russia, the security scars in Saudi Arabia are likely to deepen further.

Babasaheb Ambedkar rightly remarked “History shows where ethics and economies come in conflict, victory is always with economics”. China knows this none too better and Saudi Arabia should learn a lesson or two from the chaos that Pakistan and Sri Lanka find themselves in.