Negation of the Durand line will bring to an end the artificial partitioning of the Pashtun people and will undo the injustice caused more than a century ago in dividing a people based on geo strategic interests that existed at that time in what was called the Great Game. It must also be remembered that the term “Pakhto” or “Pashto” from which the Pashtuns derive their name is not merely the name of their language, but is synonymous with a pre-Islamic honor code formally known as Pashtunwali (or Pakhtunwali). Pashtunwali governs and regulates nearly all aspects of Pashtun life ranging from tribal affairs to individual honour and behavior. A partitioning of Afghanistan into a Pashtun held South and East and a non Pashtun North and West will inevitably lead to the merger of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA into a larger Pashtun homeland. The outcome will be strategically beneficial for India.
The situation in Baluchistan is also volatile. The pursuit for freedom started soon after the province was forcibly annexed by the Pakistan military in 1948 culminating in a war of independence in 1973. It took the Pakistan military five years of bitter conflict to quell the Baluchis. But the aspirations for independence have not died and have resulted in an ongoing insurgency in the region. Nearly 150,000 military troops are stationed in Baluchistan along with over 40,000 troops of the frontier constabulary but this has not resulted in a decrease in violence levels. Of the 1786 attacks carried out by militants in the first ten months of 2010, Baluchistan accounted for 629 attacks – an average of two per day. This figure does not include clashes between security forces and militants, attacks by security forces, drone attacks etc.The situation in 2009 was no better. A comparison of the figures for attacks carried out by militants in 2009 and the first ten months of 2010 are given below.
In June 2010, Mehran Baluch, son of the legendary Baluch leader Nawab Khair Baksh Marri speaking at a conference organised by Interfaith International at Geneva stated… ‘let me assure whosoever matters that the armed boys of Pindi and Islamabad – who are also called the Taliban in uniform — will have to respect the concept of mine and thine as the Baloch people are resolved to undo the Pakistani conquest of their homeland on March 27, 1948…when the desire of freedom makes its place in the heart of the masses it becomes a material force no power on earth can defeat.
Baluchistan is sitting on a volcano ready to explode. If Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA merge into a larger Pashtun reality, it would be but a matter of time that Baluchistan will get its independence”¦
The 20 million Baloch people shall prevail.” Baluchistan is sitting on a volcano ready to explode. If Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA merge into a larger Pashtun reality, it would be but a matter of time that Baluchistan will get its independence and the might of the Pakistan’s armed forces will not be able to prevent such an outcome.
If Pakistan does balkanize, what then will be the status of Sind and Punjab? Both these provinces have complementary interests and are unlikely to go their separate ways should Pakistan balkanize. Neither will Pakistan Occupied Kashmir nor Gilgit-Baltistan. Pakistan’s nuclear assets will be safe in the hands of the ruling elite but the military threat will all but cease on India’s Western front. However, the threat to India is likely to take on a different hue. A radicalised Pakistan may well result in the movement of millions of Pakistan’s more liberal elements to seek shelter in India. How such a situation is to be countered is something which has to be thought out and factored into a future security calculus. Another major concern would be limiting the influence of radical Islamic ideology within India’s large Muslim population. Counter measures would lie in the realm of education curriculum, promotion of gender equality and economic development.
Finally, can such a scenario be avoided? The answer is yes but it would require drastic course corrections within Pakistan in the nature of its polity, its handling of the minorities and a drastic course correction in its educational curriculum. Traditionally, Pakistan in popular perception is being run by the three “A’s”- America, Army and Allah. The US can give massive doses of aid but its efforts are unlikely to be able to set the requisite course corrections. The Pakistan Army will do nothing to subvert its own interests and will do everything to preserve the status quo. Allah of course can save the nation, but what if Allah chooses to stay neutral? In the ultimate analysis, it is the people of Pakistan who have to rise to set right the destiny of their nation. It is a tall ask but not outside the realms of possibility. The people have to act fast for time is running out and Pakistan may soon reach the point of no return.
Notes
- All data of terrorist attacks and casualty figures given in this paragraph have been compiled from figures published by Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS). PIPS is an independent think tank in Pakistan.
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