Indian Defence Review

Assessment

The turnaround by Gaddafi and his bonhomie with the West was strategic coup of sort. Libya became one of the most ardent supporters of the ‘war against terrorism’. In fact, Libya was touted as a fine example of responsible change in the discourse of Islamic fundamentalism. Italy signed a friendship treaty with Libya in 2008. The treaty included a nonaggression clause. Also, Italy paid $ 5 billion to Libya to compensate for the colonial rule. Gaddafi’s son, Saif al-Islam, was awarded a PhD degree by the London School of Economics, allegedly, after having accepted 1.5 million pounds donation from Libya. All the major oil companies of the West were enthusiastic about the fresh and increasing prospects in Libya. It was a happy situation for the West. What went wrong then?

Given the geopolitical circumstances, the West can hope that it will be able to strangulate the economy of Libya in a quick time frame, thereby forcing the people especially in the West to abandon Gaddafi.

The regime change in Egypt, which ushered in the so-called ‘Jasmine Revolution’, if Wikileaks are to be believed, was engineered by the US for which it had been working since 2007. Egypt was to serve as the pivot for the geopolitical change in North Africa. The European powers, particularly France, were not comfortable with the happenings in Tunisia and to an extent in Egypt. When it comes to the North African region, the Europeans do not see it through the US strategic prism. The economic stakes of the North African region and Europe is intertwined, because of geography, separated as they are by only the Mediterranean Sea.

It is pertinent to note that most of Libya’s oil exports are to the European countries i.e. Italy – 38%, Germany – 19%, Spain – 8%, France – 7%, China – 7%, Greece – 3%, etc. Importantly, the oil sold by Libya to Europe is lighter and sweeter, which implies that it has low sulphur grades. The heavier crude oil is exported to Asian countries. In addition, oil supply from North Africa to Europe is most timely and cost effective. In the recent years, there has been rapid increase in export of gas from Libya to Europe. In 2004, the 540 kilometer long Green stream pipeline between Libya and Italy became operational. This pipeline has a capacity of 11 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year.

North Africa, particularly Libya, is therefore critical to the very well-being of Europe. It is for this reason that the French have taken the lead. It is for this reason that against all norms of international diplomacy, Italy has repudiated its 2008 friendship treaty with Libya and has allowed its military bases to enforce the no-fly zone.

Europe has given clear message to the US that they consider North Africa as their vital area of concern and influence, and therefore expect the same kind of reciprocation for their role in the US led intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Prognosis

There is no parallel between Iraq and Libya. The shock and awe that the world witnessed in the former case, is not applicable to Libya as the West is very reluctant to use ground troops. Moreover, there are divisions within Europe itself. Germany has already expressed reservation about military operations in Libya. A major part of the European population has already become war-weary, therefore, a backlash cannot be ruled out.

Though the Libyan army has 50,000 personnel (25,000 volunteers + 25,000 conscripts), most of its equipments i.e. 2000 tanks, 1,500 MIVs, and 2400 artillery pieces are obsolete or in a state of disrepair. Nevertheless, it has enough troops to prolong the conflict, especially by way of Guerilla warfare, if the Western coalition were to commit ground troops. The Libyan Army has 10 x tank battalions, 10 x mechanized battalions, 18 x infantry battalions, 6 x commando battalions, 22 x artillery battalions, 4 x SSM battalions and 7 x AD battalions.

The most important asset with Gaddafi is the Regime Security Brigade also known as the ‘Khamis Brigade’. The fighter prowess of the Libyan Army is not known as it has hardly been tested. Moreover, the air force though has more than 300 aircraft, which includes Mig-17, Mig-19, Mig-21, Mig-25, SU-22 and Mirage-III are obsolete and dangerous. The Libyan Navy, which has two destroyers and two frigates, is hardly any challenge. At one time it had acquired six submarines, none of which is operational.

The growing stability in the region may weaken the international counter-terrorism cooperation and focus. Fundamentalists and terrorists may find it convenient to grow and expand their tentacles in these uncertain conditions.

From the experience of Iraq, it can be possibly be deduced that under the sophistication and magnitude of the war machinery of the West, the Gaddafi forces would have capitulated if the combined weight of the coalition forces was to bear on Libya. The ongoing commitments in Iraq and Af-Pak theater has precluded that.

Therefore, a No Fly Zone may be a prolonged affair.

It is also possible that the east-west divide may contribute to further instability in Libya or at worst cause rupture of the country into two halves. That Gaddafi still has some very staunch supporters cannot be ignored.

A prolonged conflict in Libya is likely to send oil prices soaring.