Factors of Deterrence
China is deterred from taking military action against Taiwan on two levels. China does not yet possess the military capability to accomplish with confidence its political objectives on the island, particularly when confronted with outside intervention. Beijing is also deterred by the potential political and economic repercussions of any use of force against Taiwan. China’s leaders recognize that a war could severely retard economic development. Taiwan is China’s single largest source of foreign direct investment. An extended campaign would wreck Taiwan’s economic infrastructure, leading to high reconstruction costs. International sanctions against Beijing, either by individual states or by groups of states, could severely damage Beijing’s economic development. An insurgency against the occupation could tie up substantial forces for years.
Conflict with Taiwan also could lead to instability on the mainland. Maintaining internal security in wartime appears to be an important consideration in PLA planning, reflecting leadership concerns about political stability.
According to the Intelligence Community, China would have difficulty protecting its vital sea lanes of communication while simultaneously supporting blockade or invasion operations against the island. Conflict with Taiwan also could lead to instability on the mainland. Maintaining internal security in wartime appears to be an important consideration in PLA planning, reflecting leadership concerns about political stability. A conflict also would severely hurt the image China has sought to project regionally and globally in the post-Tiananmen years. If Beijing chose to use force against Taiwan, it would almost certainly face a boycott. Finally, Beijing’s planning must calculate the virtual certainty of US intervention, and Japanese interests, in any conflict in the Taiwan Strait. It views the United States, especially in combination with Japan, as having advantages over China in many scenarios involving the use of military force. China’s leaders also calculate that a conflict over Taiwan involving the United States would give rise to a long-term hostile relationship between the two nations.
The Taiwanese Apprehensions
Taiwan’s Minister of Defence is focused on what believes would be a blitzkrieg attempt on the PRC’s part to retake Taiwan with a goal: less damage, high effectiveness, rapid strike and decisive actions. Taiwan’s military planners believe that the PLA’s efforts in laser, information, aerospace and automatic technologies, as well as efforts to improve joint operation capabilities between naval and air forces in conjunction with the deployment of long-range strike weapon systems are all proceeding towards the goal of rapid and decisive victory.
“¦the Department of Defense, through the transformation of US Armed Forces and global force posture realignments, is maintaining the capacity to resist any effort by Beijing to resort to force or coercion to dictate the terms on Taiwans future status.
Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense foresees four possible scenarios for PRC military action, these are:
- Military Coercion: In this scenario, the PRC would fire ballistic missiles into the seas surrounding Taiwan, concentrate PLA forces directly across Taiwan Strait and possibly execute military expeditions to occupy Taiwan’s surrounding islets. PLA warships and fighters jets may initiate actual air and sea attacks or merely issue warnings to intimidate Taiwan. The media can become a tool of the PRC spreading fear and causing social unrest. Taken together with other psychological and economic pressures, this approach could secure Taiwan for the PRC with a minimum causalities and damage.
- Disconnected Warfare: In this scenario, the PRC would force Taiwan into reunification through three non-military forms of warfare – cyber warfare, electronic warfare and financial sabotage – as well as three limited forms of warfare – assassination and decapitation, precision strikes and raids by special forces to capture high value military and political targets. Another method might be to employ hackers, computer viruses, information bombs and electronic jamming to destroy or render inoperative Taiwan’s command, control and communications system. The PRC’s goal would be to cause unrest and ultimately a breakdown in economic societal and military order.
- Blockage Warfare: In this scenario, the PLA would attempt to seal off Taiwan’s seaports and cut off its lines of communication. The PLA can use ballistic missile defense tests, mine laying and military exercises to conduct a partial blockade and proclaim some portion of Taiwan’s offshore islets and sea route off limits. Alternatively, it could conduct a full-scale blockade of both maritime and air space to sever Taiwan’s export and import economic lifelines, depress morale and essentially force surrender through strangulation.
- High-intensity Strike: In this scenario, the PLA would utilize high-performance weapons and special forces to conduct highly destructive strikes that would achieve rapid and decisive dominance over Taiwan. Weapons involved here could include ballistic, cruise and anti-radiation missiles, as well as micro magnetic and electromagnetic pulse bombs. Saturated attacks and joint-precision strikes could destroy Taiwan’s centers of economic, political and military power. Taiwan considers a full-scale invasion by the PLA to be beyond the realm of possibility but it could in the future develop enough high-performance weapons to subdue Taiwan to the point that full-scale invasion might be possible.
Taiwan views the first three scenarios as ‘most likely’. Some Taiwanese Military strategists have put forward the idea of preemptive defence, that is maintaining a strong deterrence posture during peacetime and improving long-range precision-strike and information warfare capability. Other defensive measure possible during wartime would include anti-blockade, anti-submarine and cyber warfare against China’s command, control and communications systems.
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