Rapid developments are taking place in the Ukraine crisis. Addressing a press conference in Kyiv on January 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on the West not to create panic amid the build-up of Russian troops since warnings of imminent invasion were putting Ukraine’s economy at risk. He said destabilization of the situation inside the country was the biggest threat to Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has suggested Zelensky should visit Moscow or Sochi to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss normalization of relations. The US perceives Putin wants a regime change in Ukraine. Concurrently, speaking to French President Macron, Putin said the West has failed to address Russian concerns though Russia will not start the war.
American and NATO rejection of the Russian proposals on Ukraine were foregone conclusions. NATO’s counter offer of reopening NATO’s and Russia’s respective diplomatic missions, starting new talks on arms control and rules for intermediate and short-range missiles, and proposing new rules for transparency on military exercises and nuclear doctrines at best are stalling efforts, not really to defuse the situation and avoid a US-Russia Cold War as Russia has amassed 1,00,000 troops on the border with Ukraine and deployed fighter jets in Belarus.
The US wants a UNSC meeting on January 31, however, the UNSC at best will ask all concerned to exercise restraint. Also, the US has put 8,500 troops on high alert, but President Joe Biden has indicated that his main weapon will be sanctions, which will also be invoked against Putin if Russia invades Ukraine. The US has lined up multiple sanctions including travel bans against Putin’s aides, his family, and former Russian Olympic gymnast Alina Kabaeva describing her as Putin’s “alleged mistress” in a sanctions bill introduced in US Congress.
Putin has been seriously concerned about NATO’s eastward expansion. His demands include NATO to roll back its military deployments in the region as missile deployments can hit Moscow within minutes. Russia also wants formal veto on Ukraine from joining NATO. According to a former KGB officer, the increasing presence of NATO in Eastern Europe and the West’s close ties with Ukraine have been at the crux of Russia’s demands in the Ukraine standoff.
After the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, Biden is using the Ukraine issue as rallying point to smoothen EU’s ruffled feathers whose nationals were left stranded in Afghanistan. Some scholars have been projecting the Ukraine issue solely between Europe and Russia, which it is not. After BREXIT, EU is left with limited military capability, which it is reviewing. NATO on the other hand seeks employment elsewhere after withdrawing from Afghanistan.
Capitalizing on the pro-West government in Ukraine, Biden is acting tough since it helps deflect from his own problems at home. His disapproval rating hit a new high in December 2021 as 56 percent of voters disapproved of his handling of the economy and the Covid-19 pandemic. Interestingly, Van Jackson wrote on January 9, 2022, that America’s policy in Asia has reached a dead end since it has no economic strategy for the region, not since Obama’s ill-fated attempt to negotiate a new US-Asia trade agreement, and it is unrealistic to expect any economic strategy beyond the free-trade pabulum which is at odds with domestic political constraints.
Germany blocked NATO ally Estonia from transferring German-origin howitzers to Ukraine. But Germany is showing solidarity with the EU and NATO. German Naval Chief Kay-Achim Schönbach had to resign because of his remark that Crimea would not return to Ukraine and that Putin deserved respect. Germany had initially said Russia’s Nord Stream 2 should be left out of the conflict but apparently now is ready to nix the deal. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz who had declined to visit the US has been wooed to join Biden at the White House on February 7.
But Germany is against arms shipments to Ukraine. As for France, President Emmanuel Macron has been calling for greater European military integration and that Europe should have its own dialogue with Russia. Media reports indicate that both France and Germany do not perceive an imminent Russian offensive.
Britain has accused Russia of trying to install a puppet regime in Ukraine, which Russia has denied. Now British Defence Minister Ben Wallace says Russia is a nuclear power and should not be afraid of NATO, Ukraine or other countries, but that is equally applicable to the UK, the US and NATO. Wallace said the British side is ready to engage in a constructive dialogue and has invited his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu to visit London in coming weeks.
US-Russia relations soured in 2016 when America accused Russia of meddling in the US presidential elections, using chemical weapons against enemies abroad and cracking down on dissent in Russia. Putin faced mass protests at home last year against his treatment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Presently, the West is continuing to pump arms into Ukraine. Canada has sent its Special Forces to Ukraine where US Special Forces have been present for the past several years.
The US asked China to prevail upon Russia to ease pressure on Ukraine, to which China responded that adherence to the Minsk Agreement is essential. But now China has publicly backed Russia and slammed NATO with China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian telling reporters on January 26, “As the world’s largest military alliance, NATO should abandon the outdated Cold War mentality and ideological bias, and do things that are conducive to upholding peace and stability. China firmly opposes all kinds of small cliques.” He called on all parties to fully consider each other’s legitimate security concerns.
Diplomatic parleys between the West and Russia may still continue for next few weeks but chances of a mutually agreeable deal are slim. At some point of time, Russia may consider its red-lines are being violated with the West continuing to arm Ukraine and NATO beefing up deployments in Eastern Europe. Putin had already warned Biden that Western military activity in and around Ukraine was approaching a “red line” threatening Russia’s security.
There is a view that Putin cannot pull back at this stage because of public opinion at home. The answer is a Russia-Ukraine agreement or the West and Russia resolving mutual security concerns. However, outright rejection of the Russian proposals indicates US-NATO is in no mood to accommodate. Besides, Ukraine is seeking membership of the EU, and in the long run of NATO. Ukraine not being a NATO member, NATO is not duty bound to intervene in a Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, in all probability it could, but discover it is no cakewalk like Afghanistan or the Middle East.
Biden said on January 27 he believed Russia could attack Ukraine next month. How could hostilities pan out? Some analysts opine Russia has sufficient force ratio to be able to seize quite a lot of Ukrainian territory. Others feel that full scale invasion is possible both by land and sea which will be disastrous for Ukraine. However, this will have consequences for Russia as well as for the US-NATO and EU.
Putin is unlikely to attempt to annex whole of Ukraine. Instead, he could use proxy forces in the Donbas region in conjunction with Ukrainians favouring Russia – about one-third of the Ukrainian population mostly adjoining the Russian border speak Russian and want closer ties with Russia. But this alone would unlikely meet Russia’s geostrategic objectives of also opening a direct route from mainland Russia to the Sevastopol Port in Crimea. If conflict does break out, Putin would have taken into account the US-NATO reaction.
Biden has admitted that the US cannot deter Russia’s Ukraine invasion, which he said is likely and will be met with US sanctions. By saying so, has Biden in effect conveyed that minor Russian incursions in Ukraine are acceptable, but not full-scale invasion? Logically, Putin may use hybrid warfare including application of proxy forces, cyber attacks, blinding enemy surveillance and striking air and air defence to achieve Russian objectives.
The US needs to bear in mind how the conflict in Ukraine could be used by China to throttle Taiwan incrementally, without a full-scale invasion or otherwise notwithstanding the internal dissent within China’s Communist Party (CCP), which could well be the very reason for Xi Jinping to act. Speaking at the Reagan National Defence Forum on December 5, 2021, Lloyd Austin, US Defence Secretary had warned that China’s air incursions by fighter jets, bombers and other warplanes near Taiwan appeared to be rehearsals for military operations against the country, saying, “It looks lot like them exploring their true capabilities and sure look like rehearsals.”
On January 23, China flew 39 warplanes to enter Taiwan’s SW ADIZ (not into Taiwan’s sovereign airspace) that included 34 fighter aircrafts, two electronic warfare aircraft, two intelligence gathering planes and H-6 bomber. For past the six months, China has also established the permanent presence of one warship in the waters between Taiwan and Japan. As per news reports of January 26, 2022, Taiwan is worried that China’s YJ-12 anti-ship missiles pose a direct threat to US aircraft carrier strike groups as the YJ-12 has an advantage over the air defence systems on US warships. China has deployed the YJ-12 to the shoreline and artificial islands in the South China Sea.
In June 2021, Nikki Hailey had warned that China is hell-bent on world domination and that Taiwan is ground zero. She had recommended a ‘full’ boycott of the Winter Olympics in Beijing in 2022 (February 4-20) but the Biden administration did not go beyond a diplomatic boycott. A coordinated Russia-China action against Ukraine and Taiwan could well be their response to America’s Game of Sanctions.
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