Indian Defence Review

On 27 November of last year, President Obama stepped outside the White House for pardoning a lucky turkey named Popcorn saving it from slaughter during the upcoming Thanksgiving festivities, while also saying jokingly, “The office of the presidency, the most powerful position in the world, brings with it many awesome and solemn responsibilities. This is not one of them.” Popcorn was ostensibly one of the 80 contestants. Interestingly, voters across the country got to choose between finalists Popcorn and another top contestant named Caramel by casting ballots via Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.

But this is not about the turkey bird. When it comes to a country, Pakistan appears to have an all time pardon from the US Administration – read President.  The simile with Popcorn is because Pakistan went turkey from the Zia-ul-Haq era by institutionalizing terrorism and adopting terrorism as a state policy. Unlike Popcorn, Pakistan has never had to compete with 80 contestants and that too annually. It defies the whole world and gets the presidential pardon on bidding of the US Administration even as the US public loathes Pakistan and its military spawning terrorism around the world. But why mention US only; even successive Chinese Presidents continue to grant presidential pardon to this turkey no matter Pakistan’s underhand support to the ETIM and Uighurs in Xinjiang because  Pakistan has opened her back garden of Gilgit-Baltistan for the dragon to freely lay her eggs wherever she wants?  Witness the brashness with which Pakistan organized the JuD rally in Lahore with full state support.

The star mascot Hafiz Saeed yapped to the radicalized rabble about the dead issue of plebiscite in Kashmir, even as the UNSC had snubbed Nawaz Shari’s bid to internationalize the Kashmir issue through his address at the UNGA. But what is relevant here is that by propping up Hafiz Saeed openly in an anti-India rally Pakistan was thumbing the UNSC in its nose in complete disregard to the restrictions placed on this rabid mullah, not counting notional bounty placed by the US on his head. Even more significant was the simultaneous Pakistani ISI-Let engineered terror attacks in J&K on 5th December 2014 including on an army camp. During the extraordinary long US visit to the United States by Raheel Sharif, Pakistani army chief, US secretary of State John Kerry described the Pakistani army as a “truly binding force”. Sharif also met all the US Service Chiefs and was conferred the US Legion of Merit medal. Interestingly, in immediate aftermath of the 5th December terror strikes in J&K the US administration spokeswoman was quick to say that the terror attacks should not be linked to the visit by Raheel Sharif to the US – why the explanation and who asked for it in the first place?  Obviously US authorities would have discussed multiple issues with Raheel Sharif including the future of Afghanistan, South Asia, Middle East, Chechnya, Xinjiang, protection of residual US-NATO forces in Afghanistan etc. Perhaps Raheel Sharif also indirectly assured no terrorist attack during Obama’s forthcoming visit to New Delhi if the payoffs were right.

Pakistan has recently been placed eighth in the list of the most dangerous countries in the world; in the Country Threat Index (CTI) compiled by IntelCenter, a Washington-based company working for intelligence agencies. This is hardly surprising when it runs special trains for a public congregation for a ‘social worker’ like Hafiz Saeed, which provides the best of training facilities for ‘good terrorists’ and exports them to India, Afghanistan, Xinjiang and the rest of the world where Shia Muslims are exterminated because they are Shias, Hazaras and Ahmediyas, which still shelters Al-Jawahiri and Mullah Omar, like it hid Osama-bin-Laden for years.

However, all this does not affect the presidential pardons by US and China to Pakistan as ISI generated proxies can also be used by big powers to achieve individual strategic aims be it in Afghanistan, China, Syria, Iraq or elsewhere in the Middle East. That this strategic requirement will only expand is obvious. That is why US has looked the other way even despite blatant nuclear proliferation by Pakistan and never even questioned AQ Khan. China’s land route to the Persian Gulf is through Pakistan. Pakistan shelters a special unit of ETIM on her soil, has arranged over 100 ETIM cadres to join up with the ISIS but convinces China she will do all to deter terrorism in Xinjiang.

China doesn’t mind Pakistan’s double game because of her economic corridor going down to Gwadar – future naval base with proximity to the Persian Gulf, deployment of missiles in Gilgit-Baltistan to support PLAN in IOR, increasing territorial ambitions in Kashmir, and the like. That is why Chinese investments in Pakistan exceed $45 billion only for the economic corridor and bilateral trade aimed to touch $100 billion. So it is hardly surprising that Pakistan is acquiring greater arrogance and brashness. Just days prior to the 5th December terror attacks in J&K, Asad Durrani, a former head of Pakistan’s ISI delivered a speech on Afghanistan in London. Myra McDonald writes, “It was hard to miss the note of triumph. Afghanistan, he (Asad Durrani) said, had already seen off two major world powers – the British Empire in the 19th century and the Soviet Union in the 20th. Now a third, the United States was heading for the exit.”

For anyone who believes Pakistan’s aim in Afghanistan all along has been to turn the clock back to Sept 10, 2001 – when it exercised its influence over the country through its Taliban allies – it could almost have been a victory speech. Sridhar Chari writes on Facebook, “Pakistan reminds me of the ancient king Ajatshatru. He had to keep finding enemies to fight the demons in his own head. He did realize eventually that this was not the best way to find peace.” But then the Pakistani military never wanted to find peace. It has always sought sub-conventional conflict with India and Afghanistan in order to retain its hold on money, power and most importantly, Pakistan. But tell me if this new found Pakistani confidence is not because of the presidential pardons by US and China and where does this leave India?

Yes, there has been public outrage in Pakistan post the massacre of 151 innocents including 132 school children in Army Public School, Peshawar on 16 December 2014, the responsibility for the brutal attack having been claimed by the wing of the TTP that has joined the ISIS in the recent past. But what was the aftermath: concerted aerial attacks in North Waziristan that are killing scores of civilians and possibly unknown number of Taliban; the army chief flying to Afghanistan demanding extradition of TTP chief Mullah Fazlullah as if he is a prisoner there and knowing full well the ISI has been facilitating Fazlullah’s transit between Pakistan and Afghanistan in concert with Afghan Taliban; Musharraf accusing PM Modi for the Peshawar massacre; Hafiz Saeed insinuation R&AW of having orchestrated the attack in conjunction Afghanistan and threatening India with more 26/11 type terrorist attacks; Nawaz Sharif declaring war on terrorism but only against TTP; simultaneous to declaration of war on terrorism, granting bail to Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi of LeT and mastermind of 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attack albeit imprisoned again after protests by India and from within Pakistan; releasing Malik Ishaq chief of LeJ from prison on 22 December 2014 as another snub to India and in continuing the farce of war on terrorism, and; hangings of terrorists languishing in prison since long because of its ban, now lifted by Musharraf. In wake of continuing indiscriminate aerial bombings, the TTP has said that more children of political and military leaders including of Nawaz Sharif will be targeted and killed.

Nawaz Sharif admits now there are no ‘good’ and ‘bad’ Taliban but continues with the policy of selective targeting – read ‘good’ and ‘bad’ terrorists / terrorist organizations. But despite the public furor against terrorism following the Peshawar massacre, prospects of change in policy of terrorism is unlikely in Pakistan. In the first place, who exactly are the Pakistan Taliban? Sure they are the successor to the Mujahedeen but it was the Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban who were fighting to oust the Soviets from Afghanistan. The TTP or Pakistan Taliban are very much Pakistani nationals radicalized and armed by Pakistan for its own strategic interests in Afghan Territory; achieving strategic depth. That is why when the Americans invaded Afghanistan they found no less than a Division worth of Pakistan army including SSG troops (disguised as Taliban) fighting inside Afghanistan along with some 9000 strong Taliban, 6000 of the Taliban being from Punjab and not NWFP. Yet the US on request of the then Pakistani army chief Pervez Musharraf facilitated the air evacuation of all Pakistani troops and Pakistan Talban from areas like Kunduz and Khost for obvious future use as strategic assets.

Now that Pakistan has trained 20 Mujahid battalions to operate as and in conjunction Taliban in post 2014 Afghanistan, it needs to be appreciated that these 20 battalions amount to some two and a half division (one division generally comprising nine infantry battalions; three each per brigade) worth and the Pakistan Taliban also is much stronger both in numbers and armament and is aligned with the ISIS as well as the Afghan Taliban – the sum total also being strategic assets of both US and China with Pakistan the Middle Man in the Great Game unfolding in South Asia.

Brigadier General Abdul Raziq, Chief of Afghan National Police in Kandhar Province on 19 December 2014 has reportedly ordered his forces to attack the TTP “inside Pakistan” amidst rising tensions but then the TTP is well linked to the ISI and Afghan Taliban. Besides Afghanistan is short of artillery and helicopters whereas Pakistan has been undertaking artillery supported heliborne raids in Afghanistan since 2011 on pretext of ‘hot pursuit’ especially in Kunar and Nangalhar Provinces. The ISI links with major terrorist organizations including TTP, Pakistan Taliban, Al Qaeda and Haqqanis are well established, reported by Pakistani and foreign media, BBC documentary ‘Secret Pakistan’ and in very focused manner in the book ‘Fighting to the End : The Pakistan Army’s Way of War’ by Christine Fair. Since 1992, 56 Pakistani journalists have been killed in exposing the ISI terrorist nexus and the Pakistani military wanted Geo TV shut for the same in recent months.

Tufail Ahmad, Director of South Asia Studies Project at the Middle East Media Research Institute, Washington DC has described the situation in Pakistan very succinctly through an article last month titled ‘ISI asserts total control on Pakistan’s Policy Making’ saying, “The ideology of this carnage (Peshawar carnage of 16th December) is authored by the Pakistani ISI. Among the analysts of Pakistan affairs, there is consensus that the ISI has created, nurtured and shepherded jihadist groups in order to use them against Afghanistan and India. Testifying before the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee on September 22, 2011, top US military officer Admiral Mike Mullen described the Afghan Taliban as “a veritable arm” of the ISI. Both the ISI and Al-Qaeda advocate jihad and establishment of an Islamic caliphate, with the only minor difference being that the ISI wants Pakistan to be the leader of such a global Islamic regime.”

More importantly, he describes how methodically the ISI has taken full control of policy making in Pakistan, especially during 2014. That Pakistan’s dynamics will likely remain grim is also endorsed by Aesha Siddiqa, Islamabad-based defence analyst (author of book ‘Military Inc: Inside Pakistan’s Military Economy’) through her recent article ‘Strategic assets no longer maintainable’ wherein she wrote, “With Hafiz Saeed riding around on horseback in the country’s urban centres like Lahore peddling jihad, or the Lal Masjid cleric going about his business in the heart of the capital city, or the government and political parties shying away from amending rules on blasphemy, the basic mindset that drives violent extremism is likely to continue and even thrive.”

Amidst all the peace homilies, the strategy of China will likely be to continue her nexus with Pakistan to the detriment of India. China already had established links with Taliban even before the US invaded Afghanistan in year 2000. So she will continue to use these links reinforced with Pakistani military-terrorist group connections to safeguard her economic and strategic interests in Afghanistan. That leaves the US whose aims have generally been unpredictable and ambiguous. Though John Carry has been dialoguing with the Pakistani military chief, significantly the US Administration has no comment to offer on the ‘selective’ war on terrorism declared by Nawaz Sharif, leaving the Pakistani army free to up the proxy war against India – LeT, LeJ and the like led by jaundiced mullahs like Hafiz Saeed with veterans like Musharraf and Hamid Gul waiting upon him. Prime Minister Modi would need to do some plain speaking in this regard with President Obama when he visits India next month.