Indian Defence Review

Answering a question on Taiwan by a visiting Indian delegation from the National Defence College in year 2000, a Chinese military official said that merging Taiwan with China was their top priority and China cannot wait for 100 years. Questioned further when that would happen, the response was “soon”. However, China perhaps realizes that declaration of independence or not Taiwan is a full-fledged nation whose citizens enjoy the fruits of democracy. It is also perhaps becoming apparent that western response to China attacking Taiwan in whatever form will in all probability be accompanied by asymmetrically destabilizing China internally; West being adept in this form of warfare.

What China doesn’t realize is that the highly restrictive policies of the CCP, thrust upon the Chinese populace, are assisting future destabilization. At the same time, recent reorganization including command and control structure of the PLA, ushering tighter control of the CCP, actually indicates a latent sense of CCP’s insecurity on account of growing public restiveness, brouhaha of Space Force, Rocket Force and Strategic Support Forces notwithstanding. Xinhua’s assertion that “CPC has absolute leadership of the armed forces and military will be the armed wing of the CCP remaining independent of the government” fails to hide the softening underbelly of the dragon.

The landslide election of independence-leaning opposition leader, President-elect Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwan securing 56.12 percent of the vote is viewed in China as someone stepping with a hobnailed boot on the dragon’s tail. Possibly the tail will now twitch even more having carried out cross-strait live-fire drills during September 2015. In her first comments to media with reference to China, Tsai said, “Our democratic system, national identity and international space must be respected. Any forms of suppression will harm the stability of cross-strait relations.” Beijing responded sternly warning that the Chinese government would “resolutely oppose any form of secessionist activities seeking ‘Taiwan independence’.

For China 2013 was a year of the yin water snake starting February 10 to  January 30, 2014, so there was much muscle flexing in the waters of Asia-Pacific even stretching beyond into 2015.The next year of the yin water snake only occurs in 2025, preceded by the year of the dragon. Is that when China will strike Taiwan or earlier? But territorial greed apart, China’s strategic objective is the deep water ports of Taiwan that would  enable her SSBNs to quietly slink underwater for forays into the SCS, and beyond to the Pacific and Indo-Pacific.

The KMT losing its grip over legislature in Taiwan because of pro-China leanings indicates public sentiments. But this is just a slice of turbulence that Asia-Pacific is witnessing, with blatantly aggressive Chinese stance angering most of her neighbours. Interestingly, China’s financial largesse to Cambodia and Laos to influence perceptions in ASEAN isn’t working. The November 2015 ASEAN ADMM+ meeting in Kuala Lumpur saw plenty of fireworks, with the meeting failing to even issue a joint statement. The meeting witnessed contradictory exchanges between China and her rightfully agitated neighbours like Philippines and Vietnam, and even Indonesia.

China’s continuing  obduracy and unwillingness to abide by global laws and norms was on display even before the meeting when she refused to participate in proceedings of the Hague based Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on the SCS; case taken up by Philippines, and the PCA awarding the first decision in favour of Philippines. China remains cursed by her medieval belief that any place under the sun belongs to China. Hence, China believes any territory she claims, however illegally, cannot be contested and any laws, local or regional, must be with Chinese characteristics.

Meanwhile, the half hearted freedom of navigation operational patrols (FONOP) conducted by the US Navy in SCS during 2015 by sending USS Lassen near Subi reef may have actually boosted Chinese aggressiveness. By not crossing the 12 nm limit, the US indirectly accorded a maritime zone to an artificial island, which it is not entitled. Artificial islands are entitled to only 500m safety zone. Under international law, China cannot claim 12nm territorial space or any airspace. So, while the US says it will continue with FONOP patrols, it makes little sense if they keep a distance of 12nm or more. That US will not challenge Chinese civil aircraft landing on China’s artificial islands is already apparent.

The deployment of China’s advanced J-11BH / BHS fighters to Woody Island in October last year is a forerunner to what might occur in the Spratly islands. Beijing has already constructed two lighthouses on the Cuarteron Reef and Johnson South Reef in the Spratly Islands in a bid to legitimize China’s claim to the Spratly. Additionally, having completed the runway and support facilities at Fiery Cross Reef, China has test landed civil aircraft there. This is a prelude to landing bigger aircraft after the support facilities are upgraded; pursuant to converting it into a civil transport aircraft base and eventually a military base. That this will be the pattern for other reefs like Subi and Mischief is very apparent also.

So what are Chinese plans for SCS? Her actions appear synonymous to the string of girls thronging the pavement outside most Shanghai hotels who will approach you saying they only want to share a cup of coffee. So China will build up on her activities by operating forward bases, expanding them to crisscross entire SCS so that they become routine over a period of time, till she can take it over completely. The Chinese game plan is to have permanent presence of fishing boats, oil exploration crews and Coast Guard in the Spratlys, which are provided communications, radar and electronic warfare cover besides technical support by the PLA. Such deployments will eventually lead to PLAN vessels and military aircraft being based there.

China’s Haiyang Shiyou 981 (HD-981) oil rig that had withdrawn from Vietnamese waters in 2014 after much Chinese naval activity to bully Vietnamese naval craft through physically brushing, jostling, firing water cannons and low aircraft passes, was redeployed during 2015 off the coast of China’s Hainan Island, in waters where the disputed EEZs of Vietnam and China overlap. High on military power China apparently doesn’t remember what Vietnam taught the Americans and more importantly the lesson China learned while herself invading Vietnam to teach them a lesson.  Vietnam is to have a Submarine Brigade based at Cam Ranh Bay operational by 2017.

The Varshavyanka-class submarines capable of operating in shallow waters are designed for anti-submarine warfare, anti-shipping and anti-surface ship warfare, reconnaissance, defending naval bases and coastlines. These submarines are already undertaking patrols along Vietnam’s coast. The submarine brigade contributes in a major way to Vietnam’s capability of anti-access / area denial capabilities against anyone entering Vietnamese waters with hostile intent. Obviously, Vietnam’s counter-intervention strategy would integrate shore-based artillery and missile systems, plus SU-30 multirole jet fighters, fast attack craft and other naval assets. China sure has superior military power but then Vietnam has the will and the muscle to make Chinese adventurism costly with capability to strike even Hainan and Woody islands.

That Asia-Pacific will continue to witness turbulence is obvious. China will like to continue reclamation of land, enlarging construction of facilities on artificial islands and creeping forward along her road map for their eventual militarization. In between there would likely be intermittent physical actions of approaching and parking in disputed waters to test reaction of her neighbours including Japan, and the US. All this while China will keep singing peace lullabies while endeavouring to enforce a code of conduct with ‘Chinese characteristics’ in South China Sea. It would be interesting to watch Chinese antics and responses to such moved by the regional and global players.