Geopolitics

Touted as a peace deal, the Taliban celebrates U.S. withdrawal as a victory
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The Taliban have said that their attacks on Afghan forces do not violate the withdrawal agreement. In addition, the Taliban’s online platform, Nawai Afghan Jihad (the Voice of Afghan Jihad), publicly boasts their “armed operations [are] ordinary or normal jihadi activity.” While Taliban violence surges against the Afghan people and heavy casualties continue to be inflicted since the confirmation of the ‘peace’ deal, the US-led NATO task force in Afghanistan unconscionably stopped reporting numerical data about the attacks at the start of May 2020.If the number and severity of Taliban attacks is not reported and cannot be abated, the existing Afghan government will soon succumb to the IEA.

The Taliban currently controls approximately 19 percent of the districts, while directing contesting nearly another 48 percent. Clearly, the IEA remains the central goal of the Taliban.

Established in 1996, the Taliban have committed themselves to being recognized as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) — a jihadi proto-state governed by a strict interpretation of sharia law. Between 1994 (with the fall of Kabul and Kandahar) and 2001, the Taliban rose to significant power, subsequently taking control of the majority of Afghanistan. As a result, the transnational jihadist groupal-Qaeda (AQ) was able to effectively use Afghanistan as a base to attack the United States on 9/11. In the months to follow, the IEA refused to turn over Osama bin Laden, standing against sanctions and pressure from the United States. In 2011, bin Laden was killed in Abbottabad, Pakistan,by a United States military special operations unit.

At the height of Taliban rule, only a fraction of Afghanistan remained under the control of the internationally-recognized Northern Alliance. In December 2001, on the heels of a crushing US-led response to the 9/11 attacks, the IEA was ultimately quelled by the Northern Alliance and a number of assisting assets. Even so, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan — an Afghan government marked by a few democratic structures — continues to struggle in their fight against the Taliban and its allies, including AQ. For years, painstaking efforts have been made to prevent the South Asian country from falling back under the control of the authoritarian regime.

As leader of the Afghan Interim Administration and president of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan between 2001 and 2014, Hamid Karzaibegan to propose meetings with Taliban leaders in 2010 to end the ongoing Taliban insurgency through peace negotiations. Democratically elected in 2014, Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, the current president of Afghanistan also thought it necessary and possible to strike a deal for peace with the Taliban. He has gone as far as being willing to recognize them as a legitimate political group in Afghanistan. Interestingly, the Taliban continues to contest a significant number of the 398 districts in Afghanistan, having gained the control of more territory in Afghanistan since 9/11. The Taliban currently controls approximately 19 percent of the districts, while directing contesting nearly another 48 percent. Clearly, the IEA remains the central goal of the Taliban.

To even bring the idea of peace to the table, the Taliban should have been obligated to publicly disavow their sworn allegiances from groups like AQ and state sponsors of terrorism like Pakistan.

While scattered attempts have been made in the previous decade to end “America’s longest war” through peace negotiations with the Taliban, efforts markedly intensified in 2018. An ensuing series of on and off peace talks with the Taliban finally came to an apparent halt under the administration of President Donald Trump. Not only was the Afghan government not allowed to participate in these negotiations(as Ghani was excluded from the from the talks and from the agreement), it’s also quite troubling that the formal agreement drastically favors the Taliban (i.e. the prisoner exchange ratio of 5,000 to 1,000— including requests for the release of key Taliban commanders — and the removal of sanctions against members of the Taliban by August 27, 2020), and the deal — which was endorsed by the UN Security Council — does not provide any conditions for the Taliban to halt attacks against Afghan forces.

It should also be noted that Pakistan, a state sponsor of terrorism which provides support to the Taliban and sanctuary to its top leaders, is not once mentioned in the deal. The Pakistani military and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) continue to support and embrace a boundless system of madrass as and training camps. A recent UN Security Council report (S/2020/415) published near the end of May says, “one Member State reported that the total number of Pakistani nationals fighting with terrorist groups in Afghanistan may be as high as 6,000 to 6,500.”

While those numbers are likely underestimated, jihadis continue to funnel through Peshawar from the Indian subcontinent into Afghanistan, as Pakistan controls the overland supply routes. When the Taliban retakes control of Afghanistan, AQ and their affiliates will be right back in business — the business of killing to re-establish the Islamic Emirate.

Pre-9/11 meetings occurred between Iran, AQ, and the Taliban, leading to the fact that Iran and Hizballah were co-responsible for the 9/11 attacks. To this day, Iran supports the Taliban. Ultimately, Iran supports the Taliban because they’re fighting the presence of the West, or maybe more specifically, the non-Islamic forces in the region. It should be also be emphasized that, even since 9/11, AQ has maintained its bay’ah (oath of allegiance) to the Taliban. Even after Osama bin Laden and Mullah Mohammed Omar were killed in 2011 and 2013, respectively, AQ’s oath remained uninterrupted. In 2015, Ayman al-Zawahiri swore his allegiance to Omar’s successor, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour. After Mansour was killed in 2016, Zawahiri pledged his allegiance to Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada, the current emir of the Taliban.

…has the US actually turned a blind eye to the fact Afghanistan soil will certainly continue — in plain sight — to be used to threaten the security of the United States and its allies around the globe, particularly India and Israel?

The point is that AQ’s oath of allegiance to the Taliban has been in effect for a very long time through multiple individuals, and their allegiance remains in effect to present day. Akhundzada (who has reportedly grown gravely ill) has yet to publicly renounce Zawahiri’s oath of allegiance. Interestingly, Akhundzadais referred to as the emir al mu‘minin (Emir of the Faithful)by AQ, a term of a would-be caliph. Denouncing the oaths between these organizations would have been a rational place to begin the so-called peace talks with the Taliban. To even bring the idea of peace to the table, the Taliban should have been obligated to publicly disavow their sworn allegiances from groups like AQ and state sponsors of terrorism like Pakistan.

Peace agreement — or withdrawal agreement?

The US has been trying to extricate itself from Afghanistan for a long time. During his presidency, Barack Obama had hoped Afghan forces would have defeated the Taliban-led insurgency alongside a number of allies, but this was not the case. President Donald Trump initially increased American presence in the region, then decided not to invest America’s resources in defeating the Taliban by force. Without a clear plan to defeat the Taliban, negotiating with the deep-seated organization was brought to the table again…and again.

And on February 29, 2020, in Doha, Qatar, US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban leader Mullah Baradar Akhund signed the “Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan” — which has been touted as a peace deal agreement with the Taliban. According to part one of the three-and-a-half-page conditional agreement (which is accompanied by secret annexes), “the United States is committed to withdraw from Afghanistan all military forces of the United States, its allies, and Coalition partners, including all non-diplomatic civilian personnel, private security contractors, trainers, advisors, and supporting services personnel within fourteen (14) months following announcement of this agreement…” US forces will be reduced to from 13,000 to 8,600 within 135 days of the agreement — with plans to withdraw all of its forces within 14 months.

Following the alleged period of a reduction in violence (RiV) for seven days leading into the signing of the deal, the Taliban resumed deadly attacks against Afghan security forces on a daily basis. The Taliban publicly claims responsibly for the greater majority of attacks that have taken place in nearly all of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. Unsurprisingly, it was not long after the Trump administration landed the ‘historic’ agreement, Akhundzada declared victory for the entire Muslim and mujahid nation. The Taliban had already long-considered the US-Taliban ‘peace’ talks a necessary step to advance the withdrawal of U.S. and foreign forces from Afghanistan.

As attacks continue to occur and alliances remain undeterred in Afghanistan, it is naïve, irresponsible, and incredibly dangerous to believe the US and Taliban have entered into a ‘peace’ deal with the world’s deadliest…

Rex Tillerson served as US Secretary of State between February 2017 and March 2018. In October 2017, he said, “…there are, we believe, moderate voices among the Taliban, voices that do not want to continue to fight forever.” At the time, Tillerson said there was “a place for [the Taliban] in the government if they [were] ready to come, renouncing terrorism, renouncing violence, and being committed to a stable prosperous Afghanistan.” Rather than a reduction of terror and violence in the region, the ‘moderate’ Taliban’s relentless attacks on Afghan security units continued. Following Tillerson, Michael Pompeo has assumed the position of Secretary of State since April 2018 — and the rhetoric of a high-ranking US government official did not end. Having “[taken] the fight to the Taliban these last two years,” Pompeo seemed convinced in a March 2020 interview that “[the Taliban], for the first time, have announced that they’re prepared to break with their celebrated ally, AQ, who they’ve worked with much [to] the detriment of the United States of America.” Meanwhile, the Taliban has left this promise unfulfilled, having not expelled, captured, or executed a single member of AQ to date.

The Taliban’s advancing victory

On the morning of March 1, 2020 — the day following the signing of the professed peace agreement — the Taliban began making preparations for large-scale attacks to gain control of Kabul and key provinces in Afghanistan, according to a May 16 report in the Urdu daily Roznama Ummat. The report specifically stated “as per the sources in the Military Commission, the Afghan Taliban have from March 1 until now made complete preparations and, whenever the permission is granted, the capital [Kabul] and important provinces will be occupied.”

Concurrently, AQ’s senior leadership began praising the Taliban’s triumph over America and its allies in Afghanistan. At three-page statement released by AQ encourages scholars, wealthy donors, and others “to support the [Islamic Emirate] leadership” in its effort to “birth [an] Islamic state which [judges by] the true Allah’s law (sharia).” The statement also urges Muslims to “perform jihad for the sake of Allah his true jihad, and increase with patience and assurance, and the unity of the word, the word of believing in the one Allah, so this is the only way to get out of the domination of the infidels, and grab the freedom, and the victory against the enemy of Islam and the Muslims.” According to the statement, thanks shall be given “to the exalted Allah first and last concerning this great victory.” As could be predicted, the Taliban issued a fatwa (a religious decree) on March 5, which provides the ‘lawful’ justification for the group to “continue waging armed jihad” until the totalitarian Islamic state called the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is fully established.

Meanwhile, the Taliban has actually accused the US and Afghan forces of violating the agreement in their operations against them, as well as delaying the release of 5,000 prisoners, which was supposed to occur by March 10. “If such violations [of the agreement] continue, it can create an atmosphere of mistrust, will harm the agreement, and also force the mujahideen to respond which will further escalate the war,” the Taliban expressed in a statement to the Afghan Islamic Press on April 5.

A complete withdrawal certainly increases the threat of violence against the Afghan people…

Not long after, Taliban spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid, publicly rejected a document entitled the “Charter of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Reports began circulating online on April 13 which suggest a charter has been drafted which frames the future governance of Afghanistan. Unsurprisingly, it has been purported to say “an Islamic emirate” will govern Afghanistan, usurping laws and rights (granted by the Afghan Constitution) contravene Islamic values. This would reflect no change in the Taliban’s outlook on Afghan law and society, providing they have not changed their views since their former regime. Thus, there will be no regard for the democratic values of free speech, human rights, or civil rights. A strict interpretation of Islamic law is the looming goal of the Taliban.

As expected, several ‘enemies’ of the Taliban and the ‘puppets’ and ‘minions’ of the Afghan forces and Kabul administration workers have surrendered to and continue to surrender to the mujahideen since the acknowledgment of the purported peace deal. As check posts are persistently under assault, some are being abandoned by security forces. And numerous personnel consisting of army, police and local militia have also joined the Taliban. And in blatant disregard for the common threat of the corona virus pandemic, the Taliban initially rejected calls for a cease-fire in Afghanistan during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan (April 23 to May 23). However, the organization subsequently announced a three-day break in violence against the Afghan government near the end of the month. Rewarding the Taliban’s feeble effort, President Ghani continues tore lease hundreds of Taliban prisoners in a drastically uneven exchange for Afghan security forces and other personnel.

The deadliest attack in April occurred in Badghis Province resulting in the death of 88 Afghan forces and 13 local police officers and the capture of eight prisoners…

Moving forward with a clear path to victory for the Taliban, the withdrawal of US and foreign forces from Afghanistan over the next several months, intra-Afghan political factions will have the lofty task of trying to make sense of the terms of the agreement and maintain peace in the region without the support of the United States and allies or, as it appears, the full support of its own forces and government administration. A careful reading of the agreement quickly points — perhaps more appropriately — to the terms of a withdrawal agreement, while throwing countless numbers of Afghans to the wolves.

According to the March 2020 Congressional Research Service report entitled Afghanistan: Background and US Policy in Brief (CRS Report R45122), “US officials generally say that the Taliban do not pose an existential threat to the Afghan government, given the current military balance.” However, a complete withdrawal certainly increases the threat of violence against the Afghani people. On the brink of heightened changes to their current way of life, will another Afghan civil war follow? After all, neither ceasefire nor a RiV can be found in the public terms of the agreement on behalf of the Taliban. Instead, “a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire will be an item on the agenda of the intra-Afghan dialogue and negotiations.” The Taliban does not recognize the Afghan government as a legitimate government. And as it stands, the Taliban refuses to talk to the 21-member Afghan government negotiating team named near the end of March 2020. Neither a ceasefire nor a RiV has occurred, to date. CRS Report R45122 also indicates that 30-40 Afghan National Defence and Security Forces (ANDSF) have been killed each day in recent months.

According to the New York Times’ Afghan War Casualty Report, no less than 253 Afghan forces and 91 civilians were killed in Afghanistan in the month of March — the month following the so-called peace agreement. At least 350 Afghan forces and 66 civilians were killed in the month of April. And at the time of publication, 285 Afghan forces and 155 civilians were reportedly killed in May. The single deadliest attack in March occurred in Takhar Province, resulting in the deaths of 75 Afghan forces and 12 civilians, while the deadliest attack in April occurred in Badghis Province, resulting in the deaths of 88 Afghan forces and 13 local police officers, and the capture of eight prisoners. A Taliban Red Unit, also known as the Red Group or the Blood Unit, was responsible for the deadliest attack in March. The unit is recognized as the Taliban’s special operations unit. Having recently re-emerged on social media, the unit is clearly training to continue its bloody assaults on Afghan districts, as well as military bases and outposts. In May, multiple deadly attacks throughout the month continued to take the heaviest toll on security forces and police officers.

The US still finds itself asking the Taliban to play according to a set of rules it obviously has no intention of honouring…

“Martyrdom operations” remain some of the vilest forms of attack to be conducted by terrorist organizations. On June 1, a video uploaded to the Taliban’s official website, Voice of Jihad, Taliban suicide bombers at a graduation ceremony at the Al Fateh Military Camp were lauded by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the “Political Deputy of the Islamic Emirate and head of the Political Office,” and deputy emirs Sirajuddin Haqqani and Mullah Mohammad Yaqoub.

The Taliban have said that their attacks on Afghan forces do not violate the withdrawal agreement. In addition, the Taliban’s online platform, Nawai Afghan Jihad (the Voice of Afghan Jihad), publicly boasts their “armed operations [are] ordinary or normal jihadi activity.” While Taliban violence surges against the Afghan people and heavy casualties continue to be inflicted since the confirmation of the ‘peace’ deal, the US-led NATO task force in Afghanistan unconscionably stopped reporting numerical data about the attacks at the start of May 2020.If the number and severity of Taliban attacks is not reported and cannot be abated, the existing Afghan government will soon succumb to the IEA.

The prophetic development of a “fatal flaw”

One year ago, in the 92-page June 2019 document entitled Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan, it was reported to the U.S. Congress that “the United States has a single vital national interest in Afghanistan: to prevent it from becoming a safe-haven from which terrorist groups can plan and execute attacks against the U.S. homeland, U.S. citizens, and our interests and allies abroad.” The estimated cost of the report for the U.S. Department of Defense was approximately $304,528 for the Fiscal Year 2019, including $17,000 in expenses and $304,511 in labor. Twelve months later, the U.S. still finds itself asking the Taliban to play according to a set of rules it obviously has no intention of honoring.

Part two of the agreement pledges, “…the Taliban will take [a number of] steps to prevent any group or individual, including [AQ], from using the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United States and its allies.” The Taliban facetiously becomes America’s latest asset to its counterterrorism mission in Afghanistan, as it supposedly commits to security measures it has no intention to uphold. This is the same Taliban which refused to turn over bin Laden and oust AQ 20 years ago, while at the same time has consistently helped their persistence to re-establish the IEA. While Taliban has resumed an unceasing number of attacks in Afghanistan, not a single effort to stamp out AQ nor any of its affiliates has been made. In fact, as the aforementioned U.N. report (S/2020/415) points out, “the Taliban regularly consulted with [AQ] during negotiations with the United States and offered guarantees that it would honour their historical ties.”

AQS is one of the largest coalitions to operate not only in Afghanistan, but also in Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Myanmar…

What is more, in the previously published Jul-Sep 2019 Indian Defence Review article entitled Unveiling the ISI-Terrorist Nexus, Philip B Haney and JM Phelps accurately predicted the “fatal flaw” in US-Afghan negotiations. The authors correctly identified a coalition of at least 14 organizations that have been operating globally for over two decades. Half of these are Deobandi groups, including the Afghan Taliban itself. And the Taliban — one of the seven Deob and groups to pledge loyalty to the 1998 World Islamic Front fatwa — is now expected to guarantee that Afghanistan does not become a haven for terrorists planning to use Afghanistan soil to threaten the security of the U.S. and its allies?

Government officials and national security strategists have failed to pinpoint the reach and scope of such coalitions — which have no intention of extinguishing threats and violence against the security forces of the Afghan government, the US, or its allies. In a previous, revealing example, Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced on social media in September 2019 that an operation against the Taliban had taken place in the city of Ghazni. “Two of the terrorists’ bases were demolished along with 120 barrels full of explosive materials, around 2,000 kilograms of primary explosive substances…” It was reported by the MoD that AQ in the ‘Indian’ Subcontinent (AQS) “were to use the materials to prepare explosives for attacks in the Capital and major cities across Afghanistan”— which confirms their intentions of violence and destruction.

AQS is one of the largest coalitions to operate not only in Afghanistan, but also Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. In 2017, the AQS Code of Conduct (CoC), a 20-page sharia-based document (written in English), plainly states the organization’s intentions for the world to see. Helping fulfill one of its objectives for “fighting in Afghanistan for the defense of the Islamic Emirate,” The AQ-affiliated terrorist organization provides key operational support to the Taliban by increasing their capability for terror activity against the Afghan government. According to its own Code of Conduct, AQS considers it a fardh (religious obligation) “to wage jihad in the path of Allah,” identifying one of their major objectives to be “strengthening the Islamic Emirate of Afghani-stan, defending it, and bringing stability to it.” To fulfill this objective, the AQ-linked terrorist group “engages the enemies of the Islamic Emirate outside Afghanistan” and also participates in “fighting shoulder-to-shoulder with the mujahideen of the emirate.” Confirmed in the CoC, “the Indian state is [their] top priority, after American and Israeli targets.” In light of the agreement, these objectives beg an important question: has the US actually turned a blind eye to the fact Afghanistan soil will certainly continue — in plain sight — to be used to threaten the security of the United States and its allies around the globe, particularly India and Israel?

…whether US troops are present in the region or not, the Taliban will triumph in the end

In March 2020, AQS devoted the month’s issue of the Voice of Afghan Jihad to the Taliban’s ‘victory’ over the US, then placed India directly in the cross hairs. On the heels of featuring an article entitled Kashmir is the gateway for War against India: Kandjar (Afghanistan) to Doda (Kashmir), The season of Hopes, the online publication claims to be renaming future issues Nawai Ghazwa-e-Hind, promoting a bold shift in its violent campaign to India, specifically Kashmir. One of the reasons India remains an important concern to the Islamic terror group is because, like the United States endeavored to be in Afghanistan, “the Indian state is the fundamental obstacle in the formation of an Islamic India.”

Government officials and national security strategists should be compelled to develop a better strategy — one that would force the Taliban to disavow not only AQ, AQS, the Haqqani Network (supported by Pakistan’s security services), and the conglomerate of Deobandi-linked terrorist organizations emerging from the East. These groups are blending themselves together all across South Asia and beyond. By the terms of the agreement, whether US troops are present in the region or not, the Taliban will triumph in the end — as avowed experts around the world fail to recognize the “fatal flaw” in their Afghan policy and ignore the explicit warnings from the organizations and coalitions involved — those fighting shoulder-to-shoulder with the Taliban.

Unabated and as deadly as ever

In March 2020, a London-based report released by Jane’s Terrorism & Insurgency Centre confirmed that, while the Islamic State continues to be a substantial threat, the Taliban has overtaken the notorious group as the world’s deadliest terrorist organization. There are an estimated 60,000 Taliban fighters in Afghanistan today. As attacks continue to occur and alliances remain undeterred in Afghanistan, it is naïve, irresponsible, and incredibly dangerous to believe the US and Taliban have entered into a ‘peace’ deal with the world’s deadliest.

Like every other Islamic terrorist group around the world, they yearn to establish a global caliphate — whether it be today, tomorrow, or the decades to come. Their long-term goal must be thwarted, not enabled by the peace-loving countries of the world. With each failed effort to maintain especially those efforts removing the US and other allies from where their presence helped maintain stability, it becomes increasingly easier for terrorist organizations to believe that the way to successfully advance their interests is not through the ballot box but through terrorism and astrict implementation of Islamic law. For the time being, the Afghan government will have to fend for themselves. Capitulation to terrorists has consequences.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Terry Bishop

specializes in a variety of topics related to the strategic influence of terrorism and subversion, counter-terrorism and national security. His many fields of interest and research include armed conflict and violence in South Asia with a specific focus on al-Qaeda in the [Indian] Subcontinent (AQS), the Taliban, and other Deobandi-linked terror groups. Follow him on Twitter @TerryBishopSR.

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