The Pakistan-sponsored fidayeen attack on an army camp in Uri on September 18, that resulted in the martyrdom of 17 soldiers, is the worst since 2002. Though all four fidayeenwere killed, that is cold comfort for an army at the receiving end.
Such large-scale casualties must not go unpunished.
The Pakistan army believes that the balance of terror must be in its favour, especially when the balance of power is not.
Clearly, India’s carefully calibrated strategy to fight Pakistan’s proxies within its own borders and on its own side of the LoC, in order to keep the level and the intensity of conflict low and maintain a stable environment for rapid economic growth, has not yielded the desired dividends.
The increasing attempts at infiltration across the LoC and the spurt in encounters with terrorists in the Kashmir valley recently show that Pakistan’s proxy war against India is continuing unabated.
In order to reduce casualties and damage to property, India’s response needs to be reviewed and upgraded to a more pro-active one that raises Pakistan’s cost for waging a proxy war.
Despite facing seemingly insurmountable internal security challenges, the Pakistan army and the ISI — together constituting the ‘Deep State’ — have been engaged in a low-intensity limited war against India for almost three decades.
The Pakistan army believes that the balance of terror must be in its favour, especially when the balance of power is not.
Pakistan’s Deep State continues to sponsor terrorist attacks not only in India but also against Indian assets in Afghanistan through extremist organisations like the Lashkar-e-Tayiba and the Jaish-e-Mohamed.
The army and the IAF should ‘hit to hurt’ the Pakistan army on the LoC where it is deployed in large numbers and can be easily reached.
Incidents like the terrorist strike at the Pathankot air base in January 2016 and Pakistan’s proclivity to remain in denial even though hard evidence of the involvement of organs of the State is given to it, are exhausting Indian patience.
For the Pakistan army it is a low-cost, high-payoff option to keep several divisions of the Indian Army and a large number of personnel of the central armed police forces embroiled in conflict.
For India the opportunity costs have been prohibitively high in terms of the strain on the defence budget and slowing down of the rate of economic growth.
India should pursue a four-pronged strategy to gradually force Pakistan to stop waging a proxy war against India.
Firstly, the Pakistan army must be made to pay for sending LeT, JeM and Hizbul Mujahideen terrorists to strike army and civilian targets in India.
The army and the IAF should ‘hit to hurt’ the Pakistan army on the LoC where it is deployed in large numbers and can be easily reached.
For every act of terrorism on Indian territory for which there is credible evidence pointing to the involvement of the Pakistan army and the ISI, carefully calibrated military strikes must be launched against the Pakistan army.
Every Pakistan post through which infiltration takes place should be reduced to rubble by artillery fire.
These should include artillery strikes with guns firing in the ‘pistol gun’ mode to destroy bunkers on forward posts with minimum collateral damage; stand-off PGM strikes on brigade and battalion HQ, communications centres, logistics infrastructure, ammunition dumps and key bridges; and raids by Special Forces and border action teams.
Every Pakistan post through which infiltration takes place should be reduced to rubble by artillery fire.
Secondly, as Pakistan continues to drag its feet in bringing to justice the leaders of terrorist organisations against whom hard evidence has been provided by India, covert operations should be launched to bring them to justice.
These should be based on hard core ‘actionable’ intelligence and should be sanctioned at appropriate levels.
Covert operations are certainly a game that two can play, but the Deep State leaves India with few other options.
In any case, Pakistan’s ISI has been conducting covert operations in India for long. Since Pakistan is not inclined to bring to justice the leaders of terrorist organisations like the LeT and the JeM, terrorists whom they call ‘strategic assets’, they must be neutralised through covert operations.
India’s growing diplomatic clout must be harnessed to influence the outcome by isolating the Pakistan army internationally as a rogue army for the acts of terrorism that it perpetuates along with the ISI.
Thirdly, India should continue to engage the elected civilian leadership of Pakistan with a view to resolving the seemingly intractable disputes between the two countries and reducing the salience of the Pakistan army in the country’s polity.
India should also engage members of Pakistan’s civil society and senior veterans of its armed forces who are amenable to seeing reason as they wield considerable influence with the generals in command.
Efforts to further liberalise the visa regime, encourage people-to-people contacts and enhance trade should continue.
Finally, along with overt military measures and covert operations, India’s growing diplomatic clout must be harnessed to influence the outcome by isolating the Pakistan army internationally as a rogue army for the acts of terrorism that it perpetuates along with the ISI.
The international community that is already tiring of Pakistan’s shenanigans in Afghanistan will not need too much convincing to accept that the time has come to stop mollycoddling the Pakistan army on the grounds that it must be supported in order to ensure that its nuclear weapons do not fall into jihadi hands.
Instead of wining and dining the military leadership, the international community must censure the Pakistan army in the strictest possible terms and ensure that it stops attempting to destabilise its neighbours.
India should lobby extensively with the US political leadership and the members of the US Congress to apprise them of the fact that continuing US support for the Pakistan army is hurting the growing India-US strategic partnership.
Failing satisfactory progress, the United Nations Security Council should be approached to approve an embargo on the sale of arms, ammunition and military equipment to Pakistan.
If the UNSC resolution is vetoed by China, as it well might be, India should use its buyers’ clout in the military industrial complex to ensure that arms manufacturers that supply weapons and defence equipment to Pakistan stop doing so.
India should lobby extensively with the US political leadership and the members of the US Congress to apprise them of the fact that continuing US support for the Pakistan army is hurting the growing India-US strategic partnership.
US military aid strengthens the Pakistan army and gives it greater confidence to destabilise its neighbourhood with impunity.
This four-pronged strategy should succeed in bringing Pakistan’s proxy war to an end in one to two years.
If it does not, it would be time to raise the ante and consider tougher measures such as the abrogation of the Indus Waters Treaty, as has been recommended by some analysts. However, such a drastic step may not be necessary.
This article was originally published on www.rediff.com and has been republished here with permission.
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1. Pakistan Army is in the Full Alert state and I hear thru social media that the leave of many officers cancelled.
2. Choosing a Timing and Method are critical for attack and aggression. How can Indian Army attack when the enemy is fully prepared and waiting.
3. On the other hand, the intelligence of the enemies seems strong which finds chinks in Indian Army and attacks at weak locations/ non-alert stations with impunity. India does not seem to have an intelligence apparatus to do similar activity.
4. Enemy is indulging in guerilla warfare, making 100 strikes of Sunar and being ready for One Lohar strike of India. Indian Political leadership does not even involve the Chief of Armed forces in consultations – how can they become Lohar even for a day.
5. BSF and Army is a duplication of efforts. What is required is a CounterInsurgency/ CounterTerrorism force with TechInt and HumInt support and backed up by Indian Armed forces when the timing and methods are in sync for an attack.
6. India has been waiting for a perfect moment to strike. This stage is to take management decisions with limited FACTS and under uncertainty with very few scenarios not hundreds which every tom, dick and harry comes out with and let the best men – The Armed Forces Generals, Air Marshalls and Admirals take the best decision suited for the moment. The Politicians and Diplomats must be supportive not decision makers – NOT even Influencers to the decision making process as it takes away the element of surprise.
I feel very ashamed why indian media says “… ISI, Pakistani backed terrorists attacked India, please understand and only say that Pakistan attacked India abd now india reserves the right to hit back Pakistan ”
In 1971 we disintegrated Pakistan 50/50 and now Pakistan half is challenging India, India must use Baluchistan card, chop Pakistan only treatment of Indian chronic disease. India is 4 time double from Pakistan in military power. Pakistan internal war gives an immense favour to india, Indian political leadership must be knocked out
This is how some Pakistani Politicians are fighting each other.
I hope you will accept the truth and I am assure you are coward and terrified to write articles in favour of Pakistan and Baloch people.
It was 1971 early months when East Pakistani people majority was rejected and they were not allowed to form govt and run Pakistan because they were 3rd class citizens and have no right to run Punjabi state. When military operation was commenced in different code names to kill and delete ruthlessly Bengali people then same time Pakistani print media and Pakistani cruel political and military leadership was saying “All is going well… there is no rebellion and just few miscreants and all shall be deleted and knocked out etc etc….”
You know enemy always waits for spotting and cuts or wound so that that enemy may make good use of that wound, putting salts and chilly to further damage the wound to rebellion and rebellion leads to disintegration India made good use of the Bengali killing and after 7 months of war preparation liberated Bangladesh within 13 days of wars even USA and China were in our favours and they somehow supported Pakistan. Then we blamed India for disintegration.
Since 1971, India was again desperately looking for another chance to break Pakistan and repeat 1971 in which they won a decisive victory against Pakistan but they were always failed by grace of Allah. They struggled very hard to find out weak point in Pakistan but always failed.
Unfortunately Baluchistan was neglected and looted in all angles whether its education, health and providing jobs to Baluch youths. And that is a fact even your military and Head of states have been accepting. In short I says everybody know how they mineral resource in Sui, Loti, Uch & Pir koh gas field, Coal mines of Maah, Gold mines of Reko Diq & Saindak Copper-Gold Mine Chaghi In all these mineral fields, Baluch populations were neglected, considering them 3rd class citizen they way Pakistan treated with Benga
Now again India raised up for Baluchistan and snatching back Pakistani part of Kashmir and now let’s see how India succeeds whether like Bangladesh frees Baluchistan or giving up like Pakistan on Kashmir.
• Some Pakistani are pleased with USA state dept statement that USA is not willing for free Baluchistan but they must understand that USA and china were also against Liberation and independence of Bangladesh as well, did they stopped India for liberating Bangladesh……………………….?
• USA also does not announce independence of Kurdistan in Iraq but how much USA supports kurds we all know……
• Does Taliban have the strength or power to protest in USA to protest, but Baloch mobs daily protest at Washington and USA congressmen meet them daily, assuring full support.
• If USA does not support Baloch independence that why USA denied to enlist Baloch Liberation Army BLA in its lists of terrorist organization. I don’t see any Taliban commanders living in Europe but BLA heads living in Europe, USA, Canada and Russia freely interviewing in Indian TV.
• USA stopped Pakistan military funds and fighter jets moreover, feeling Pakistan enemy in due to its dual role in war on terror and USA congress harshly share their discussion on Pakistan good Taliban and bad Taliban policy, ISI nexus with deadly terrorist.
• Low Oil prices and Yemen war does not allow defeated Saudi and UAE to showers dollars on Pakistani Military
• Pakistani backed Taliban destroyed Afghanistan and Iran are still considered best friends of Pakistan by some Pakistani politicians.
Mr. Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw has to take 7 months to build, train and weaponized Bengali Mukti Bani guerrilla fighters to aside with India during military intervention in 1971 war but here india must know that BLA, BRA and BLF Baloch military wings are already well trained to support India to make best use of their Baloch card.
Moreover, Indian R&AW has already wonover hearts of TTP who are victims of Pakistani military operation Ze
Pakistan has been waging war against india since 1971 and bleeds Kashmir, and even could not gain Kashmir.
Sam Manekeshwa liberated Bangladesh within 7 months in preparation of making Bengali guerrilla fighters, but now Baloch guerrilla already well trained ready to welcome indian raids to crush Pakistan.
I dont know why indian media keep shouting ” Jaish Mhd attached Indian soil….” Please understand that Pakistan army attacked India and Indian Politicians are busy in scoring. All terrorists camps are existing inside Pakistani military cantts in POK and PO Baluchistan. India should raid Karachi, sindh and Punjab major cities Balochi military forces are ready to fight along Indian soldiers.
USA even also did not support india in 1971 war and was against Bangledsh freedom and what USA could do in Pak favour. Pakistan is very weak, Afghanistan, iran have bitter relations with Pak, Saudi is suffering in Yemen war while low oil price plunged Saudi. USA already stopped Pakistani 800 billion Dollars, TTP and BLA ready to side india but Indian politicians are cowards.
I dont know why indian media keep shouting ” Jaish Mhd attached Indian soil….” Please understand that Pakistan army attacked India and Indian Politicians are busy in scoring. All terrorists camps are existing inside Pakistani military cantts in POK and PO Baluchistan. India should raid Karachi, sindh and Punjab major cities Balochi military forces are ready to fight along Indian soldiirs
Quite balanced and realistic article.