Geopolitics

The time to trust Pakistan is long gone
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 06 Aug , 2013

After the ceasefire in Kashmir at 2359 hours on the night of 1-2 January 1949, Pakistan violated that ceasefire in 1965.  Yet, the Tashkent declaration of 10 January 1966 vowed to restore peaceful relations between the two countries and observe the ceasefire conditions of January 1949, but yet Yahya Khan pushed that declaration aside by strafing Indian airfields on Dec 3, 1971.  Once again the Shimla Agreement of 2 July 1972 explicitly declared in its Article (vi) of the first step of bullets

“[T]hat in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, they will refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of each other.”

…now, Nawaz Sharif hopes to perpetuate the cloak-in-dagger game and diplomacy, and continue to make a sucker of India once again.  His feigns of credibility and genuineness are not believable.

And, more specifically, Article (ii) of the third step of bullets stated that

“[I]n Jammu and Kashmir, the line of control resulting from the ceasefire of December 17, 1971, shall be respected by both sides without prejudice to the recognized position of either side. Neither side shall seek to alter it unilaterally, irrespective of mutual differences and legal interpretations. Both sides further undertake to refrain from the threat or the use of force in violation of this line.”

And yet, Pervez Musharraf sought to alter the line of control in J&K in 1999 in a bitter war.  That war remained limited only due to US influence on weak Indian leaders already buckling under sanctions.  By now, a strong and resolute Indian leader would have eaten Pakistan four times over.

India is tired of being suckered time and time again, hearing and bearing numerous insults repeatedly.  Notwithstanding the sentiments of India’s Muslims, who are India’s own, India is tired of Pakistan, and this is reflected in the sentiments of the Indian public, the military officers of India, and the commentaries on the subject in think tanks.  Pakistan can be trusted no more.  This distrust is of Pakistan’s own making, evidenced by them violating agreements repeatedly, and by sponsoring aggression against India without let, decade after decade.

And now, Nawaz Sharif hopes to perpetuate the cloak-in-dagger game and diplomacy, and continue to make a sucker of India once again.  His feigns of credibility and genuineness are not believable.

But in India, there is no shortage of brilliant fools, especially at top leadership levels, many of who have never held a gun, though no matter how educated, such that they are decidedly taken for a ride very predictably by smooth-talking enemies.

However, making peace with India is not all hunky-dory for Nawaz Sharif.  In a recent meeting, Gen Kayani pulled up Nawaz Sharif and asked him to go slow on talking of peace.   This serves India quite well, actually, which will actually have the benefit of saving immense time in media hype and wasted energy in negotiations that once again will go nowhere.  Not many Pakistanis want peace, anyway, being motivated by visions of a renewed Mughal durbar in India.  And, Kayani wants to perpetuate the legitimacy of the army in Pakistan’s affairs by appearing to sound tough on India.  In fact, Nawaz Sharif will find it difficult to do anything without the blessings of Kayani.  And the once bitten-twice shy Sharif will be cautious in dealing with Kayani, because it further remains to be seen whether Kayani will retire peacefully on 27 November 2013, whether he will want another extension, or whether he will seize power from Sharif.  In Pakistan, anything is possible; instability has shown itself to be visible in the genes of Pakistan.  What’s further, even the West doesn’t seem to fully comprehend that nature of instability, given their prevailing policies with relation to Pakistan, and engrossed in its own great game for world domination.

…it is amazing how short a memory the Indian leaders have, in that they jump in hope each time Pakistan offers an olive branch.

It is wrong to think that if Sharif’s parents hailed from Amritsar that he will be kind to India.  Musharraf was born in Daryaganj in Delhi, and look how he dealt with India and Kargil.  The cricket diplomacy he fostered in 2005 was an eyewash, coming as it was on the heels of the LeT attack on India’s Parliament in 2001 that Musharraf secretly endorsed.  The cricket diplomacy did not stop the 2008 Mumbai attack of 26/11, which was further proof that Pakistan will not cease in its anti-India activities though it will talk sweet to India as again evidenced in the second round of cricket diplomacy between Yusuf Gilani and Manmohan Singh in 2011.

It is further astounding of the enormous instances in history where Islamic armies have sworn on the Quran to not attack or take any particular action, and yet violated their word.  In plain historical light is the time during the siege of Anandpur Sahib in December 1705 when the Mughal emperor Aurangzeb himself swore on the Quran not to attack Guru Gobind Singh if he left Anandpur Sahib, and give him safe passage, as well, only to pursue the Guru with his armies thereafter[3].

However, it is amazing how short a memory the Indian leaders have, in that they jump in hope each time Pakistan offers an olive branch.  The actions of leaders must be informed by the vast decades and centuries of behavior, but that is definitely not so in India.  In contrast, the Pakistani leadership keeps a long view of the day their Islamic armies will stomp over India.

In addition, the Pakistani populace finds it difficult to be friends with Indians.  An apparently respectable Pakistani I met recently, who practices as a medical doctor, was most vehement and strongly emotional in his belief that Pakistani Muslims and Indian Hindus cannot live together.  His body was observed to shake with felt anger when he spoke those words, notwithstanding that he was an educated person of the Pakistani polity.  This is a reaction that has been affirmed repeatedly in other personal encounters.  If such is the orientation and frame of mind of its educated elite, what can we expect from the madrasas and unemployed Pakistani?[4]

Pakistan has harassed India for much too long, affected its economic rise, and India now stands provoked.  There is no peace with Pakistan unless Pakistan is fully finished.

The stars, events, and tea leaves are telling the same thing over and over again: the destiny of Pakistan vis-à-vis India will be decided on the battle field, once and for all, sooner or later.  No conversing or negotiating or peace overtures will ever be successful between India and Pakistan, even if mediated by the USA.  Reconciliation is much too difficult, but likely that it is genetically incompatible.  India and Pakistan are both preparing for a war – one to vent their hatred against Indians – and the other to restore its honor for a thousand years of oppression.  The real balance of power in the region, and complete stability, will only materialize once the battlefield outcome is clear.

If India does not realize it, let India also wake up: the destiny of India vis-à-vis Pakistan will necessarily be decided on the spatial battle field, once and for all, across the entire border, in a full-scale war.  The sooner the Indian establishment realizes this, the better it is for India.  Thus, the time for India to sleep is also long gone.  But while it might be good for Pakistan if it let India sleep, Pakistan itself keeps ringing the alarm for India to wake up.

India may not want war, but war will be thrust on India.  To take advantage of the next big military event, India must therefore be the first to attack Pakistan this time with a very severe and sudden blow, notwithstanding its current soft policies.  There is now a moral justness in this.  And, in fact, there is moral depravity in not fighting to crush evil when you should.  Lord Krishna’s sermon to Arjun was all about taking up arms when the call to duty arrives to fight evil.  India will be fighting not for conquest or pleasure, but for peace, honor, and survival.  Pakistan has harassed India for much too long, affected its economic rise, and India now stands provoked.  There is no peace with Pakistan unless Pakistan is fully finished.  Sharif’s “peace” talk is just that – plain talk – and talk is cheap.  History shows that Pakistan’s assurances and words cannot be taken seriously, and thus not be given any admission.  The real peace on the sub-continent will come only when Pakistan’s teeth are pulled and its tentacles to terrorist outfits are cut.  Regrettably, there is no peace till so long as Pakistan is a sovereign nation, and let no one in any country – including USA — be in any doubt about that.



[1] A term given to irregular militia that was formalized, armed, and aided during Ayub Khan’s regime.

[2] Of course, Pakistan ran with the initial missile technology it gained while N Korea moved on as a laggard.

[3] In full fairness, it should also be mentioned that it was a Hindu hill raja, Ajmer Chand, who cut off the spring that allowed water to flow to Anandpur fort.

[4] There is no doubt that some Pakistani individuals are genuinely friendly towards Indians; but those who would not even talk properly to Indians are much too many.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Dr Amarjit Singh

is an independent security analyst.

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8 thoughts on “The time to trust Pakistan is long gone

  1. Pakistan–formed out of division , lost part of division east pak ,92000 soldiers with arms & ammo surrendered as pows,hung their PM, mostly under marshall law OR ruled by military janta, elected PMs shot dead /hung, parliament never worked with independence, judiciary/executive/legislature were alwaya at logger heads,aided by Saudi /usa/china,nuclear tech smuggled, fertile 2 states to feed the remaining nation,housing internationally wanted Dawood/hafeez/osama & many with best terrorists groups in the world WITH A Foreign policy –to bleed ,
    destabilise ,divide, destroy INDIA thus fought wars & encouraged /participated /provided funds arms ammo for terrorists/insurgency/smuggled narcitics agaist us—-Tell some thing , do some thing
    India—-Pak knows what they r doing , play the same coin ,with firm grip on participants, do not discuss on tv because its infuence on youth ,open commercial centers exclusively for Pak commerce /business men with firm controll , improve RAW/IB/CBI operational capability , instead fighting wars finance few terrorists groups to operate in pak for us in view of finances, particip-
    -ate in their education/public health /infrastructure programmes either direct or internationally funded programmes for our needs, encourge aam admi on both sides to do commerce & establish family relations , inflict more damge whenever /wherever /however possible for them to bleed militarily as they to do us because that is the only language that they understand well , isolate internationally as much as we can , bleed them as much as we can , blow hot & cold on their progress in every front as the case may be to obstruct/frustrate /nustralise their progress in a clandestine way, use modern techas much as we can to think well
    before they leap , involve in as many open debatesas possible to read their minds as well as possible , we can not change them but we can delay them , if so we win ,

    war –no use , what we gained –nil Diterence Shia/Sunni Exploit

  2. Though in a functional or lopsidedly functional democracy all are free to express their views,yet on issues of grave concern ; and yes national security related issues come in its ambit, one must exercise due diligence . Dr Amarjit Singh’s analysis of the issue, namely trustworthiness of Pakistan, despite some factual inaccuracies hits the bull’s eye! The doves recommending wait & watch, being overtly concerned about Pakistan’s internal compulsions; need to appreciate the dynamics of national interests and more specifically, threats to Vital National Interests.
    But how can they, when even the wisest among us will not agree on what constitutes our Vital National Interests!!

  3. Merely because the article reads logical doesn’t make it rational or factual. For one, Pakistan did not come into being because of its hatred towards India. One needs to know the dynamics of the time to understand the division of the sub-continent along communal lines.

    Pakistan is presently dysfunctional and struggling for its economic and political survival. Could it not be this necessity that compels it’s leaders to seek peace with the threats it sees on the horizon?

    Their objectives are not mutually exclusive and must be given a chance to succeed. India can feed the wave of pseudo nationalism in some other way.

  4. To see Dr Amarjits heartfelt speech makes one feel that there is still hope for this nation, as versus the spineless Digvijays and Manmohans who have always been appeasing terrrorism for the sake of personal glory.

  5. I really admire your article which calls a spade a spade. I suspect that the Indian army knows this as well. It is the will to fight among the polity that is lacking.

    This feud will decided on the battlefield whether we like it or not. With a nation that has so hatred for India, I fear nuclear war is likely. India had better prepare for it.

  6. I totally agree. Every time we trusted, we were betrayed. The involvement of a third nation can’t be denied and they are too clever to play a fox during such situation. The main question lies……how long will this go? do our children will have to face the same situation as we do!! How long???

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