Indian Defence Review

Possible Reforms

Coming back to the reforms, what are the possible improvements (apart from eradicating corruption) that the PLA can take up? In an interview to the Beijing Morning News, Li Daguang, a military expert at National Defense University said that China should reduce the proportion of its ground forces and increase its navy and air force. He suggested that the CMC should establish a separate command headquarters for the respective military entities: “In combat operations, they will be under a joint command based on the direction of combat.”

On November 15, Xinhua reported that China will “optimise the size and structure of the army, adjust and improve the proportion between various troops, and reduce non-combat institutions and personnel”. It added that joint operation command authority under the CMC, and theatre joint operation command system, will be improved. The new leadership promised to accelerate the building of new combat powers, and deepen the reform of military colleges. Further, the systems of defence research and production, and procurement of weaponry, need to be reformed, as quality privately-owned enterprises may be allowed to join the defence industry.

Changes in the nuclear sphere are also on the cards.

In 2012, Radio Free Asia had reported that speaking at a seminar, Major General Zhu Chenghu of China’s National Defense University had announced that China will need to modernise its nuclear arsenal in response to a planned US-backed missile defense system that may have a destabilising effect on strategic stability: “China must modernise its nuclear arsenal…because the deployment of a US missile defense system may reduce the credibility of China’s nuclear deterrence…Otherwise, we will have a tough time maintaining that we have a credible system of nuclear deterrence,” he said.

Another necessary reform, The PLA Daily published a report that highlighted the urgent need for standardisation in the armed forces. The report says that standardisation would multiply the troops’ combat capabilities: “Otherwise, the lack of coordinated standardisation among the army, navy, and air forces could become the ‘Achilles heel’ of the military forces.” For example, during a military exercise, sailors on the four ships were able to hear one another. However, they could not transmit combat data because their information system was not compatible with that of the recipients.

Another: a brigade in the Second Artillery responded to an emergency with more than 300 vehicles and equipment but there were as many as 90 different brands and models. The communications battalion alone had 12 different models of generators. The Brigade Commander complained that if there were a war, they would need to have several truckloads of spare parts. No comment is required.

A More Aggressive Mood

While the Chinese propaganda still continues to affirm: “China is a stabilizer for world peace and security”, facts speak differently. Xinhua says that “the new commission is like a performance guarantee for the stabilizer and will, in turn, bring benefits to the whole world. If China can be safer, the whole world will be safer as well,” but in the past few weeks, Beijing has taken more aggressive postures.

One would have thought that after Third Plenum the new leadership would have began focusing their energies on reforms; but no, they have taken a most controversial and dangerous course, destabilising the region and upsetting neighbours. In India, one remembers the events of April, when the People’s Liberation Army changed the status quo by planting their tents in Depsang Plain of Ladakh.

On November 23, the Chinese Ministry of National Defense issued a statement announcing the establishment of the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), “in accordance with the Law of the People’s Republic of China on National Defense (1997), the Law of the People’s Republic of China on Civil Aviation (1995) and the Basic Rules on Flight of the People’s Republic of China (2001).” Well, not in accordance with friendly relations with neighbours!

The statement then gives the coordinates of “outer limit of China’s territorial sea”, which engulfs the East China Sea and the islands in dispute with Japan. Beijing defined thus an ADIZ: “it is a zone that can extend in some cases up to 300 miles beyond the territorial sea. It’s established by some countries off their coasts for security reasons.”

‘Stability’ was the justification for the creation of the NSC which was supposed to deal with internal as well as external issues, and help Beijing to speak with one voice. Has the latest move, to create ADIZ, been taken with a ‘single voice’? It is impossible to say today, but it is doubtful. The latest move is appears to be an attack on what Washington calls ‘the US pivot’.

An Attack On The US Pivot?

Recently, the Chinese military’s National Defense University, the General Political Security and General Staff Departments, the Chinese Academy of Social Science and the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations jointly released a documentary titled ‘Silent Contest’; though widely circulated from June to October, it was later blocked by the authorities. The film, which is pure anti-American propaganda, asserts that the United States has used five approaches to subvert China: political, cultural, ideological and organisational infiltration and political interference and social penetration.

Washington’s ‘conspiracy’ is said to be at the root of all ‘evil happenings’: social conflicts, officials’ corruption, human rights protests, spread of Christianity and advocacy of a ‘constitutional government’. The fact remains that since the beginning of the ADIZ episode, tension has grown manifold between China and its neighbours and the escalation is going on despite the visit of US Vice-President Joe Biden in the area.

For example, Japan and South Korea have conducted joint naval exercises in an area covered by China’s ADIZ; the objective being to send strong signals to Beijing. At the same time, it increases the stress in the neighbourhood. The joint exercises were carried near Suyan (or Socotra) Rock, a tiny submerged rock which has been the focus of disputes between Beijing and Seoul.

Another incident involved a Chinese naval vessel and a US warship which nearly collided in the South China Sea. A statement by the Chinese Defence Ministry confirmed Washington’s version that a US guided missile cruiser had avoided a collision with a Chinese warship maneuvering nearby. The new situation has greatly increased the risk of an unwanted accident. This shows that the new situation created by China’s unilateral decision to create the ADIZ is fraught with danger.

While the new NSC is supposed to be designed to increase the coordination and the integration between the police, military, intelligence and diplomatic services, it is doubtful if the diplomatic angle had not been taken into consideration in this particular case. Or perhaps the NSC is not functional as yet?

Denial of Reforms

More recently, the official Chinese press has denied the ‘reforms’ heralded a couple of weeks earlier; The Global Times quoting an official statement published on the Ministry of National Defence [MND] website affirms: “Online speculation about a military reorganisation and system adjustments are just rumors. The MND denies rumors of military restructuring.” Usually in China, an official denial means that there is some truth behind the rumors. The Global Times details the denied rumours speaking of: “online speculation over the reforms claimed that a ground force headquarters will be added to the current air force, navy and the second artillery force (missile force).”

Though Xu Qiliang, one of the two Vice Chairmen of the CMC had told The People’s Daily a few days earlier: “The Chinese military will strengthen and enhance the navy, air force and the second artillery force in accordance with the challenges and threats the country is facing,”2 the ‘rebalancing’ of the different services was denied by the State press. Creating an Army headquarters would have however made sense (as the four services would have been at a more equal level).

The second rumour quoted by the Communist Party mouthpiece is even more interesting for India: “The military areas in Xinjiang Uyghur and Tibet autonomous regions will be merged into one force.” In case of a conflict with India, it seems logical for the PLA to have a single Military Area Command (MAC) facing India, instead of having to coordinate the Western Front (Lanzhou MAC) with the Eastern Front (Chengdu MAC), with all the complications and coordination issues implied. One reason for these denials could be that Chairman Xi Jinping is not in full control of all the branches of the PLA as yet.

Conclusion

Delhi needs to definitely be on the alert and follow closely the development on the NSC front as the new body will also be responsible for the Sino-Indian border issue and incidents similar to the Depsang Plain episode in Ladakh in April are bound to occur again and this time, there may be no ‘lack of coordination’ on the Chinese side.