Indian Defence Review

The New Great Game has different contours as the number of players has increased. Its dynamics has two mutually exclusive features – Islamic fundamentalism and the search for energy sources. These forces are moving in two opposite directions – the former from south to north (with a complementary move in the east-west direction) and the latter from north to south. The players also have different goals.

Central Asia Redux

Geographical contiguity, racial and religious affinity and long established trade have provided a strong basis for fraternization amongst the people of Central Asia. In early history it was defined by the Great Silk Road, along which trade was carried out between China and Europe. With development of trade by sea this vast region lost its prominence. With its incorporation into the Soviet Union, it faded into near-oblivion.

The Central Asia region consists of five independent republics, which came into political entities after the break up of the former Soviet Union. Kazakhstan, by far the largest state in terms of territory, (at 2,727, 300 square kilometres, it is larger than Europe) and is politically perhaps the most stable. It is the largest land-locked country in the world, with a population density of less than 6 per square kilometre. It also has the largest economy in Central Asia, with a range of natural resources (including oil and gas), a large agricultural sector and a number of oil and gas pipelines running through the country. It shares a border of over 7,000 kilometres with the Russian Federation.

Uzbekistan, south of Kazakhstan and lying in the centre of the region, has the largest population in Central Asia. It is seeking to develop its mineral and oil resources, but still depends heavily on cotton cultivation and the old Soviet-era centralized command economy. Politically it is one of the most authoritarian regimes in Central Asia, and it is its religious centre.

Turkmenistan, west of Uzbekistan and sharing a border with Iran, is rich in oil and gas. It remains an autocratic state. There are concerns about border security due to the ongoing problems with drug trafficking. Political and economic reform in Turkmenistan has been minimal since independence.

Kyrgyzstan is a mountainous state bordering China. It has some mineral resources (including gold), hydroelectric power and mixed agriculture, but little oil or gas resources.

Tajikistan is the poorest of the Soviet Union successor states. It suffered a five-year civil war almost immediately after independence (1992–1997), has limited mineral resources and is highly indebted. It does have hydroelectric power potential and its border with Afghanistan means it may benefit from development efforts there. Tajikistan has taken credible steps toward reform and all major participants in past fighting are now sharing power in parliament. This includes the only legal Islamic political party in all of Central Asia, which is also represented in President Rahmonov’s government.

While all five states have undergone some economic and political reform since independence, most are still led by former Communist Party or economic figures and power remains resolutely in the hands of a few. Corruption is a problem throughout the region and this is compounded by the illegal narcotics trade: many states lie on transit routes for narcotics from Afghanistan. Energy is a key sector, especially in Kazakhstan.

These countries have long been at the crossroads of world history. So they are again today. Poor and rapidly growing populations, with intra-ethnic or intra-tribal diversities, still lacking in economic opportunity and feeling a sense of injustice are potentially susceptible to the call of violent extremism, particularly when legitimate avenues of dissent are foreclosed. A legacy of authoritarianism, as well as endemic corruption, continue to hamper the development of public institutions, good governance and the rule of law. Terrorism is one such challenge.

The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and other extremist groups, including The Islamic Jihad Group, continue to pose a threat to security and stability. Retrograde regimes in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan hold their peoples back, and detract from regional cooperation and development. Kazakhstan is the best example of the region’s potential economic dynamism, as it moves to take its place among the world’s top energy-producing nations. In Kyrgyzstan, civil society is gradually finding new political space to assemble freely and call for reform.

The ‘New Great Game’ in the region revolves around control over energy resources, economic competition, spread of Islamic radicalism and military posturing. The main players of this game are the US, Russia and China and the peripheral players include Iran, Turkey, Pakistan and India.5

The Energy Paradigm

Central Asia’s importance on the international stage stems primarily from its energy resources. Many of the issues affecting the region are being played out through the energy sector, not least the competition for strategic influence. Perhaps less immediately or globally significant, but of considerable regional importance, is hydroelectric potential. Kyrgyzstan hopes to be able to develop an export-oriented hydroelectric power industry to substitute income from gold production, as its gold reserves are being depleted.

Russia perceives the region in terms of a ‘southern security belt’, the domination of which is imperative for hedging the mainland against all forms of threats. Russia seeks to retain monopoly over the region’s energy resources. China looks at the region as a Eurasian bridge through which trade can be expanded to West Asia and Europe. More significantly, the hydrocarbon reserves of the region are vital for energy starved China. The US and the European Union (EU) interests revolve around diversification of energy supply, promotion of democracy, fight against Islamic radicalism, proliferation security initiatives and counter drug trafficking.

Central Asia has enormous quantities of undeveloped oil resources, including some 6.6 trillion cubic metres of natural gas, waiting to be exploited. The Central Asian countries contain about 4percent of the world’s hydrocarbon reserves. The economies of three major countries are energy export driven (Turkmenistan – 83percent, Kazakhstan – 65 percent and Uzbekistan – 10 percent).6  For Central Asian energy to reach Europe, it has to either transit through Russian territory or through the South Caucasus to Turkey and onwards to European markets. Construction of viable pipeline routes to Europe bypassing Russian territory would effectively break the current Russian monopoly on supply of natural gas to Europe. Routes to the South are the shortest and economically viable but are currently unfeasible due to the unstable situation in Afghanistan. Direct overland routes without passing through a third country are only feasible to Russia and China thus giving them an inherent advantage.

Today, the only existing export routes from the area lead through Russia. Investors in Caspian oil and gas are interested in building alternative pipelines to Turkey and Europe, and especially to the rapidly growing Asian markets. India, Iran, Russia, and Israel, are working on a plan to supply oil and gas to south and Southeast Asia through India but instability in Afghanistan is “posing a great threat to this effort. Afghanistan lies squarely between Turkmenistan, home to the world’s third-largest natural gas reserves, and the lucrative markets of the Indian subcontinent, China and Japan. A memorandum of understanding has been signed to build a 900-mile natural gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan, but the ongoing war and absence of a stable government in Afghanistan have prevented the project from going forward. Today, its geographical position as a potential transit route for oil and natural gas pipelines, makes Afghanistan an extremely important piece of the global strategy by energy magnates to obtain control over energy resources. Controlling the transport route is controlling the product.

Russia remains an important economic partner to all five Central Asian states, and still holds a monopolist or near-monopolist position in the export of Turkmen and Kazakh oil and gas reserves, given its control over the pipeline system that runs through its territory. The EU and the US remain convinced that this threatens the security of these states (and, more importantly, the security of Europe’s gas supply).⁷

The Islamic Radicalism Paradigm

In each of the Central Asian countries a strange and officially imposed dichotomy between “official” and “unofficial” Islam has appeared. Official Islam refers to religious institutions under the control of the state authorities. Unofficial Islam includes all other Muslims, especially those who believe that Islam cannot be controlled by state power. They are accused of being extremists.

The Central Asian countries have been struggling to contain religious extremism since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Islam began flourishing throughout Central Asia in the last years of Soviet rule, due to a relaxation of state management of culture and religion. Uzbekistan, the region’s historic seat of Islamic learning, developed the most vibrant religious life in the region, ranging from a revival of Hanafi teachings (the dominant school of Islamic law in Central Asia) to the spread of more radical (locally termed “Wahhabist”) forms of Islam. The Uzbek government began cracking down on the latter in the mid-1990s, fearing that religious ferment could contribute to the breakdown of secular political institutions (as it was doing in neighbouring Tajikistan during its civil war). While many radical Islamists have fought in Tajikistan and Afghanistan, other groups began to spread their ideology.

Central Asia lacks a tradition of religious fanaticism but the potential of religious extremism spreading to the region is real. The Ferghana Valley, spreading across eastern Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, is a political fulcrum around which much of the region now moves. The most densely populated area in the region – with roughly 25 percent of the population of the region, it is in the throes of ethno-religious tensions. The regimes, mistaking the genuine desire of the people to explore their identity, have taken numerous steps to curb political Islam. It is in this milieu that the most orthodox Wahhabi strain of Islam is gaining acceptability. The main Islamic movements are: