The Impossibility of Ukraine Ceasefire
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 05 Dec , 2022

A recent telephone call from German Chancellor Olof Scholz to Russian President Vladimir Putin has triggered speculation about a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. But Scholz is a messenger boy of the US President Joe Biden as was witnessed by his trip to Beijing to get a first hand ‘feel’ of how Chinese President Xi Jinping’s views about the West and the war in Ukraine. Xi of course is too smart to let anyone know the sinister plans inside his head.

At the joint press conference with visiting French President Emmanuel Macron on December 1, Joe Biden said, “I am prepared to speak with Mr Putin if in fact there is an interest in him deciding he’s looking for a way to end the war. He hasn’t done that yet. If that’s the case, in consultation with my French and my NATO friends, I’ll be happy to sit down with Putin to see what he has in mind. He hasn’t done that yet.” Biden’s statement was facetious because simultaneously the White House stated that “the US believes Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is not ready now for negotiations with the Russian Federation on the situation around Ukraine”. This is nonsense.

The Biden Administration can easily “order” Zelenskyy to negotiate a ceasefire with Russia by simply reducing the quantum of US-NATO supply of arms, equipment, mercenaries, aid and money to Ukraine, as also military training of Ukrainians in the UK and elsewhere in Europe. Besides, Zelenskyy is Washington’s mascot.

But the US does not want the war in Ukraine to end because it wants to weaken Russia militarily and economically, is raking in billions of dollars from the war in Ukraine, holds Europe by the jugular and has ensured longtime employment of NATO. The White House has said that the Biden Administration is negotiating with Congress to allocate an additional $37.7 billion for Ukraine, of which $21 billion will be military assistance.

The strongest signal of an impossibility of ending hostilities in Ukraine is the G7-EU agreement for capping Russian oil at $60 per barrel – a new high in economic terrorism with Zelenskyy crying it is not enough. This US-Backed capping is because the West failed to cut off dependence on Russian oil; Britain too has been importing Russian oil ‘indirectly’. Capping is actually needed in the wars the US and NATO continue to wage globally for the past several decades. A study is also needed to determine the amount of carbon emissions these wars have caused and how much the global environment has been degraded.  

Biden’s only concern appears to be that the Republicans are now controlling the House of Representatives and  European officials are realizing that America is taking them for a ride with their economic hit that may force their industries to close or shift to the US.  Biden’s National Security Council spokesman says, “The rise in gas prices in Europe is caused by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Putin’s energy war against Europe”; a fit example of the pot calling the kettle black. 

Dutch Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher has said, “The Inflation Reduction Act is very worrying. The potential impact on the European economy is very big.” Public in Europe is not pleased with the high price of American gas and inflation. The US is profiting billions using Ukraine as its proxy to fight Russia but Europe needs to acknowledge that its economy and public good are more important than the US winning its war on Russia.

America has manufactured the bogus threat of possible invasion to keep Europe under its control. The ironic part is that European leaders prefer to cling to power over public good, hoping they can limit public anger from bursting. As the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel had no compunctions to open her country to Syrian refugees to gain an additional term in office. But Germany continues to experience a spurt in crimes since then. Without doubt, Biden’s green subsidies and taxes have unfairly tilted  trade away from the EU, threatening to destroy European industries. But Macron only raised a feeble voice against US subsidies during his recent visit to Washington.

Happiest in the world is America’s “deep state”, which perhaps for the first time has found a POTUS whose dementia appears to have increased with China pumping more Fentanyl into the US; albeit it does provide moments of humour. Biden’s latest gaffe includes asking Britain’s Prince William “Where’s your coat?” when meeting him briefly at the John F Kennedy Presidential Library and after their two-minute conversation head in one direction, only to be told by the security this is not where he is to go. At the White House, Biden did not let go of Macron’s hand for more than 30 seconds when greeting him. “Macron didn’t know what to do. Was it an Irish power hold, a kiss of death?” commented the host on Fox News.

Apparently, the war in Ukraine is destined to rage on. Even if there is a possibility of any talks on a ceasefire, the US would demand a ceasefire without lifting any sanctions, which will not be acceptable to Russia. That is how the Biden Administration has brought the Iran Nuclear Deal to a dead end also, while wanting Israel to attack Iran. At the same time, morality has never been a problem for the US. It has agreed to allow Chevron to resume pumping of oil in Venezuela (sanctioned for terrorism by the US), allowing the country to enter the international oil market; an attempt to reduce global oil prices.  

The only possibility of de-escalation in the Ukraine war appears to be if France refuses to toe the US line. Germany led by neo-Nazi Scholz will keep following the US blindly and same is the case with Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission. Britain is in the throes of an economic crisis but has announced the launch of five warships quoting Russian threat. 

The US deliberately does ‘not’ want to understand the effect of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on European industries and economy because it immensely benefits the US. But the double hit of trade disruption from US subsidies and high energy prices risk turning European public opinion against both the war effort and the transatlantic alliance. Despite this, the US wants to  rally the EU through France in its battle against China.  Macron did mention at the joint press conference with Biden that America’s green subsidies can split Europe. He actually needs to take a stronger stand because the split or the threat to split alone would cap the US madness. 

At the NATO foreign ministers meet on November 29-30, the resolution was to never recognize Russia’s incorporation of four Ukrainian regions. NATO General-Secretary Jens Stoltenberg (American pet) says NATO will continue to support Ukraine. But the war in Ukraine can escalate more if efforts continue to cross Russia’s redlines including capping the Russian oil even more. The danger of a nuclear war remains high if Russia is continuously pushed to the wall. Russia has already postponed a meeting of the Bilateral Consultative Commission under the Russia-US New START Treaty and China is working on a threefold increase of its nuclear arsenal.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Lt Gen Prakash Katoch

is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army.

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