Geopolitics

The Great Wall(s) of China
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 28 Dec , 2015

Chinese Aggressiveness

China is aggressive not only in its international politics. The Communist Party of China has undertaken very deep brainwashing over the past 65 years such that every Chinese is now aggressive as well as beholden to the Communist Party.  This aggressiveness shows in the behavior of the Chinese urban, educated people – and also in its rustic lower class of urban centers.  Taxi drivers, tourist guides, hotel personnel, business partners, etc. – basically, the common people — are corrupt, deceptive, and aggressive.  Aggressiveness in the name of China is further pressed into the educated citizens by mandating military training, and by having trainers shout down at 18-year old college students during that training.

Diplomacy is absolutely not respected by the Chinese, and is taken as a definite sign of weakness by them.

The aggressive behavior of the Chinese was further deepened by design by preventing urban parents from having more than one child except by paying penalty.  Now, the young Chinese look to the Communist Party for succor.  After their parents pass on, they look upon the Communist Party as their father and mother.  Since there is no concept of God in the communist manifesto, the Communist Party loves this new status the youngsters give it.  But, it is all by design with the purpose of subverting the traditional concept of family, and making every Chinese citizen beholden to the Communist Regime.  The signs are that the“1984” of George Orwell is most likely situated in the about-to-come years of 21st century China.

Even a taxi driver in Kuala Lumpur spoke to me about the across-the-board aggressive behavior of Chinese tourists, such that he wishes he could THROW them out of his taxi; on the other side, the author has witnessed Chinese aggression in various shapes and forms in business and professional interactions, only to realize that they are silenced best when the aggression is reciprocated.  Diplomacy is absolutely not respected by the Chinese, and is taken as a definite sign of weakness by them.  After all, they know very well that words can never kill people, only bullets can.  Somehow, India fails to recognize that fully.

…a major war of the rest of the world breaking out against China around 2050 is very likely, though Russia is a wild card here, where it is not known on whose side it will fight or stay neutral.

For Westerners and others who think that capitalism and economic advancement will bring about a change or revolution for democracy in China, I have a message:  It’s NOT happening.  If anything, the younger generation is becoming more proud and arrogant with the accomplishments of the Communist Party and the ability of the Chinese government to stand up to its neighbors and USA.  Therefore, the next Chinese generation is likely to be even more aggressive than the present, and by 2050, it is possible that the whole of China will be even more thoroughly brainwashed and aggressive than at present.  Hence, a major war of the rest of the world breaking out against China around 2050 is very likely, though Russia is a wild card here, where it is not known on whose side it will fight or stay neutral.

Testing the USA and Other countries

Periodically, China undertakes belligerent acts against the USA, like faking an air accident between one of its fighter planes and a US surveillance plane; threatening US overflights over Senkaku; and threatening US naval patrols in the South China Sea.  China “tests” Indian resolve by making incursions in Leh/Ladakh and Arunachal.  China “tests” Vietnam by trying to stop Vietnam from exploring for gas in the South China Sea; and “tests” Japanese resolve on Senkaku.  All these tests are for one purpose: to learn of the others’ behavior.  But, as yet, China will not likely venture for a major battle with any nation in the foreseeable five years, but will slowly calibrate itself, test others and learn from them, build up its own military strength with the economic muscle it has developed[6], while keeping all adversaries guessing and unbalanced.  This is typical Sun Tzu in action, and the world is already falling for Chinese baits.  Only when China has military superiority to at least defend ALL its borders simultaneously, will it seek to take offensive action in a limited war, but not before.  Every success will be followed by further forays till they will divide and isolate small nations before swallowing them.

The US and European nations, including Australia, think that they are able to convert the Chinese diaspora, make them “democratic” in their thinking, and make them ally with the free Western world.  But, this is only half-true.

The US to Blame

The USA is already bitterly complaining about Chinese cyberspace warfare, with being able to do little about it.  But, the USA has itself to blame.  First, Nixon made the blunder of opening up to the dragon to contain the bear.  Now, the same dragon is not only not grateful, but breathes fire upon the USA itself.  If anyone visits China, one can see US retail stores and brand names dotting all the great malls; virtually everything that China does has been the gift of USA, and large exports are made to the USA, showing how dependent China is on the USA.  Instead of being grateful to a client, China bites the hand that feeds it.  While American investors fueled the rise of Baidu, China bans Google in Beijing.  None of this can be good for China from a moral perspective: what goes around must come around.

Next, Bill Clinton gave tax breaks to US companies and factories to take American companies to China.  After the great sucking sound died down, USA was left empty with more than half its manufacturing gone to China.  And now the USA wonders why China shows it its eyes!

In the same vein, the US and Australia allow Chinese students to study in the USA.  Those Chinese students take back technology and secrets to China.  The US and Australia, in their merchant mind, think they are making money by allowing Chinese students to study in the US, but in reality, the Chinese are in the US and Australia to learn from the only enemy that stands in its ambition to be the no. 1 nation in the world.

The Chinese Diaspora

Another mistake the world makes is to think that the Chinese diaspora is vastly different to the Chinese Communist Party.  The US and European nations, including Australia, think that they are able to convert the Chinese diaspora, make them “democratic” in their thinking, and make them ally with the free Western world.  But, this is only half-true.  The Chinese diaspora donates large sums of money for Chinese projects in the mainland; they still have family back in China, and visit them often – much like the Indian or any other diaspora.  Much of the Chinese diaspora is “loyal” to the Chinese mainland, no matter which political party is in power there.  Hence, whether it is Malaysian Chinese, Fijian Chinese, Australian Chinese, Indian Chinese, or American Chinese, this diaspora is still likely to lean toward mainland China if mainland China is involved in a war.  Emotional sentiments are hard to dissolve, and so is the case with the Chinese diaspora.

One has to watch out for China – not just for the next five years – but for the next 35 years.  This type of planning horizon is not seen in the Western and democratic countries, who can only see till the next election cycle and then minus some.

At present, the richest people in the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia are Chinese; the Panama Canal is controlled by the Chinese; the Chinese are buying real estate in Sydney in large numbers; and every Chinatown in every major world city has a Chinese crime ring center and spy ring center.  The Communist party actively engages the rich diaspora to invest back in China, represent China in its international dialogues, and generate intelligence for China.  In addition, China is avidly encouraging Chinese nationals to migrate to the USA and join the military there.  Anybody can imagine where the loyalties of those people will lie.  Such government driven programs are dangerous, indeed.  This is unlike India, which has no such program.  But, all indicators point to China planning a take over of the world from every which way, including by giving many gifts and benefits to the small Pacific and all African nations, and it is doing so in an organized, deliberate manner.

Chinese Money in Political Action

The Chinese now have their fingers in the politics of every nation.  They fund political groups and Chinese sympathizers in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand, Cambodia, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Philippines.  They fund Indian Naxalite and ULFA terrorist outfits.  And, they bribe and twist the arm of any foreign officials they can get to.   For the first time, China sent in military personnel into Nepal only a few months ago as part of disaster relief.  This is, no doubt, going to be followed by more.  China actually pays political groups that are in its favor in the corrupt Central Asia, as well as pay for political action in South-east Asia through its diaspora.  In many ways, China already has numerous countries in its sway – Africa being heavily pronounced – and so China is not a lonely power.  All signs reveal that the Chinese have a long term game plan in action – and that is incontrovertibly to dominate the world.  Over the past few years, China has increased its Antarctic presence to the highest of any nation, and has the largest presence of military personnel there, begging the question what China has in mind.  One only wonders what is the USA’s plan to counter China’s emerging dominance, and whether that plan is going to be effective.

While the rest of the world is presently distracted in the Middle East, China is using this time to prepare for military superiority and world dominance.

Conclusions

One has to watch out for China – not just for the next five years – but for the next 35 years.  This type of planning horizon is not seen in the Western and democratic countries, who can only see till the next election cycle and then minus some.  In China, to the contrary, they know that the Communist Party is going nowhere, and so they have the luxury to plan far into the future – up to 50 years out.

While the rest of the world is presently distracted in the Middle East, China is using this time to prepare for military superiority and world dominance.  The rate of growth they have had over the past three-and-half decades shows that they can achieve the same growth in military affairs.  It will be recalled that Xi Jianping is reducing the riffraff part of his PLA by 300,000 people, but will invest all that money into modernization, defense production, and military might.

Let no one be fooled: if China today is hard to control, the future China of 2050 is going to be vastly more powerful, belligerent, and intransigent than the China of today.  China will build great walls between nations and alliances, and then build walls between its own citizens, such that all Chinese citizens are beholden and loyal to their Communist Party.  This is ominous, forbidding, malefic, and Orwellian.  The only chance the world has against the emergence of a suppressive and unreligious China is to somehow arrest the economic growth of China, else the dragon surely plans – from all evidence displayed — to burn everyone.  Never give a dragon a chance, for any time it’s given a chance, it seeks revenge and dominance – that is the inherent nature of the mythical dragon; world leaders do not believe in mythological precepts, but the Chinese take everything about the mythical dragon very seriously.  Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton made their mistakes, but let the present and future leaders of nations not repeat them.  But all this is no respite for India, for whom the challenges against a rising China are going to increase if they do not want to capitulate to a domineering China as a vassal state would.  India will have to be specially imaginative and technologically creative if it wishes to stay abreast of China’s developing military power.

Notes:


[1] When asked why he didn’t occupy Lahore, Gen Harbaksh’s reply was that the Pakistanis would have tried to capture it back, in which event Lahore would have been severely damaged, if not destroyed.  When pressed why that was a problem, his reply was that he didn’t see any need to destroy a historical city such as Lahore.  Besides, he added, they [the Pakistanis] could have captured and destroyed Amritsar.  As such, Harbakhsh did not see any advantage in capturing Lahore.  His reasoning was that so long as he could tie down Pakistani forces, he could come out successful, and that was all he needed.

[3] Britain, Austria-Hungary, Italy, France, India, Australia, Germany, Japan, and USA; Refer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight-Nation_Alliance, accessed Nov 2015.

[4] India supplied 10,000 troops – Sikhs, Baluchis, Gorkhas, Rajputs, Punjabis; Referhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight-Nation_Alliance, accessed Nov 2015.

[5]After the next defeat of China, Mao Tse Tung’s body should ideally be cremated or buried or given to the vultures, as undertaken by the world’s major religions, thus liberating that misguided soul.

[6] India will be unable to compete equally with China in military enhancement because India’s legal economy is one-third the size of China’s.  Thus, Indian planners and leaders face tremendous hurdles and odds.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Dr Amarjit Singh

is an independent security analyst.

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