Nature has a strange way of altering the destiny of men and nations. The great biblical floods gave rise to the Jewish Nation, the terrible famine of Bengal in the 1850s helped provoke the first battle for India’s independence. The devastating cyclone which hit East Pakistan in 1970 was indirectly responsible for the creation of Bangladesh. Throughout history, famines, droughts and floods have affected nations and civilizations. When a nation is weak or unstable the effects of natural disasters tend to be more pronounced.
Today, as Pakistan reels under the worst floods in living memory, and an ineffective government struggles to come to grips with the problem, there are fears that the waters may have swept away more than just its people and land. It may just change the future of this already beleaguered nation.
When a nation is weak or unstable the effects of natural disasters tend to be more pronounced.
The effects of the floods have been more devastating than any other man-made calamity in Pakistan’s 63 year old history. Already it has lost more than the combined material and human loss in all its four wars with India and many opine that these are even worse than the 1929 floods which caused similar devastation. The floods which began around 18 July have swept across the entire length of the Indus from its catchment areas in the Hindukush and Karakoram ranges through the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province and into the picturesque Swat valley – which is just recovering from last year’s military campaign against Islamic militants. It surged through the fertile agricultural belt of Punjab – which feeds the nation and is the bulwark of its economy – and swept into Sindh right down to the mouth of the Indus on the Arabian Sea. Along the 1000 km long route of its devastation the Indus has swollen into a 20 kilometer wide torrent at places. In the process, the waters have claimed an estimated 1600 lives but that is no measure of the human calamity.
Also read: Pakistan: The Anti-India Identity
Over 20 million people have been affected and over 500,000 rendered homeless. 1.4 million acres of agricultural land has been destroyed and almost one fifth of the country (an area the size of UK) has been submerged under water. The relatively small death toll does not take into consideration the thousands more who will perish due to cholera, typhoid, gastroenteritis and other water borne diseases. What makes it even worse is that the flood waters have washed away roads, bridges, canals, headworks and railways which will take a decade to re-build. Pakistan’s irrigation network in Punjab and Sindh, on which its agricultural based economy is dependent, has gone – and with it not only this year’s crop but the output for the next three or more years will be affected. But, more importantly the psychological damage has the potential to rip apart this fragile, unstable nation.
The Economic Cost
The economic cost of the disaster will hurt Pakistan most. Pakistan’s economy is predicated on its agriculture and dependent on aid. With its crops gone, it is now faced with a zero percent GDP growth and galloping inflation of 25 percent, against the targeted GDP growth rate of 4.5 percent and inflation rate of 9.5 percent for this financial year. By conservative estimates it will take $ 500 million to rebuild Pakistan – but this time foreign aid is not coming. Donors are actually tired of pumping money in a nation which is perceived to be ungrateful and untrustworthy. Its double dealings exposed in the Wikipedia leaks have only reinforced this perception.
Over 20 million people have been affected and over 500,000 rendered homeless. 1.4 million acres of agricultural land has been destroyed and almost one fifth of the country (an area the size of UK) has been submerged under water.
There are also fears, and very legitimate ones, that the money will be siphoned off by politicians and bureaucrats as had been done during the 2005 earthquake. For a nation, whose economy is so fragile, this additional financial burden could just break it.
The limited aid that has come is largely from the “Devil”, (as per most Pakistanis) the USA (which provided $90 million is addition to the $ 7.5 billion long term aid package they had announced earlier). India contributed $ 5 million initially which was accepted with a show of much dithering. In fact, Indian aid has outstripped France ($1.5 million), Germany ($2.4 million), Italy ($ 1.8 million) Netherlands ($1.3 million) and a host of other nations. Even Saudi Arabia and the Arab nations have been a little tight with their purse-strings, which reflect the growing distrust of Pakistan’s organization and its image as a nation.
In the West the perception is that the aid is essential not only on humanitarian grounds, but to help keep Pakistan afloat as a nation and prevent it from collapsing completely or be taken over by Islamic fundamentalists who are now presented a situation that is ripe for exploitation.
The Political Cost
Even as Pakistan reeled under the floods, Zardari swanned off to UK and France, ostensibly to collect funds, but actually to visit his 16th century chateau and promote the political career of his son Bilawal. The visit – or rather the return – was a disaster. The much reviled “Mr Ten Percent” – who has been changed with siphoning almost $ 300 million from the aid received for the 2005 earthquake -had his image shattered almost completely. He followed up the blunder with some horrendous puns on the 14 August Independence Day speech where he vowed not to let the rains “dampen” the enthusiasm or let the nation be “submerged” by the calamity. In his ill-timed jaunt, he may have just written his own political epitaph, and with it an epitaph for democracy in Pakistan.
Pakistans history has shown that whenever a Chief is granted an extension, there has been a coup and an imposition of martial law.
The floods have tarnished Pakistan’s politicians as nothing else – not so much for their insensitivity and lack of administration, but for their willingness to capitalize even on this national crisis. Few donations have reached government agencies. Most private donors and charitable organizations chose to deliver their collections directly to the flood-affected areas for the fear that it will be misappropriated if handed over to government agencies. With the political administration having failed completely, into the fray have stepped the army and also the very militant groups that they are combating.
The army is now seen as the only savior whose helicopters and food packets are visible signs of some kind of cohesive response. And the army is capitalizing on this to boost its own image. Aid packages are wrapped in paper with the army logo prominently emblazoned; relief trucks entering flood-affected areas carry banners saying “From Pakistan Army”, or “From Corps Commander, _ Corps”. After the beating that the image of the army had suffered under Musharraf, it is once emerging as Pakistan’s savior in its hour of need.
The editorials have begun calling for the army to step back in power and “save the nation” and the mood has swayed dramatically back from anti-government to pro-army. General Kayani’s recent three year extension as Chief has given him a renewed power and a legitimate standing to once again impose the writ of the army. Pakistan’s history has shown that whenever a Chief is granted an extension, there has been a coup and an imposition of martial law. So is Pakistan’s nascent democracy once again coming to an end and are we likely to witness another period of military rule.
The Revival of Militant Groups
Another unlikely gainer in this disaster are the militant groups – who as in the 2005 earthquake are in the forefront of relief work. Banned groups like Lashker-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Muhammad and Harkat-ul-Jihad Al Islam have set up offices and collection centers, first with assumed names and then under their own identities and organized relief activities— many say far more effectively than government agencies. One militant spokesman boasted “We feed 50,000 people everyday”. Like the army their presence, is visible and their impact seen as being far more tangible than the ineffective administration. Like the army, the image of militant groups has sky-rocketed.
Even in the midst of floods, bomb blasts continued unabated across Pakistan and triggered off a wave of ethnic violence in Karachi.
This causes a strange paradox. The militants were losing ground not only in the battles in Swat and Waziristan but also in the minds of the population. Ironically just a week prior to the floods the ISI had released an assessment stating “a two third likelihood of a major threat coming from militants rather than India or elsewhere” – the first time in its history that India was not viewed as the major threat. The army is now actually working together with the same militants to provide some measure of aid to the flood victims. Also, the alienation that was suffered by the militants after their atrocities in the Swat Valley and their wave of bombing attacks throughout the nation is now reducing. The Swat Valley itself, one of the militant hotspots, has been one of the most flood affected regions. Over one million people were then displaced by military actions in the region. With the man-made calamity having just subsided, this natural calamity has emerged to uproot them once again. When they and most of Pakistan’s displaced peasantry go back, there will have no homes, fields or livestock to return to. Rehabilitating their lives will take half a decade, even if the administration is effective and the aid reaches where it has to.
The social scale of the tragedy will provide a boost to the Jehadi cause. Over 20 million have been affected and the thousands of unemployed, landless peasants with literally nothing to live for will now be attracted to the Jehadi cause. Children, whose schools are washed away, will turn to the militant run Madarsas and the vitriolic brand of education they propagate. The cohesive relief campaign organized by militant groups has shown the government in poor light. Suddenly the majority of the population will tilt towards them – as they did to the Taliban in the chaos of Afghanistan in the 90s. We may then see an ideological and political rise of the Taliban in Pakistan on a far larger scale than Afghanistan and with it the very real possibility of the nation being taken over by militants.
The Strategic Impact
The floods have also affected Pakistan in the most critical phase of the war in Afghanistan. The Pak army has indefinitely postponed its operations in Waziristan and deployed its troops for flood-relief operations. Pressure on the Taliban and Al-Qaeda on both sides of the Durand Line has reduced considerably and they will now be able to consolidate and then negotiate from a position of strength when the US begins its withdrawal from Afghanistan.
It will take five years for Pakistan to restore the situation provided the cumulative effects of the floods do not swamp the nation. Pakistanis response to this crisis will determine its future as a nation.
The Army operations – if they do resume – have been affected by the washing away of roads, culverts and bridges in Swat and Waziristan. In that difficult terrain, the army was dependent on infrastructure for its military actions and sustenance. With that having gone resuming operations will be even more difficult. The critical window for operations is also closing. The army has only two or three months before winter sets in and no operations would be possible thereafter. With precious time being lost in flood relief operations, it is unlikely that the army will be able to conduct operations in this season.
The disastrous floods have in no way affected the internal situation in the country. Bombs still go off with chilling regularity throughout the nation; Shia-Sunni clashes still take place with each others mosques being targeted. Karachi is still a tinder-box with waves of ethnic violence sweeping the city and everywhere else like Peshawar, Quetta, Lahore or Islamabad where the terrorists demonstrate their ability to strike at will. While the army and the administration is engaged in the floods the jihadi activities will enhance.
The Long-Term Impact
It will take five years for Pakistan to restore the situation provided the cumulative effects of the floods do not swamp the nation. Pakistanis response to this crisis will determine its future as a nation.
Will its democratic institution hold? It seems unlikely given the inept performance of its politicians in the crisis. The army may just come back in power and with a hawkish Kayani as Chief, Pakistan my go back under martial law – perhaps just a few months after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Islamic fundamentalist parties may also gain politically. In all fair elections held so far, Pakistanis have not voted for religious parties and have soundly rejected them. But the two major political parties under Zardari and Sharif have performed so poorly that we may just see a revival of these Islamic parties. That could give them the political legitimacy and a say in the government which would be disastrous both for the nation and the region.
Pakistan will undoubtedly fall back on the India card in times of crisis. Already some sections of the media are blaming the floods on India”¦
The floods will further highlight the ethnic divide in Punjab, Sindh, Baluchistan and the other provinces. Even in the midst of floods, bomb blasts continued unabated across Pakistan and triggered off a wave of ethnic violence in Karachi. As internal unrest intensifies and the administration is unable to cope with it, the ethnic and religious fault lines may fracture further, especially in Sindh and Baluchistan. Water itself may compound the problem. The common complaint of the people of Sindh and Baluchistan is that they are denied water and other resources at the expense of Punjab. Much of the rehabilitation will be focused at Punjab, which may heighten the sense of alienation in other provinces. Also the floods have damaged the irrigation machinery irreversibly as canals, head-works and distributaries have been literally swept away in the onrush of the flood waters. This will effect the subsequent flow of Indus water from Punjab into Sindh and perhaps a greater quantum of water may have to be diverted into Punjab in the coming few seasons. This may take on ethnic overtones and perhaps divide the population even further.
What of its impact on India? Pakistan will undoubtedly fall back on the India card in times of crisis. Already some sections of the media are blaming the floods on India, accusing it of releasing the waters from our areas. The army and government could find it convenient to divert public attention from their economic and social problems by shifting the angst towards India. If the army and militant groups make common ground, we could see a revival of unrest in Kashmir or even a military misadventure along the borders. India could be a common enemy to unify its people.
The floods have presented a more severe threat to the economic, social and politically stability of the country than any other event in Pakistanis history (including partition and the 1971 war). The manner in which this crisis is handled will determine the future of this unstable, nuclear armed nation. If the response is cohesive and mature, it may limp back to some measure of normalcy with liberal infusions of foreign aid. If the response of the government and its agencies is weak and militant groups are allowed to exploit the situation it may find itself facing anarchy once again. How the army reacts in this situation amidst weakening democratic institutions and economic unrest will be a major determinant of its future course.
Two thousand years ago, the Indus Valley Civilization that existed along the banks of the Indus River was washed away by the angry river and the fabled civilization destroyed. The historical heritage sites of Mohenjo-daro and Harappa which were the seat of that civilization have been severely affected by this flood as well. Along the banks of the Indus, a great flood once again threatens the future of Pakistan and its people. How they cope with it will determine whether Pakistan will survive as a nation or be submerged beneath the collective weight of its problems.
Please wait...
