Geopolitics

Taliban Launches Spring Offensive
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 07 May , 2021

Spring runs through March to May in Afghanistan. A 90-day reduction in violence intended to prevent a spring offensive by Taliban was among the four point proposal by America’s Joe Biden Administration to stabilize Afghanistan. Reduction in violence was a term as vague as it possibly could be which the Taliban would have laughed at. Violence never reduced in Afghanistan. A car bomb killed at least 30 Afghan security personnel and injured 60 people in Logar Province in eastern Afghanistan on April 30. Three days later, at least seven Afghan military personnel were killed when the Taliban set off explosives smuggled through a tunnel they had dug into an army outpost in southwestern Farah Province of Afghanistan.

But the Taliban did wait to launch its spring offensive till May 1 which was the deadline for withdrawal of all US troops from Afghanistan under the US-Taliban peace deal signed by the Trump Administration on February 29, 2020. US troops began withdrawing from bases on May 1as ordered. According to Afghan officials, the plan is to withdraw all US-NATO troops to America’s Bagram Base in Afghanistan’s Parwan Province from where they would leave for respective countries.

The Bagram Base is operated jointly by the US Army and Air Force. It has elements of US Army, Air Force, US Navy, Marine Corps, Coast Guard and Coalition Forces as well as civilians. Bagram airfield was used by Soviet troops during the Soviet occupation. The US is to withdraw its remaining 2,500 troops by September 11.  

On May 1, America’s Kandahar base was subjected to fire though the attack was not claimed by any group. The US military said it carried out a precision strike after an airfield in Kandahar where it has a base received ineffective indirect fire that caused no damage. On May 2, the US military handed over Camp Antonik in the southern Helmand Province to Afghan forces. The Taliban unleashed its spring offensive immediately thereafter.

Thereafter, news emerged on May 4 that Afghan security forces had fought back a huge Taliban offensive in southern Helmand Province in the last 24 hours, as Taliban also launched multiple attacks across the country. The Taliban reportedly attacked Lashkar Gah, capital of Helmand Province on May 3 from multiple directions, attacking checkpoints around the outskirts and taking over some of them. Afghan security forces responded by launching air strikes and deployed Special Forces to the area pushing back Taliban. But fighting is continuing with hundreds of families displaced.

According to Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defence, over 100 Taliban fighters have been killed in Helmand, which may be exaggerated since no details were provided about casualties among Afghan security forces and civilians. The Taliban too has not released any details of casualties but Taliban spokesperson, Mohammad Naeem told media, “This in principle opens the way for our mujahedeen to take appropriate action against the invading forces”, adding that the group was awaiting orders from its leaders for its future course of action.

Milley also said it is possible that the US troop withdrawal will be finished before the September 11 target date announced by the White House though he refrained from giving a specific date. The option to ‘scoot’ may have been kept open in case the Taliban go all out attacking withdrawing foreign troops. Such a possibility can hardly be ruled out especially since Biden would be loath to extend the stay of US troops beyond September 11 in the event of all out Taliban ofensive. After all, America’s ‘green zone’ in Kabul has been subjected to fire in the past, as have been American bases. Taliban last fired rockets at Bagram Base in December 2020 albeit no damage was reported.  

An interesting statement made by Milley is that post the withdrawal of US troops, the US will provide unspecified “capabilities” to the Afghan military from other locations. How would that be – long range bombers dropping ‘mother-of-all bombs’ (MOAB) like during Trump Administration, cruise missiles fired from ships at sea or space weapons? There has been talk of Pentagon, CIA and allies leaving behind less visible (covert) presence, more troops in neighbouring countries (where?), surveillance by armed drones and civilian contractors working for the CIA. But wouldn’t this provoke the Taliban more and increase the anti-US sentiment in the country? Similarly, Mike Esper as Secretary of Defense under the Trump administration talked of troops pulled out from Afghanistan to be re-deployed in the Indo-Pacific against China. Where would that be – Taiwan, Philippines, beefing up US military presence in Australia or on board carrier battle groups?

Hillary Clinton, former US Secretary of State who was strong supporter of the US intervention in Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks in 2001, has told media there is risk of the Taliban retaking control of Afghanistan after the exit of US troops. Of course as a typical politician, she has talked of “consequences both foreseen and unintended of staying and of leaving’, terming it a “wicked problem”.

The general feeling in the Taliban is that they have won the war, Americans are on the run and Taliban indeed the government-in-waiting. They are much better organized, armed and externally supported compared to when the US invaded Afghanistan in 2001 though their hard-line Islamist ideology remains unaltered – calling themselves the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.They also have a sophisticated “shadow” structure, with officials in charge of overseeing everyday services in the areas they control.

Whether Taliban’s spring offensive includes resumption of attacks against foreign troops only time will tell but writing is on the wall for US-NATO troops exiting Afghanistan latest by September 11. Going by the manner in which Taliban has snubbed proposals by the Biden Administration; they would not lose any opportunity to attack US troops unless they feel it is better to conserve fire power to take control of Afghanistan fastest after Americans exit.  

After the US troop exit, it would be interesting to watch how the geopolitical game at the sub-conventional level will play out in the Af-Pak region, especially between the US and China. The CIA has immense experience in this but China too has been a fast learner as can be seen from its handling of terrorist groups to its advantage in South Asia and Myanmar. A covert China-US clash appears to be already on in Myanmar’s Kachin State. In South Asia, who can better handle the Taliban, ISIS, Al Qaeda and other terrorists groups will matter. The CIA has had influence over the ISIS and Al Qaeda and would like to use Uighur fighters trained abroad. On the other hand, China has the benefit of Pakistan-based terrorist groups with Pakistan sitting in its lap. Besides, both China and Pakistan have been supporting and arming the Taliban.

With exit of troops from Afghanistan, the US has the opportunity to disrupt the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Disrupting the CPEC, China-Myanmar-Economic Corridor (CMEC) and covert targeting of China’s pipelines would be good rejoinder to China’s rabid behaviuor in the East and South China Seas. The CIA could use the Taliban or part thereof to establish Pashtunistan, in conjunction the Tehriki-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), even ISIS and Al Qaeda to balkanize Pakistan – payback time for American bloodshed in Afghanistan because of Pakistan support to Taliban and through Pakistan proxies.

The US appears patching up with Iran and the Biden Administration is possibly negotiating with Tehran for lifting terror sanctions on Iran. But the CIA may not find it easy to handle the Al Qaeda as in the past. The US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has recently confirmed that Al-Qaeda’s global terror operations areheadquartered in Iran, with the permission of the Iranian government. According to reports Hamzabin-Laden is not dead; he lives in a secure apartment in Tehran with his wife (daughter of Ayman al-Zawahiri) and two children.

Finally, the winner between the US and China in the AF-Pak region at the sub-conventional level will be whoever can handle the multitude of terrorist groups more adroitly to its strategic advantage.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Lt Gen Prakash Katoch

is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army.

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2 thoughts on “Taliban Launches Spring Offensive

  1. I very much doubt that the US can patch up with any country including Iran. They can, at best, achieve a restive detente as we saw from Bidne’s proclamation about India EEZ and need for COVID supplies. Undortunately for India, China is getting closer to Iran (enemy of THE enemy) and has done a deal for Chabahar to have an alternate to Gwadar to access the Arabaian Sea to access it long term cheap raw material contracts and loan shark infrastucture projects in Africa and so by pass the threat to CPEC from the Balloch.

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