Indian Defence Review

While the next Presidential elections are due in January 2016, the pro-independence opposition party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), hopes to build on the momentum of its success in local elections. It goes without saying that China will try her utmost to influence the Presidential race in Taiwan next year. Though bulk of the Taiwan population descends from Han Chinese (about 84 per cent), in a survey conducted by the National Chengchi University late last year, only 3.5 per cent of the respondents identified themselves as Chinese. 60.6 per cent identified themselves as exclusively Taiwanese while 32.5 per cent identified themselves as both Chinese and Taiwanese.

Interestingly, in a similar survey conducted during March 2009, 49 per cent respondents had considered themselves exclusively Taiwanese. The rise from 49 per cent in 2009 to 60.6 percent in 2014 is interesting, indicating the resolve to remain independent. More importantly, in another survey conducted in July 2009, 82.8 per cent of respondents opined that ROC and the PRC as two separate countries, with each developing on its own.

Taiwan is referred to as one of the four Asian Tigers; other three being Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore. As of 2008, more than $150 billion had been invested in the PRC by Taiwanese companies, and about ten per cent of the Taiwanese labour force was working in the PRC, primarily running their own businesses. Today Taiwan has a dynamic, capitalist, export-driven economy with gradually decreasing state involvement in investment and foreign trade. Taiwan’s total trade in 2010 reached an all-time high at $526.04 billion, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance. Both exports and imports for the year reached record levels, totaling $274.64 billion and $251.4 billion, respectively. China-Taiwan trade in January-February 2015 amounted to $27.15 billion, up two per cent year on year, accounting for 4.4 per cent of the total volume of China’s external trade. China’s export to Taiwan was $6.31billion, up 12.5 per cent year on year, and China’s imports from Taiwan was $20.84 billion, down 0.8 per cent year on year. Taiwan is China’s seventh largest trade partner and fifth largest source of imports.

India-Taiwan Relations

Taiwan maintains the Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre in India at New Delhi while India maintains the India-Taipei Association office in Taiwan at Taipei. In December 2012, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) approved the opening of a branch office (read Consulate) of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre in Chennai. Both countries are making efforts to significantly expand bilateral trade and investments, especially in the fields of information technology, energy, telecommunications and electronics. Major Indian exports to Taiwan include Waste Oil and Naptha, Cereals, Cotton, Organic Chemicals, Copper, Aluminum and Food Residues. Major Taiwanese exports to India include integrated circuits, machinery and other electronic products. India is also keen to attract Taiwanese investment particularly in hi-tech and labour-intensive industries.

By the end of 2013, more than 70 Taiwanese enterprises had invested or set up factories in India, with cumulative investments amounting to more than $1.4 billion. In 2013, the bilateral trade between the two countries amounted to $6.171 billion. Today, more than 80 Taiwanese companies and entities have presence in India. Bilateral trade and Taiwanese investments in India are likely to grow exponentially after conclusion of the FTA between the two countries, a move initiated by the MEA in 2011.

As part of science and technology cooperation, 29 Indo-Taiwan joint proposals were under implementation last year, as follow up to MoU signed between Taiwan’s TECC and India’s ITA during 2007, and another MoU between Taiwan’s Academia Sinica and Indian National Science Academy signed in 2012. In the field of education, MoUs to recognise each other’s university degrees was signed between the Foundation for International Cooperation in Higher Education of Taiwan (FICHET) and the Association of Indian Universities (AIU) in 2010. This has resulted in close cooperation and frequent exchanges between the two countries.

Four Taiwan Education Centres have been set up in India, as platforms for academic cooperation including teaching of Mandarin. Knowledge of Taiwanese language gives the advantage of having the ability to read and understand both Chinese and Japanese, including understanding posts on the Chinese media and internet. Taiwan Scholarships and Huayu Enrichment Scholarships are being provided to India students. Taiwanese universities and colleges also provide scholarships to attract outstanding Indian students. On an average, about 600 Indian students are studying in Taiwan annually.

Strategic Importance of Taiwan

China is obsessed with Taiwan because the CCP and the PLA have made it unification a prestige issue, especially since Taiwan holds historic importance stemming both from the civil war and the legacy of foreign intervention. More importantly, Taiwan is straddling important sea-lanes and is potential base for foreign military forces. Failure to unify Taiwan with China in future is considered by the CCP as potentially dangerous to its political hold on the country, in addition to the loss of face the PLA would suffer. Chinese concerns that Taiwan could be used as a foreign military base underscores Taiwan’s geo-strategic position.

There has been plenty speculation in the past whether the US should defend Taiwan or abandon it in favour of better US-China relations. However, it is clear that purely from the point of view of its geo-strategic location, the US will continue to have great interest in maintaining the status quo; a Taiwan free from Chinese control. China, having added her first aircraft carrier, is already in the process of establishing her first carrier battle group off the Hainan coast. China has massive plans for expansion of a blue water navy, including for dominating the Indo-Pacific. Purely in geographical terms, China feels it is somewhat boxed in by the proximate chain of islands extending southward from Japan, through the Ryukyu’s, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia. That is why her extended claims in the waters of the Pacific and frantic activities to reclaim reefs, establish military facilities and airstrips, extended ADIGs  and the like.

If Taiwan is annexed by China, the PLA Navy would be able to extend its reach to the second island chain, right down to Guam, the Marianas and even some other smaller islands in the central Pacific. As important are the Taiwanese ports, which would provided Chinese submarines quick access to the deep waters of the Pacific. Therefore, Taiwan should logically remain critical to US interests both strategically and militarily. To the rest of the world including India, China’s annexation of Taiwan will turn China into a worse rogue than Nazi Germany thereby endangering peace and stability in every part of the world.

The “One-China” Gag

What exactly is this euphuism about One-China? When China began propounding this theory it only was about Tibet (annexed by China) and Taiwan (planned to be annexed). But what is One China today if not a gag when China expanded her so called One China umbrella to include vast tracts of waters of the Pacific, ECS, SCS, islands and reefs, Aksai Chin, Shaksgam Valley, added claims on Indian Territories including 90,000 square kilometres of the entire state of Arunachal Pradesh – the latter claim proffered as late as year 2005.

The real problem is that China’s thinking continues to be driven by the Middle Kingdom syndrome. If China bullies Taiwan to be called Chinese Taipei or Republic of China, what stops her demand tomorrow that Arunachal Pradesh be called Chinese Arunachal Pradesh or Chinese South Tibet? It is about time that the Chinese bluff be called and China be given the shut up call. The fact remains that China annexed Tibet and East Turkestan and her illogical and illegal claims to the state of Arunachal Pradesh have nullified whatever support India lent to her pleadings to support the One-China policy. If China wants continued Indian support to the One-China policy, let her first clearly define what One-China implies.

China has “guaranteed Pakistan’s territorial integrity” without clarifying her stand on POK, is deploying missiles in Gilgit-Baltistan, is driving the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor through Indian Territories under illegal occupation of Pakistan and provides tacit support to Pakistan’s proxy war against India. Media recently reported that with active involvement of Chinese intelligence, nine militant groups of Northeast India including the NSCN-Khaplang and the ULFA faction led by Paresh Baruah (sheltered by China in the past several months), have formed the “United National Liberation Front of West South East Asia”. So where does the question of continuing to support One-China arise?

Upgrading India-Taiwan Relations

From the foregoing, it should be clear that any past Indian support to the One-China policy has been rendered irrelevant because of subsequent Chinese actions. At the same time, One China should simply be consigned to the dustbin, without further mention. On the other hand, if China ever raises the issue, she should first be asked to clearly define what One China is. The fact is that the global community must facilitate the official entry of Taiwan into the international arena. Isn’t it ironic that on one hand there are musings to provide Palestine space at the international level, Taiwan is denied the same?

When the UN General Assembly voted to grant Palestine non-member status at the United Nations while expressing the urgent need for it to be made full member as far back as November 29, 2012, why not Taiwan? In any case, If China herself has veered from ‘One-China’ to ‘One China Two Systems’ that gives us leverage to establish diplomatic relations with Taiwan, same way as we have with Hong Kong. The alternative is to keep humouring China, expand the India-Taipei Association office and add diplomats and military officers.

The Embassy of China at New Delhi is posted with a host of serving military officers over and above those in its military wing, the cover being compulsory military service. So it stands to logic that the Taiwanese missions abroad too would also have similar arrangements. Then China also has PLA presence (including sprinkling of Special Forces) in garb of civilians in her development projects globally, as well as in companies operating abroad. Logically, Taiwan would also be doing likewise. This notwithstanding, much can be gained mutually between Indian and Taiwanese security forces.

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The FTA would automatically enhance our economic relations, in addition to expanding people-to-people relations, education, culture, and science and technology cooperation. China has very carefully invested in countries surrounding India with unambiguous strategic objectives while India was fixated more towards Look East. It is only now that the present government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has started to engage countries on China’s periphery. To this end, Taiwan is an important country with which we must develop strategic cooperation.