Geopolitics

Strategic Coherence in Russia-Germany Relations
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 25 May , 2018

On May 18, German Chancellor Angela Merkel met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi to discuss the situation in Syria, the conflict in Ukraine, the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and the Iran nuclear deal. The meeting came at an interesting time, following the strain in the transatlantic partnership over issues related to European exception from US tariff on steel and aluminum and President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. While Trump’s behavior over Iran has resulted in European partners siding with Russia and China to save the deal, Germany’s engagement with Russia needs to be viewed in greater detail. Currently, there are three major areas over which Russia-Germany engagement forms a strategic coherence. First, the situation in West Asia, second energy security in the form of Nord Stream II pipeline and third, US policy towards Germany.

For both Russia and Germany, West Asia has become a key area, concerning not only their national security but also the foreign policy objectives. For instance, the case of Syria. Russia’s interest in Syria revolved around two key strategic objectives. First, challenging the US dominance in West Asia and second impeding a forceful regime change in Syria and aiding President Bashar al-Assad in its fight against Islamist radicals. In doing so, Moscow ensured that the threat of Islamic radicals remain contained to Syria and Iraq and did not proliferate to the South Caucasus region- a key determinant to Russia’s domestic security concerns.

Having achieved its objectives of protecting the Assad regime and eliminating strongholds of Islamic State in Syria, Russia has become an important player in the geopolitics of the West Asian region. For Russia, the next step is to bring peace to Syria by way of diplomatic negotiations. In order to do so, Russia has supported the UN sponsored talks between representatives of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the opposition and also its own engagement with Iran and Turkey, aimed at finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict. Any further military involvement in Syria would not only keep Russia bogged down thereby increasing the cost of support but would also make the process of reaching a diplomatic solution difficult.

Similarly, the objective for Berlin is to achieve stability in Syria in order to contain terrorism in Europe and facilitate the return of refugees. The longer the conflict continues, the harder it will be for Berlin to send back refugees. The refugee crisis has become a major cause of concern for Angela Merkel giving the rising popularity of Alternative for Germany (AFD) party. Anti-EU and anti-immigrant populist parties all over Europe, have been able to garner massive public support for their cause. For Merkel, and other European leaders, the rise of populist parties represent a major challenge to the shared liberal values of the EU.

Therefore, although for different reasons, the Syrian conflict represents a direct convergence of interest for both Germany and Russia which goes against the current US actions. It is one of the reasons why Germany did not support, and Russia was highly critical of the latest air strikes carried out by the US, France and the UK against the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime in the town of Douma.

Another case of strategic coherence in West Asia is Iran. The US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreement negotiated between P5+1 and Iran has become an irritant in relations between the transatlantic partners. The failure on part of Chancellor Merkel to convince Donald Trump on her visit to the United States to not withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal shows how deep the divergence of interest run between the two countries. Germany’s primary interests in Iran revolve around promoting stability in the Persian Gulf region which continues to be vitally important for global oil supplies; and to resolve the conflicts in West Asia, in order to prevent further refugee movements toward Europe. For this purpose, the implementation of the Iran nuclear deal is vital.

For Russia, it is not in its interest, if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons or the capabilities to develop them. The JCPOA serves as a diplomatic effort which hinders Iran from developing nuclear weapon capabilities. Second, given the situation in Syria, Moscow is dependent on the Iranian forces to ensure control and stability. Iran is also an important regional player whom Russia has involved in diplomatic negotiations over Syria. Therefore, Moscow cannot afford to overlook its essential military and regional ally on an issue where Iran’s actions are in compliance with the negotiated deal. For both Russia and Germany, their interest in working together on the Iran nuclear deal outweighs the need to cooperate with the United States.

As far as strategic interests in West Asia are concerned, Russia and Germany also find strategic coherence in energy security. The construction of the Nord Stream II gas pipeline has become a major bone of contention between the US and Germany. Nord Stream II is a joint project between German and Austrian companies and Russia’s Gazprom. The project will enable Russia to deliver gas directly to Germany, thereby bypassing the existing pipelines that run through Ukraine. In other words, Nord Stream II will provide Russia with the opportunity to deliver gas to European customers without having to pay transit fees to Ukraine. The pipeline project has been heavily criticized by the European commission, the United States and countries like Poland and Ukraine for making Europe more vulnerable to Russian pressure.

The Trump administration has called on Berlin to abandon the project, not only because it prolongs Europe’s dependence on Russian gas but also because the United States wants to enter the European gas market and become a major player. The US support to the Three Seas Initiative project falls in line with this narrative. The Three Seas Initiative is a joint Polish-Croatian project aimed at reducing Russian energy dominance in Europe. The project facilitates building LNG terminals in Poland to make it a hub for supplying American LNG to central and Eastern European countries. The problem with Liquefied gas from the U.S. is that it needs to be shipped over the Atlantic and naturally becomes more expensive when compared to Russian gas delivered through pipelines.

For Berlin, the Nord Stream II is a cost-effective way for securing its vital energy needs. Moreover, economic engagement with Russia also falls in line with the Ostpolitik approach of the German republic. Therefore, as stated by an EU official in The Wall Street Journal ‘Trump’s strategy seems to be to force us to buy their more expensive gas, but as long as LNG is not competitive, Europe will not agree to some sort of racket and pay extortionate prices’. Trump’s decision to pressurize Berlin to abandon the gas pipeline project is only going to divide Europe on energy needs and bring Germany closer to Russia in the field of energy security.

In fact, President Trump’s recent foreign policy choices in the Iran nuclear deal and its embrace for a new protectionist America first trade policy has not gone well with the transatlantic partners. While on trade, Trump has given a temporary exemption to the EU until June 1, to try and reach a negotiated trade agreement. Whether a new deal would be reached will depend on diplomatic negotiations between the EU and US officials. But, one thing that has become clear is that under President Trump the US is going to rely on protectionist trade policies which may not necessarily work well with its allies. This is most clear, in Trump’s engagement with Germany.

Just like his predecessor Barack Obama, Donald Trump also holds Berlin responsible for its free riding behavior on matters related to security and economy. But where Trump differs is in his approach to deal with Germany. Berlin has become the main target of Trump’s protectionist trade policies and it has been reported that Trump has agreed to permanently exempt Germany from steel tariffs if it abandons its support from big Russian energy projects. In other words, an arm twisting strategy which puts Germany in a precarious position over choosing which aspect of trade it considers to be more important. For an economic power like Germany, being in such a precarious position inevitably puts a strain on its engagement with the United States and pushes it closer towards a deeper engagement with Russia and China. How it will impact the balance of power in Europe is something which needs to be analyzed with greater detail. But from the strategic coherence perspective, given President Trump’s foreign policy choices, Russia and Germany will have a lot of commons to work on.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Trivun Sharma

PhD candidate at the Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, University of Warsaw, Poland. His working thesis is entitled, “Changing Dynamics of European Geopolitics: A Case of Russia and Germany”. His primary research interests include European geopolitics, the role of Germany in Europe and Russia’s foreign and security policy.

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