Geopolitics

Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years
VN:F [1.9.16_1159]
141 votes cast
Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years, 2.6 out of 5 based on 141 ratings
Issue Net Edition | Date : 02 Aug , 2015

On July 8, 2013, the pro-PRC Chinese-language newspaper, Wenweipo, published an article titled “中國未來50年裡必打的六場戰爭 (Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years)”.

The anticipated six wars are all irredentist in purpose — the reclaiming of what Chinese believe to be national territories lost since Imperial China was defeated by the Brits in the Opium War of 1840-42. That defeat, in the view of Chinese nationalists, began China’s “Hundred Years of Humiliation.” (See Maria Hsia Chang,Return of the Dragon: China’s Wounded Nationalism. Westview, 2001.

Below is the English translation of the article, from a Hong Kong blog, Midnight Express 2046. (The year 2046 is an allusion to what this blog believes will be the last year of Beijing’s “One County, Two Systems” formula for ruling Hong Kong, and “the last year of brilliance of Hong Kong.”)

Midnight Express 2046 (ME2046) believes this article “is quite a good portrait of modern Chinese imperialism.” What ME2046 omits are:

  • the original Chinese-language article identifies the source of the article as 中新網 (ChinaNews.com).
  • The Chinese-language title of the article includes the word bi (), which means “must” or “necessarily” or “surely.” That is why  the word “sure” in the English-language title of the article.

PLAN

The Six Wars [Sure] To Be Fought By China In the Coming 50 Years

September 16, 2013

China is not yet a unified great power. This is a humiliation to the Chinese people, a shame to the children of the Yellow Emperor. For the sake of national unification and dignity, China has to fight six wars in the coming fifty years. Some are regional wars; the others may be total wars. No matter what is the nature, each one of them is inevitable for Chinese unification.

The 1st War: Unification of Taiwan (Year 2020 to 2025)

Though we are enjoying peace on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, we should not daydream a resolution of peaceful unification from Taiwan administration (no matter it is Chinese Nationalist Party or Democratic Progressive Party). Peaceful unification does not fit their interests while running for elections. Their stance is therefore to keep to status quo (which is favourable to the both parties, each of them can get more bargaining chips) For Taiwan, “independence” is just a mouth talk than a formal declaration, while “unification” is just an issue for negotiation than for real action. The current situation of Taiwan is the source of anxiety to China, since everyone can take the chance to bargain more from China.

China must work out a strategy to unify Taiwan within the next ten years, that is, by 2020.

China must work out a strategy to unify Taiwan within the next ten years, that is, by 2020. By then, China will have to send an ultimatum to Taiwan, demanding the Taiwanese to choose the resolution of peaceful unification (the most preferred epilogue for the Chinese) or war (an option forced to be so) by 2025. For the purpose of unification, China has to make preparation three to five years earlier. So when the time comes, the Chinese government must act on either option, to give a final answer to the problem.

From the analysis of the current situation, Taiwan is expected to be defiant towards unification, so military action will be the only solution. This war of unification will be the first war under the sense of modern warfare since the establishment of the “New China”. This war will be a test to the development of the People’s Liberation Army in modern warfare. China may win this war easily, or it may turn out to be a difficult one. All depend on the level of intervention of the U.S. and Japan. If the U.S. and Japan play active roles in aiding Taiwan, or even make offensives into Chinese mainland, the war must become a difficult and prolonged total war. On the other hand, if the U.S. and Japan just watch and see, the Chinese army can easily defeat the Taiwanese. In this case, Taiwan can be under control within three months. Even if the U.S. and Japan step in in this stage, the war can be finished within six months.

The 2nd War: “Reconquest” of Spratly Islands (Year 2025 to 2030)

After unification of Taiwan, China will take a rest for two years. During the period of recovery, China will send the ultimatum to countries surrounding the Islands with the deadline of 2028. The countries having disputes on the sovereignty of Islands can negotiate with China on preserving their shares of investments in these Islands by giving up their territorial claims. If not, once China declares war on them, their investments and economic benefits will be taken over by China.

At this moment, the South East Asian countries are already shivering with Chinese military unification of Taiwan.

At this moment, the South East Asian countries are already shivering with Chinese military unification of Taiwan. On one hand, they will be sitting by the negotiation table, yet they are reluctant to give up their interests in the Islands. Therefore, they will be taking the wait-and-see attitude and keep delaying to make final decision. They will not decide whether to make peace or go into war until China takes any firm actions. The map below shows the situation of territorial claims over the Spratly Islands. (Map omitted)

Besides, the U.S. will not just sit and watch China “reconquesting” the Islands. In the 1stwar mentioned above, the U.S. may be too late to join the war, or simply unable to stop China from reunifying Taiwan. This should be enough to teach the U.S. a lesson not to confront too openly with China. Still, the U.S. will aid those South East Asian countries, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, under the table. Among the countries surrounding the South China Sea, only Vietnam and the Philippines dare to challenge China’s domination. Still, they will think twice before going into war with China, unless they fail on the negotiation table, and are sure they can gain military support from the U.S.

The best option for China is to attack Vietnam, since Vietnam is the most powerful country in the region. Beating Vietnam can intimidate the rest. While the war with Vietnam goes on, other countries will not move. If Vietnam loses, others will hand their islands back to China. If the opposite, they will declare war on China.

Of course, China will beat Vietnam and take over all the islands. When Vietnam loses the war and its islands, others countries, intimidated by Chinese military power, yet still with greediness to keep their interests, will negotiate with China, returning the islands and declaring allegiance to China. So China can build the ports and place troops on these islands, extending its influence into the Pacific Ocean.

Up till now, China has made a thorough breakthrough of the First Island Chain and infiltrated the Second one, Chinese aircraft carrier can have free access into the Pacific Ocean, safeguarding its own interests.

The 3rd War: “Reconquest” of Southern Tibet (Year 2035 to 2040)

China and India share a long border, but the only sparking point of conflicts between the two countries is only the part of Southern Tibet. China has long been the imaginary enemy of India. The military objective of India is to surpass China. India aims to achieve this by self-development and importing advanced military technologies and weapons from the U.S, Russia and Europe, chasing closely to China in its economic and military development.

In India, the official and media attitude is more friendly towards the U.S, Russia and Europe, and is repellent or even hostile against China. This leads to unresolvable conflicts with China. On the other hand, India values itself highly with the aids from the U.S, Russia and Europe, thinking it can beat China in wars. This is also the reason of long lasting land disputes.

In my opinion, the best strategy for China is to incite the disintegration of India. By dividing into several countries, India will have no power to cope with China.

Twenty years later, although India will lag behind more compared to China in military power, yet it is still one of the few world powers. If China uses military force to conquer Southern Tibet, it has to bear some losses. In my opinion, the best strategy for China is to incite the disintegration of India. By dividing into several countries, India will have no power to cope with China.

Of course, such plan may fail. But China should at least try its best to incite Assam province and once conquered Sikkim to gain independence, in order to weaken the power of India. This is the best strategy.

The second best plan is to export advanced weapons to Pakistan, helping Pakistan to conquer Southern Kashmir region in 2035 and to achieve its unification. While India and Pakistan are busy fighting against each other, China should take a Blitz to conquer Southern Tibet, at the time occupied by India.

India will not be able to fight a two front war, and is deemed to lose both. China can retake Southern Tibet easily, while Pakistan can control the whole Kashmir. If this plan cannot be adopted, the worst case is direct military action to take back Southern Tibet.

After the first two wars, China has rested for around ten years, and has become a world power both in terms of military and economy. There will only be the U.S. and Europe (on the condition that it becomes a united country. If not, this will be replaced by Russia. But from my point of view, European integration is quite probable) able to cope with China in the top three list in world power.

After taking back Taiwan and Spratly Islands, China has great leap forward in its military power in army, navy, air force and space warfare. China will be on the leading role in its military power, may be only second to the U.S. Therefore, India will lose this war.

The 4th War: “Reconquest” of Diaoyu Island [Senkaku] and Ryukyu Islands (Year 2040 to 2045)

In the mid-21st century, China emerges as the real world power, accompanied with the decline of Japan and Russia, stagnant U.S. and India and the rise of Central Europe. That will be the best time for China to take back Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands. The map below is the contrast between ancient and recent Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands (map omitted).

From the historical records of Chinese, Ryukyu and other countries (including Japan), Ryukyu has long been the vassal states of China since ancient times, which means the islands are the lands of China.

Many people may know that Diaoyu Island is the land of China since the ancient times, but have no idea that the Japanese annexed Ryukyu Island (currently named as Okinawa, with U.S. military base). The society and the government of China is misled by the Japanese while they are discussing on the issues of the East China Sea, such as the “middle-line” set by the Japanese or “Okinawa issue” (Ryukyu Islands in Chinese), by coming to think that Ryukyu Islands are the ancient lands of Japan.

What a shame for such ignorance! From the historical records of Chinese, Ryukyu and other countries (including Japan), Ryukyu has long been the vassal states of China since ancient times, which means the islands are the lands of China. In this case, is the “middle line” set by Japan in the East China Sea justified? Does Japan have anything to do with the East China Sea? (Those who have no idea in these details may refer to “Ryukyu: An indispensable part of China since the ancient times” written by me)

The Japanese has robbed our wealth and resources in the East China Sea and unlawfully occupied Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands for many years, the time will come that they have to pay back. At that time, we can expect that the U.S. will be willing to intervene but has weakened; Europe will keep silent; Russia will sit and watch the fight. The war can end within half of a year with overwhelming victory of China. Japan will have no choice but to return Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands to China. East China Sea becomes the inner lake of China. Who dare to put a finger on it?

The 5th War: Unification of Outer Mongolia (Year 2045 to 2050)

Though there are advocates for reunification of Outer Mongolia at the moment, is this idea realistic? Those unrealistic guys in China are just fooling themselves and making a mistake in strategic thinking. This is just no good to the great work of unification of Outer Mongolia.

China should also pick the groups advocating the unification, aiding them to take over key posts in their government, and to proclaim Outer Mongolia as the core interests of China upon the settlement of Southern Tibet issue by 2040.

After taking Taiwan, we should base our territorial claims on the constitution and domain of the Republic of China (some people may raise a question here: why should we base our claims on the constitution and domain of the Republic of China? In such case, isn’t the People’s Republic of China being annexed by the Republic of China? This is a total bullshit. I will say: the People’s Republic of China is China; the Republic of China is China too. As a Chinese, I only believe that unification means power. The way which can protect the Chinese best from foreign aggression is the best way to the Chinese people.

We also need to know that the People’s Republic of China recognizes the independence of Outer Mongolia. Using the constitution and domain of the People’s Republic of China to unify Outer Mongolia is naked aggression. We can only have legitimate cause to military action using the constitution and domain of the Republic of China. What’s more, it is the case after Taiwan being taken over by China. So isn’t it meaningless to argue which entity being unified?). China should raise the issue of unification with Outer Mongolia, and to take propaganda campaigns inside Outer Mongolia. China should also pick the groups advocating the unification, aiding them to take over key posts in their government, and to proclaim Outer Mongolia as the core interests of China upon the settlement of Southern Tibet issue by 2040.

If Outer Mongolia can return to China peacefully, it is the best result of course; but if China meets foreign intervention or resistance, China should be prepared to take military action. Taiwan model can be useful in this case: giving an ultimatum with deadline in the Year 2045. Let Outer Mongolia to consider the case for few years. If they refuse the offer, then military action takes off.

In this moment, the previous four wars have been settles. China has the political, military and diplomatic power to unify Outer Mongolia. The weakened U.S. and Russia dare not to get involved except diplomatic protests; Europe will take a vague role; while India, Africa and Central Asian countries will remain silent. China can dominate Outer Mongolia within three years’ time. After the unification, China will place heavy troops on frontier to monitor Russia. China will take ten years to build up elemental and military infrastructure to prepare for the claim of territorial loss from Russia.

The 6th War: Taking back of lands lost to Russia (Year 2055 to 2060)

The current Sino-Russian relationship seems to be a good one, which is actually a result of no better choice facing the U.S. In reality, the two countries are meticulously monitoring the each other. Russia fears the rise of China threaten its power; while China never forgets the lands lost to Russia. When the chance comes, China will take back the lands lost.

When the Chinese army deprives the Russians’ ability to counter strike, they will come to realize that they can no longer match China in the battlefield.

After the victories of the previous five wars by 2050, China will make territorial claims based on the domain of Qing Dynasty (similar way by making use of the domain of the Republic of China to unify Outer Mongolia) and to make propaganda campaigns favoring such claims. Efforts should also be made to disintegrate Russia again.

In the days of “Old China”, Russia has occupied around one hundred and sixty million square kilometre of lands, equivalent to one-sixth of the landmass of current domain of China. Russia is therefore the bitter enemy of China. After the victories of previous five wars, it is the time to make Russians pay their price.

There must be a war with Russia. Though at that time, China has become an advanced power in navy, army, air and space forces, it is nevertheless the first war against a nuclear power. Therefore, China should be well prepared in nuclear weapons, such as the nuclear power to strike Russia from the front stage to the end. When the Chinese army deprives the Russians’ ability to counter strike, they will come to realize that they can no longer match China in the battlefield. They can do nothing but to hand over their occupied lands and to pay a heavy price to their invasions.

Rate this Article
Collapse
VN:F [1.9.16_1159]
141 votes cast
Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years, 2.6 out of 5 based on 141 ratings
The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

More by the same author

Post your Comment

*

2000characters left

 

45 thoughts on “Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years

  1. So some Chinese fool thinks in his fairy tales that china will attack India and they can win a part of land from India by facing small fraction of loss.
    loll…
    India in its full aggressive form can tear china in front of this world .into so many pieces that you Chinese will start dreaming lord Buddha laughing on your shity faces after world strongest nuclear attack on Beijing.

  2. First the Author is living in Fools Paradise. Second when you openly put your plan for public reading. The Awarness and Counter Measure will ensure that the plan you have put will be a failure. As an Indian we do have respect for the Chinese people as fellow asians.

    However, your draconian law and lust for more land and power will take you to the path of destruction. Remember India is the land of Budha and Bodhidharma, who loved you and came to teach you humanity, kindness and self defence.

    India is still blessed by GOD. Indians suffered because most of them lost their tradition and followed the non vedic life style. But God will never let us down, as we still have humans following the vedic tradition and practices.

    In spite of Islam ruling most of the world and occupying India for 100 s of years. India still remains an HINDU country following the vedic principles. Once we start practising our Vedic trandition, the god themselves will come to fight our war.

    In any case , we are a nuclear state and developing advanced space weapons, in case we need to fight 2 enemies in one go. Please be assured your Idiotic leaders have already shot the bullet in their foot. Now India, US , Australia, Indonesia, Japan, Philipines, etc are alliance partners against chinese brutality.

    Once we help our fellow human beings like Baluchus, Pastunis towards freedom, as we helped bengalis, we will also help Tibetians , Mongolians, and Chinese muslims to restore their freedom from Chinese Brutes.

    Stop your Mind set, and hatred towards Hindustan or it will bring the Curse of God against you. We want to support a peaceful China and safe guard our chinese sisters from rape, sex slavery as they suffered under the british and japanese.

    We are very patient,but when we react it will be your death knell.

    Jai Hind

  3. The writer has been playing computer games too much. He is completely out to lunch. If there’s a change in Chinese territory, it will be Tibet going back to being Tibet. China will get its fat red fanny spanked in the South China Sea, and be forced to return to China. The other things mentioned in the article are pure hogwash. The writer wouldn’t even be a good science fiction writer.

  4. China is in no position to wage war against anyone , leave alone India. A few of the reasons are ”
    1) China is always at war with its own self : Fighting to become an economic superpower with investment lead growth, it has led itself into a Debt trap . All the growth that China presents is based on false figures. Most of the investment lead growth was in unproductive wasteful, inferior quality fixed assets like Ghost Cities, Roads and bridges to no where ,etc. Now it has ruined its stock exchange , its banking system , its environment , over capacity , Much of its resources are being wasted to sustain the wasteful assets it has created over time and china would continue to do so. All the hype is due to its huge foreign exchange reserves. But a careful study would reveal that the huge reserves that china boasts off is not all that ample to sustain the great fall of china when all the bubbles will start bursting.
    Economically China cant afford to wage a war and destroy all that it has built for so long. besides its one child policy has already made its each male citizen to now care for at least 11 people 4 grandparents 4 parents 2 husband and wife and at least 1 child . Can China afford to lose its invaluable male youth in war and destroy its economy ? NO WAY
    2) Talking about China’s Army. Chinese Soldiers spend mot of the time reciting allegiance to communist regime and not to their country and have absolutely no war experience. All they can do is fire on innocent civilians who wont fight back.They can do splendid march past but can they fire against an hardcore enemy on the battlement. LOL hard to believe.
    3) China has brought itself to such a situation where it has no friends in the entire world. All that China banks upon are countries like Russia , Iran and Pakistan , North Korea and there is not a single country who they can think of will side them in case of war. But for Pakistan , the other two russia and Iran will never side against India.

  5. No doubt china has development beyond imagination but they must not forget the truth that india is not alone in the world. But before that i foresee third world war . where china russia and usa with australia and europian union will wage war against isis. There will be fierce battle. Many would not believe it . buttime will prove .

  6. Bullshit dream of chines. India was the powerful airforce by 1962 but Nehru poor policy only resulted such loss hence don’t think as tiwan, Vietnam & Japan. If war start,Tibet will be independent!!!!

  7. The person writing this has completely put on the side political interests of other powers (US, Russia and European Union) within the Asia Pacific region. I am not saying that China is not likely to become a leading military power… it can!

    I’m saying that if China decides to have an open-war strategy such as this one, nations that have satellite countries and bases operating in them in this region will counter the Chinese threat. Wars are fought on ground later, they are first fought on business fronts and the diplomacy’s role comes first. If there is even a hint that China is beginning to expand it’s influence beyond what is in the interests of the US, Russia, India, Australia and the EU, they can easily form an alliance (even though US and Russia don’t get along, they will talk it over). So you don’t have to wait till a 6th war to use nuclear weapons, the threat will start to appear right after the first war.

  8. Chinese have seen Indian bravery till now. Go and ask Pakistan.
    When you came first time in 1962, you backstabbed us telling Hindi-Chini bhai bhai. So we became little uncareful.
    This time if you come we are already waiting for you.We will break China into so many pieces that your coming generation will take their entire lifetime to count.

  9. The author’s day time dream never got success. If China acted like Germany in world war 2, then the conseqence will be the same like the one Germany experienced after the world war. China have learn lesson from this. Further China has to think that it has taken 40 years to raise after indo-china war. Frther more all the other world powers are not tieing their hands and weapons when china assertively making war on other countries. Though india is not balancing its military power on par with china, it having suffient nuclear warheads and other delivery system to deter china in a second strike cababilities which make the china an unimagenary distruction. If the U.S and other world powers helped a little, then the damages will be irreparable to it. China econome is depending upon the world order. If inernatinernational countries boycot china’s market, the entire rise histroy will go to bottom of the pot posiion. The status of the chaines economy has weakened when Greace economy get worsen. In such a position the day time dream never worked out to China as written by the author. Moreover the u.s, russia, france, britain and other Eroupion countries also having much sophyfisticative weapons to severly deter china. It is to the china whether to live peacefully with the world or to have destruction by isolation.

  10. First wars will sink China. It will demoralize and deal a deadly blow to the over confident Communists in Beijing. Imagine consumer products not being sold and that favourable currency valuation of Yuan is suddenly withdrawn. Tons and tons of consumer products are piled up in factory warehouses with no buyer. US can in just give years can manufacture some of the products at home and outsource to countries in Asia and Latin America. That Beijing trade surplus will be history. Unemployment in China will sour. Street riots could very much sink Communist Party for ever.

    All the above without firing a shot. All it needs is a Beijing signal that they are ready to fight the said first war.

  11. the writer this article is idiot and nonsense india .agar China aur Pakistan dono taraf se karege to india ko USA Support karega aur ye mat bhule koi ki 2030 tak india ke khudh sare defence product bna lega aur nuclear weapon uske p[as bhi h agar hm marege to sabko leke marege hmare pas bhi itne nuclear weapon h ki china ur Pakistan jaise 5 countries ko ik sath khatam kar sakte h . To War to sochna bhi mat. Shanti h Jayda Achi h apni apni jagah par raho . Sabhi Countries yahi best h.

  12. The writer this article is simply idiot.China was never a super power & never will be.Do whatever you can. Any fight with any south Asian country will lead to nuclear war. China will suffer very heavy. It’s condition will be like Germany after ww2.China cant be a single country after 2025. It will disintegrate. Only you can not plan the things & war. We can do the same.

  13. This article seems more like the author’s fantasy than what is ought to happen. The mere fact that author mentions the use of nukes is proof enough of the author’s aggression and silliness. China is in conflict with nearly all the countries around it. well, what can you conclude??
    Its almost impossible that any of these wars will ever happen with the international peace keepers around . China is definitely more diplomatic than what is described here. The author is insulting his own country. the recent Crimea annexation by Russia has opened way for so many for so many sanctions on it. Fighting six wars with six different countries? you definitely don’t seem so intelligent to me.
    Don’t spread hatred bro. Bury the hatchet and get on with it. Spread love. we all are homo sapiens after all. Peace

  14. this artical which published in chinees paper is rubish! after 20 or 35 years situation remain the same as today…. time wil tell about power house. china will think twise before striking such a thing.

  15. i think this article author is………….mad dog…because this thing never happen at future…..india kick the china ass surely…………because india is a superb power in future asia …….

  16. India is an atomic power , if china want to commit suicide it can , it only need 10 atom bombs to destroy entire china and 3 to Pakistan, and India has more than 150 atom bombs (only known ) . So if china want to do adventure it can , and one thing I can assure ,all the war which china will fight after the war with India will be by ..stones and sticks coz noting will be left after the war with India.

  17. haha! What a silly Chinese fantasy!

    By 2045, the Chinese will be 60% old people, and they will have hundreds of millions of young men with no wives due to the one child policy.
    They will start their wars and send these angry young men out to loot & plunder. They will rape the local women and infuriate the world, who then quit buying Chinese products. Embargoes begin. China’s export economy has no one to buy its products. The economy falters and social unrest erupts.
    The Chinese naval adventures in the South China Sea do not go as planned. They invade the islands, but cannot re supply them as submarine warfare sends the Chinese fleet to the bottom of the sea. The troops begin to starve and are easily captured from the tiny islands with no place to hide.
    A humiliating prisoner exchange must be negotiated in which china must relinquish its claims of sovereignty.
    This does not go over well in the mainland, which is imploding under the glut of export goods with no overseas markets. Merchant shippers will not risk the blockade, and oil shipments become scarce. The Iranians join china, but suffer a naval catastrophe that leaves the straits of Hormuz clogged with mines and sunken vessels. Gulf oil to china is completely cut off. America has fuel to burn and runs to ground any maritime asset friendly to china.
    In china, things go from bad to worse. Old people are left to wither & die by a desperate regime that is fought in the lurch. They begin to euthanize old people for the purpose of not having to feed them. Many Chinese are outraged, and the country breaks down into civil war.
    Rocked to its core, china is easily overcome by its enemies, and all of its neighbors pick the carcass of every disputed acre. China, having lost a half billion of its people, is broken apart into ethnic regions & absorbed by its neighbors, leaving a broken & divided she’ll of what could have been…

    That, is a more likely version of what might happen, using a similar crystal ball ..,

  18. India has already starting building its strategy and poking China.
    >>$13 billon defense deals got green signal.
    >>India already placed advanced nuclear capable Brahmos missiles in Arunachal Pradesh and there is no defense technology available in this world to counter these missiles.
    >>Tied up with Vietnam in a deal to supply advanced patrolling vehicles. Also a project to extract oil from the waters.
    >>Tied up with US to deal with extrimists in PAK, infact plans to get POK back. So, forget about Pakistan as a front. Whatever China is doing in POK all the projects would come under Indian control. :)
    >> India also stepped up into space to get higher details of the borders and aid in communication for the armed forces.
    >>India is now also focusing on the eastern states, in building better forces and crushing the militant groups, including the incursions from Bangladesh.

    Thanks to the current govt under the leadership of Modi.

    So option 1 to break India into smaller states – not possible
    Option 2 Use pak as proxy – pak will be crushed by then.
    Option 3 Use direct military force – Its a lose – lose situation and will not be a win-lose situation at all. China knows this and if it has brain it will not rage into the war.

    If china has to attack India, it can only do it now for a possible victory (again not 100% sure victory). 10yrs down the line, it cannot even think of stepping in into the indian territory. You can see the current border situation with China. It had step back, And Modi gave a direct statement to XI in front of the international media.

    Its better to stay calm and mind own business. Everyone is alert now. Any misadventure can be costly. Will only take you back to stone age.

    • I would like to add on another idea here, though hypothetical.
      Looking at the relationship build between India and Vietnam, if China rages war against Vietnam, India might come to rescue and start poking, if China dares to look at India, Russia may poke on the other end. So, its a 3 sided attack on China which China wouldn’t expect and would not be ready. At this point it will have to step back which is tactically good for China rather than being aggressive.

  19. The writer must be drunk when he wrote this. China has a huge population to take care of. It cannot possibly go to war with any country, not to its advantage. Also, there’s no certainty that the Chinese economy will continue to grow and if so, instability will result within China.

  20. Goog think writer does know anything abot agni range of misiles. After the so called first war the whole world will be united against chini regime. Also writer is missing the disintegretion of pakistan which will happen before the above 1st war.

  21. What if they loose the very first one – the unification of Taiwan. Then there would be no need fight the rest of 2 to 6 wars.

    What is this paper, a scare tactics.

    What if in next twenty years, if others are sitting idle, Chinese build their war machine with second hand stolen technology but could not steal the processes, and economic miracle fizzles out as America and rest of the world stop buying Chinese consumer goods, what will happen then?

    Today as we see, China is made by America with a Trillion dollar imports and $500 billion a year FDI, what if this pipeline dries up? China would be lost. America can distribute consumer goods production to countries elsewhere, then Chinese would be left high and dry.

    No sir, these wars will never take place. China is too afraid to loose in the battle field and still too afraid to loose its market for consumer goods.

  22. The authour seems to be building castles in the air. He thinks only the author has brains to think strategically and other countries are puppets which would react one by one in case of war. Also, he has forgotten the fact that India has its finger on the nuclear button and Japan can anytime build one in case the need arises. Author needs to revisit its geography to understand that china is surrounded by the countries with which it plans to initiate aggression. If attacked simultaneously, it risks losing the land it has already occupied and suffer another 100 years of humiliation. Going by the authors thoughts, WW III can be a reality.

  23. China is kidding itself, it has surrounded itself in all 4 directions with enemies. Many of those enemies have a powerful godfather called the USA (like it or not they are still the world’s superpower), and then there are quasi-superpower Russia and regional superpower India (All three of them nuclear powers). China will be destroyed if all of its neighbors decide to gang up and give it a taste of its own medicine (with additional US support) after more than half a century of aggressive foreign policy and bullying.

  24. I think the real prize for china is taiwan – advanced economy and good american technology, mongolia – land mass and natural resources, and the lands lost to russia – natural resources especially siberian oil and gas. The other claims are pointless and a waste of time. China could almost double its land mass and living space for its people by pursuing these claims and they have good historical and legal regions. It would be great if they could pull it off….

  25. This us what Germany thought in world war 1 and 2 . We all know how it ended. All it takes to bring china to its knees is allied action from Europe Russia Taiwan Japan South East Asia India and the US. I’d like to see them fight surrounded, because I’m pretty sure the workd ain’t gonna watch this happen and get takedown one by one. And what if countries just block the energy supply , china will starve won’t it.

  26. It’s really funny dream. They can’t take back Taiwan. It’s already like another country. Ok,they might win Taiwan. But Vietnam? Vietnam is not some country you can easily win. we have seen this from war between USA and Vietnam. Then Indian and Pakistan…impossible. They are getting stronger and stronger. And with Japan? Japan is really “bully” country. (They always bullied korea and china,not other way around. Never in history) Then Mongolia! I understand,it was always their biggest dream. But after 2000 years ,and after thousands of wars between china and mongolia , Mongolia is still independent country. Funniest is Chinese are more than 1 billion and Mongolia has only 3 million population!! How they can be so weak, i don’t understand. In this situation they don’t have power against Russia. That is reality.

  27. Good Analysis ..nice Article to Future see what is best for Chinese warfare but this article is flavoured with Western ideology so i think Yes China will win these all small warfares ..but nevertheless will do it much in the Chinese style …& all with lots of stability and resilience to the Western powers trying to overthrow China by sitting near its borders all the time ( in western bases on the actual Old China land ) and interfering from outside into Asian issues thinking its going to do some good to the West …i think More than 50 Warfares are yet to be fought by the Nato countries & forces themselves in order to save the ” Western colonisation of the world ” along for the next 50 years …from various Muslim countries which it had took control and set up business to Fool them for the next 100 Years in its attempt of Nato colonisation of world again following the British ancestors as in the last era of colonisation startegies by the Western War-rooms……. They are going to face the music tough this time too …..lets see ..who wins ..the East or the West …. , Love .. Raj

  28. All the Political parties esp. the Left Parties-ie the CPI,CPM etc should read & Ponder deeply on this article !! The Indian Political & Bureaucratic Establishment need to wake up fast & take proper advice from Indian Generals about preparing for China’s demands !! In 1960 or so Late F.M. Sam Maneckshaw as Commandant of the Defence Services Staff college-Wellington openly taught the Officers that China is the No. 1 enemy of India in spite of the Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai atmosphere in Delhi. For this & other Frivolous matters a Court of Enquiry was instituted against him-To deny him Promotion to Lt.General & prepare the way for his Rival-Lt.Genl. B.M.Kaul [ cousin of Nehru ] to supersede him & subsequently become the future army chief…Fortune favours the brave & truth ultimately manifested in the 1962 war.. Even Sardar Patel had warned Nehru about China after its annexation of Tibet, but the Indian Establishment remained sleeping..

  29. They have got hope in hell
    firstly — they will meet the same fate as USSR see how happy they are now
    secondly — if japan decides china will again become a colony
    thirdly — India extends from Hindu Kush to Bangladesh (like Europe it is not just Hindustan) and are sure to meet its end in Afghanistan

  30. This article clearly publicizes the suspected territorial ambitions of China. However the war with India is likely to happen much earlier and not just for southern tibet (Arunachal Pradesh). China has other terrotorial conflicts with India. Mao, the founding father of Communist China had described Tibet as the palm and Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh as it fingers. So China will not just claim Arunachal Pradesh but also the other “4 fingers”. There is regular incursions or transgressions as described by India in Ladhak. Nepal is defacto a Chinese colony now. China is silent on Sikkim for the time being, since they have recognized it as part of India, in exchange of India’s recognition of Tibet. Bhutan is slowly being forced to establish diplomatic relationship. The boundary dispute with Bhutan is still unresolved. It is very clear that China is trying to disintegrate India by supporting Pakistan and terro outfits like ULFA (directly) and Maoist (through Nepal). However the weak political leadership and lack of national security & strategic thinking in the political class, has made the military, paramilitary, state police, central police and intelligence agencies to be left decades behind China and even other neighbouring countries. Further this is also aggregated by Pakistan centric policies and defence spending. Even though this is slowly changing, lot needs to be done. We should not have Pakistan or China centric policies. We should have holistic strategic policy, with focus on securing India’s terrotorial integrity, eliminating internal security threats, rapid economic development, non division of demography based on religion, caste or linguistic basis, water security, energy security and reunification of India. Yes, reunification of India is the only long term solution. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Tibet, Sri Lanka and Maldives should be made part of India over the next few decades. This can be done through overt or covert means.

  31. Looks like the british left but the PRC people are still doing a lot of Psychedelic Drugs, they still blame the british for getting them addicted. It makes them believe that the world is theirs(Chinas) and and will be theirs alone soon and every one else was left behind by the british and had no existance anywhere in place or time.
    It is high time people of PRC get of their addiction and start living life like rest of the world.

  32. The author has done a good job of outlining the geopolitical interests of China. It is likely that there may be other items that can be added to the list. For the non-China world, it is equally important to understand that nearly all wars are fought because the nations involved start a war based on two premises. One, it decides that war is the only option to protect it’s vital interests and second, consider capable and resourceful to win the war. The two go hand in hand. It is up to the non-China nations to deny her the second premise. United States, Japan, India, Australia and other nations of Asia must form a NATO like alliance in the Pacific with urgency. Now is the time to get to work and not when China has transferred it’s trillion dollar surpluses every year from exports to US and Europe into growing a military machine larger than any other nation in the world.

  33. well it’s a bullshit . “china will rise & other countries will lag behind” what a foolish thought , really hats off . from my point of view it’s a day dreaming .chinese equipments are good for nothing . they can’t take arunachal pradesh from us & war with russia is awesome , i think they don’t know about the facts russia has max number of nukes in the whole world & US will be way ahead of them . stealing design & reverse engineering wont give them Superiority in technology .. sure it will help them but not gonna make them master . their fighter jets are good for nothing nobody buys them in the whole world . one day they will claim every country by saying that ” everybody loves chinese food ” noodles n all . IT’S A BULLSHIT .

More Comments Loader Loading Comments