Indian Defence Review

After another massive virus outbreak in China, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi (called ‘silver fox’ in China) ventured out to visit South Asian countries. The Chinese media talked about his proposed visit to Pakistan but in the case of India  mentioned that Wang’s visit to India, if confirmed, could be the highest-level visit of a Chinese official to India since the COVID-19 pandemic and the border clashes.

Clearly, mission of the silver fox was to explore fresh avenues to promote interests of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict while US President Joe Biden says he is building a “new world order” – whites (Ku Klux Klan and Nazis) versus the rest of the world. Alignments too would change with Biden transforming democratic America into a Global Autocracy. 

Wang first visited Pakistan where he was the ‘Guest of Honour’ at the OIC meet on Kashmir hosted by Prime Minister Imran Khan. After the keynote rant by Prime Minister Imran Khan comparing Kashmir with the Palestine issue and expressing disappointment over the lack of support from the OIC, Wang addressed the audience by saying, “On the Kashmir issue, we have once again heard the call of many Islamic friends. China shares the same aspiration.” Naturally, India slammed the fox for meddling in India’s internal affairs.  

At a joint conference with Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi in Islamabad on March 22, Wang said China and Pakistan should strengthen coordination on international and regional issues such as Afghanistan and Ukraine, practice true multilateralism and oppose power politics, bullying and unilateral sanctions, adding that that China-Pakistan are committed to enhancing strategic coordination and pragmatic cooperation for a shared future to bring regional peace, stability and prosperity.

Wang further said that China will “support Pakistan in defending its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity” and called on political parties in Pakistan to strengthen cooperation and unity to ensure development and stability in the country. He talked of the CPEC plus other joint projects and appreciated Pakistani efforts to strengthen the security of Chinese personnel and projects in Pakistan.

Wang next made a surprise visit to Afghanistan, his first since Taliban took power, where he met the acting foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and acting deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. He talked of respecting everything Afghan, including Taliban being people’s choice (?) and said that “China never interferes in Afghanistan’s internal affairs, never seeks any self-interest in Afghanistan, and never seeks the so-called sphere of influence.” He expressed desire to continue developing friendship with Afghanistan on the basis of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence.

With Muttaqi, Wang discussed trade, visas, mining and Afghanistan’s role in the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Wang also wanted Afghanistan to participate in the third foreign ministers’ meeting of countries neighboring Afghanistan being hosted in Beijing later this month.  Afghanistan did not attend the previous two such meetings in Pakistan (September 2021) in Iran (October 2021). The Taliban foreign ministry has now confirmed that Muttaqi will attend the third meeting in Beijing.

China eyes the $1-2 trillion oil and mineral reserves in Afghanistan including the large Lithium deposits that are used in electric vehicles. In addition, it wants to get through its BRI, make money through reconstruction and to establish air base (s) in Afghanistan. But Beijing is wary of the threat to the Chinese in Afghanistan because of the anger in the Taliban, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other terrorist organizations over its treatment of the Uighur and Muslims in Xinjiang. China cannot ask the Taliban to protect Chinese nationals in Afghanistan, as it demands in Pakistan. That is why Wang’s visit was unannounced fearing possible terrorist attack.  

Wang landed in India on March 24, fully aware his stupid remarks in Pakistan over Kashmir had annoyed New Delhi, and met NSA Ajit Doval the same day, Doval and Wang are Special Representatives of leaders of their countries for resolution of the boundary issue, though there have been no talks for the past two years; the 22^nd round of talks between them (last round) was held in December 2019. On March 25, Wang had a three-hours long meeting with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar wherein both agreed on the need for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and return to diplomacy and dialogue to defuse the conflict.

At a media briefing later, Jaishankar said, “Wang Yi presented the Chinese understanding, the Chinese view of the situation developed there and the developments pertaining to it, and I presented the Indian view. I think, the Indian view, many of you may have heard me speak about it yesterday in Parliament as well. And obviously, what he said was his view and what I said was my view, but where we had a common element was that both of us agreed on the importance of an immediate ceasefire as well as a return to diplomacy and dialogue.”

Jaishankar confirmed that Quad and the Indo-Pacific were not discussed but said, “We also spent some time on multilateral issues. I emphasized the need to take forward the long-overdue reform of the UN system, including the Security Council.”

Most importantly, Jaishanker told media, “I was very honest in my discussions with the Chinese Foreign Minister…..The frictions and tensions that arise from China’s deployments since April 2020 cannot be reconciled with a normal relationship….We have had 15 rounds of talks between Senior Commanders and progress has been achieved on several friction points from the disengagement perspective. This needs to be taken forward since the completion of disengagement is necessary for discussions on de-escalation to take place.”

How Wang responded to the above during the meeting is not known but before Wang’s visit, Chinese media quoted Qian Feng, National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University, saying the visit will continue the positive momentum achieved at the 15th round of bilateral commander-level border talks and further warming of diplomatic relations that were under the shadow of the clashes. This reflects China’s subterfuge since there has been no forward movement in the 13^th, 14^th and 15^th Corps Commander-level talks in Eastern Ladakh. This leads to the conclusion that China wants India to treat the intrusions it made in Ladakh during 2020 fait accompli. That is why China has been branding India as the “aggressor” from day one and continues to do so.

The statement by the Chinese ministry of foreign affairs on Wang’s visit played down the standoff, saying, “Wang Yi said that as mature and rational major developing countries, China and India should place the boundary issue in a proper position in the bilateral relationship, and should not use the definition of the boundary issue or even affect the overall development of the bilateral relationship”. The statement used the usual flowery language of the need for peace, tranquility, normalized management and control on the basis of disengagement, effective measures to prevent misunderstandings/misjudgments and blah-blah, plus stress on multilateralism.

The geopolitical upheaval and realignments caused by the Ukraine conflict is an ideal opportunity for a mutually agreeably India-China border settlement. But not only is China not interested, it may well be planning another flare up at our borders buoyed by western pussyfooting in Ukraine and North Korea cocking a snook at the US. Besides, China is more than happy if it continues to profit by $100 billion or so annually through bilateral trade with India.     

Wang possibly wanted to explore if Prime Minister Narendra Modi would attend the BRICS summit that China is to hold later this year. The summit is being held in-person, not virtually, and PM Modi not attending it would mean loss of face to China, particularly Xi Jinping who in the 20th National Congress of the CCP later this year is seeking a third presidential tenure. The forthcoming BRICS summit will naturally discuss the geopolitical situation emerging from the Ukraine crisis, its complexities and global re-alignments. Therefore, Indian participation in the forthcoming BRICS summit is considered essential by China. India may or may not participate in the BRICS summit but Jaishankar’s blunt statement on the situation in Eastern Ladakh would have certainly sown grave doubts in Wang’s mind.

From India, Wang went to Nepal where he met Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and his Nepalese counterpart Narayan Khadka. Both sides signed nine memorandums of understanding including one on the cross-border railway, which is an important component of the Trans-Himalayan multi dimensional connectivity network between China and Nepal. The cross border railway was incorporated into China’s BRI in April 2019.

A cross-section opines that India should not have accepted the visit request of Wang Yi. But diplomatic dialogue generally does continue in conflict though the level may be downgraded. In this context, perhaps Wang’s meeting at the Ministry of External Affairs could have been initially commenced by a junior officer, with Jaishankar walking in later. That would have conveyed a strong signal to the fox – who is actually a snake in disguise. There is little doubt that China will remain our enemy number one in the foreseeable future and it just cannot be trusted.