Indian Defence Review

MK Dhar, former Joint Director IB wrote in his book ‘Open Secrets – India’s Intelligence Unveiled’ published in 2005, “Way back in 1992-93 ….the process of ‘transplanting armed modules’ in the heartland of India had started taking cognizable shape. Some of these cells were identified in Assam, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Kota/Ajmer region of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala. SIMI had already started deputing ‘volunteers’ to Pakistan for training along with the Mujahideen, Taliban and Al Qaeda cadres. They established firm linkages with Islamic Chhatra Shibir, Al Qaeda affiliated HUJI, Al Badr, Al Jihad and other organizations in Bangladesh …were trained in facilities located inside Bangladesh and under the very noses of DGFI and BDR”.  Has the hold of the Indian Fai Mafia become so strong in the Indian State that the Government has remained silent on such diabolical designs of Pakistan?

Ayesha Siddiqa, famous Pakistani author wrote in her book ‘Military Inc’ in 2007 that the Pakistani military-industrial-corporate was already $ 20 billion strong. There is no way that the Pakistani military will want peace on her borders especially with India. Pakistani military has infiltrated every sector of power and administration in Pakistan and there is absolutely no question of their letting go by having peace on the borders because that will imply the army’s return to the barracks. If there is any doubt about the puppet democracy in Pakistan, listen to Agha H Amin, defence analyst and former Pakistan Army officer who writes, “Utopians in India are jubilant that Pakistan has made peace with India. Nothing in reality can be farther from the truth. …..  Pakistan’s apparent shift is merely a tactical response to extreme confrontation with the US over perceived US view that Pakistan is playing a double game in Afghanistan…. The real picture of true intentions of the Pakistani military will emerge when the US withdraws from Afghanistan. This will be the time when the Russians, Iranians and Indians will have no choice but to support the Northern Alliance against Pakistan sponsored Taliban who regard all Shias, Ismailis, Non-Pashtuns, moderate Pashtuns as infidels who deserve to be massacred. ……. Pakistani politicians will remain the puppets of the military that they have been since 1977. Terrorism will remain a tool of foreign policy while the Pakistani military runs the Pakistani state under a facade of PPP or PML or Tehrik i Insaaf.”

The fact that the Pakistani Military has also hijacked the judiciary was quite apparent during the memogate scandal. It is further reinforced by the current situation in Pakistan and Qadri rooting to install the military as ‘interim’ government knowing full well ‘interim’ in Pakistan represents couple of years. Note the last December order of the Supreme Court of Pakistan for delimitation of constituencies and door-to-door verification of voters with the help of the Pakistan Army, followed by Election Commission of Pakistan reiterating the army be deployed in all polling stations during the upcoming general elections and continue being deployed until results were announced. Why should a country that has Provincial Police in its Provinces and Para Military Forces numbering some 304,000 personnel resort to army deployment for elections, particularly ‘door-to-door verification of voters’, when the country itself claims to be a victim of terrorism and the army’s hands are purportedly full fighting terrorists including in FATA, Baluchistan and elsewhere. The message portrayed is that the country would not like to take any chances in conducting free and fair elections. The actual fact is that the military would brook no chances in losing its stranglehold on the country.

Let us not have any hallucinations that the Pakistani Military is on board with the civilian government in Pakistan. The reverse is true and this is an undeniable fact and this equation unlikely to change despite what what is conveyed to Indians during kebab parties, poetry and display of camaraderie at Aman Ki Asha banquets. Increased radicalization of Pakistan, US/NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan and the China-Pakistan nexus will only embolden the Pakistani Army further.   Agha H Amin says, “There is no doubt that Pakistan will be a semi autonomous Chinese province by 2030 or so. …. Pakistani Baluchistan by 2030 would be a completely Chinese run show… This means that Pakistan’s political economy of exporting terrorism as a foreign policy tool, massive corruption at home and the resultant ever growing reservoir of economically deprived youngsters who will fill ranks of extremists and suicide bombers will continue.” Pakistani Army will always operate at its own wavelength come what may. Remember, Zardari on assuming Presidency ordered the ISI to be brought under the Ministry of Interior but the military made him eat his words within 24 hours.

The million dollar question, however, is when will the Indian State will wake up to ground realities of Pakistan? Isn’t it a shame that Afghan scholars visiting India last year recommended that India should show some spunk in dealing with Pakistan. This was covered prominently in our media but glossed over courtesy Indian Fai Mafia? So what do we do about this cross border incident? It is quite simple actually. The porosity of the LC is not one way. Such incidents must be ‘quietly’ replied ‘with interest’ in the same coin. Raise interest levels till the message goes home. Let the military handle this, which they are fully capable of. A dirty war must have a commensurate response. Respond to deniability with deniability. You can humour Pakistan’s puppet government but recognize efforts by the Pakistani State to balkanize India. What TV debates have happened cannot be reversed but don’t get these jokers time and again who are brazenly arrogant and in denial. We should have learnt the lesson after Rehman Malik’s recent gibberish act, who reportedly was invited despite advice not to do so. The hounds must be set upon the hardcore Hurriyat, who are Pakistani underdogs, to find out what they were conniving with Hafiz Saeed and the ISI. Needless to mention that if they were Chinese or Pakistani nationals and indulged in this type of anti national elements, their bones would have melted long since. If they are so enamoured with Pakistan, they can be pushed across the LC.

Amongst the various comments by Pakistani participants on TV, the taunt of Javed needs to be taken note of wherein he dared India to exercise its war option, implement the cold start doctrine and activate the IRGs. War is an option alright despite the nuclear sabre rattling by Pakistan but should be the last option as it will be a setback to our economy. Calling the nuclear bluff of Pakistan is hardly a problem but that is irrelevant. The aim should be to achieve our objectives without fighting a war. Our current policy, recently scripted by Dr Subhash Kapila in South Asia Analysis is, “Delhi’s Pakistan policy has all the emotional intensity of a battered wife with a karmic commitment to marriage. Justice must surrender to appeasement in the pursuit of some higher purpose.” This must change. Both China and Pakistan understand and respect power. Inadequate equipping of our military and voids in defence preparedness are because of the overall misreading of Chinese and Pakistani intentions by our political leadership and bureaucratic intransigence arising from personal hallucinations of peace akin to 1962.

While naval and economic blockades are options, the glaring void in India is our failure to establish a deterrent to irregular war despite having considerable number of Special Forces. Diplomacy and conventional forces by themselves are not the answer against irregular forces. We should have learnt this from the Parliament attack and 26/11. We continue to have glaring intelligence voids of areas of our strategic interest right from the 1950’s to date, recent example being discovery of some 11,000 Chinese in Pakistan / POK when reported by New York Times. The China-Pakistan nexus goes back to early 1960s. FS Aijazuddin writes in his book ‘From a Head, through a Head, to a Head’ published in Karachi thus, “Zhou-en-Lai suggested to Ayub Khan that Pakistan should prepare for prolonged conflict with India instead of short – term wars. He advised Pakistan to raise a Militia Force to act behind enemy lines”. This Pakistani militia is the jihadis of today, nurtured over the years with armed modules embedded pan India from early 1990s, as described by MK Dhar above.

We need to remember that Special Forces do not create resistance movements but advice, train and assist resistance movements already in existence. They are ideally suited to control fault lines of the adversaries without any signatures or with ambiguous signatures. That is what Pakistan is doing today through her proxies. We must employ our Special Forces strategically to control enemy fault lines. Admittedly, there may be a gestation period but certainly not that huge besides in the current age ideas and money can both be transferred digitally. There is urgent need to develop publicized overt capabilities and deniable covert capabilities as deterrence against irregular war thrust upon us. The only way Pakistan will stop its proxy war is when it becomes apparent that Baluchistan, Sindh, Baltistan can also splinter. There are just too many fault lines in Pakistan and one can actually pick and choose.

The government would do well to restructure the higher defence set up discounting the Indian Fai Mafia and bureaucratic resistance bringing the military squarely in as the major player. As for the Indian Fai Mafia, they might feel secure for the time being due to complicity at highest echelons and hold on the intelligence / investigating agencies but it would be wise for them to realize that the above 65 percent of India’s youth that is of 35 years and below is mostly connected and becoming more and aware. They might as well give up these anti-national activities before they are identified and consigned to history.