Indian Defence Review

The Interior Minister of Pakistan, Mr Rehman Malik meeting the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, in New Delhi

“PM gives ‘tough message’ to Pakistan” says the media. Did he by the meek remark of ‘business cannot be as usual’, delivered in characteristic apologetic body language? The fact this message was give after so many days speaks for itself. How many such messages has India given – after Parliament attack, serial blasts, 26/11 Mumbai terrorist strike and what have you? Scant regard the hierarchy gives to the rank and file of the armed forces and the central armed police forces is crystal and how the armed forces are sidelined and held on a leash is no secret either. Government orchestration of statements of Service Chiefs is further proof. First the Air Force Chief is allowed to talk of other options – any different from Parliament attack and 26/11?

Then after an eternity, the Army Chief is permitted to ‘talk tough’ with no option left with mandatory Army Day message to be broadcast but not before he is thoroughly lambasted on Facebook and Twitter for hiding under the desk, not making a statement, not visiting the martyrs family and someone even posting an article titled ‘Required – Service Chiefs with Balls’. Was this delay by design to rub the nose of the military in mud further and keep them under the rod? Would anyone ask the pundits why the Naval Chief, who recently stated quite logically that the Navy can send warships to Asia Pacific to safeguard our interests, has not been permitted a statement? Have we not effectively blockaded Pakistan from sea earlier? Now please don’t reply in the nonsensical that Service Chiefs can make any statements they want. This farce can’t work anymore!

The issue in any case is too frivolous for the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces to make a national broadcast. The only time the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces did so was in the wake of Operation Blue Star although he himself as Home Minister India was entertaining, arming and financing terrorists, an act that got him the Presidency as the Congress thought it best to kick him upstairs and ensconce him the regal surroundings of the President’s estate.

Notice initial response of the government even days after Pakistan’s barbaric act – Salman Khurshid saying that we have made considerable bilateral progress and must continue with the CBMs. What progress are we talking about – liberalization of visa regime after 500 Pakistani spectators witnessing an Indo-Pak cricket match at Mohali a few years back went underground and never traced or Pakistan not granting MFN status to India despite India having done so years back. Salman Khurshid’s message clearly pointed to ‘business as usual’ despite Pakistan’s despicable deed. It was only after the national outburst indicating categorically that enough was enough and opposition parties called for revenge that Manmohan Singh emerged from hibernation to say “it can’t be business as usual.” The hierarchy obviously calculated the vote bank slipping and so Manmohan Singh’s ‘tough message’ but not without orchestrating editorials in dailies simultaneously that the answer is ‘business as usual’. Do you notice any difference in the timing of government response from the Nirbhaya’s case?

Why is it that while we have been telling the USA all these years that Pakistan is playing a double game, we have perpetually ignored Pakistan’s double game against India? Are the peacenik Sheikh Chillies in the government really unaware of the ground realities or is there something more sinister under the façade? The former is of course possible with the dysfunctional higher defence set up in India, deliberately not being corrected. Ask the NSA where does he get his military inputs and he will tell you point blank the National Security Council. Can you believe that he takes no inputs from the military? Would foreign countries not marvel at such ingenuity? Naturally, we don’t have any national security strategy. Then, all the intelligence agencies are busy investigating dossiers of the opposition parties. Little wonder the government has been stating since 2010 that the Maoist insurgency will be resolved in next two-three years.

How long will the so called peacenik Sheikh Chillies in the government cover their backs under the façade of ‘not in sync with ground realities’ in this age of globalization and connectivity? It is time to flip and focus on the other side of the coin in real earnest. If the FBI caught onto Ghulam Mohammed Fai only in only 2011 after he had transferred $350 million ISI funds into US to morph perceptions in Pakistan’s favour, should there be any doubt to the possibility of scores of Fai’s in India, in government and outside, and many times the $350 millions pumped in by the ISI with advantage that the money can go directly into ‘front’ accounts abroad.

No wonder Musharraf was considered the best bet for India and still referred to by many in media. Why this snake still is called for leadership summits in India after stabbing us in the back in Kargil, threatening ‘many more’ Kargils and most awarding rupees one lakh to Ilyas Kasmiri for presenting him the severed head of an Indian soldier, latter reported in Pakistani vernacular media? Lt. Gen. Shahid Aziz (Retd), former Corps Commander of Lahore recently wrote about Kargil, “The whole truth about Kargil is yet to be known….. It was a total disaster….. We didn’t pre-empt anything; nothing was on the cards. I was then heading the Analysis Wing of Inter Services Intelligence ……Our clearly expressed intent was to cut the supply line to Siachen and force the Indians to pull out…… There were no mujahideen, only taped wireless messages, which fooled no one. Our soldiers ……… the boys were comforted by their commander’s assessment that no serious response would come…. Cut off and forsaken, our posts started collapsing one after the other, though the General (Musharraf) publicly denied it.” So if Nawaz Sharif had no idea what Musharraf’s army was doing in Kargil across the LC, how do you expect Madam Hina Rabbani  to know what Kayani’s army is doing on the LC ?

Do we still want to invite this rodent named Musharraf who is a fugitive in Pakistan with warrant in his name and who should actually be tried for war crimes both in Pakistan and India; in Pakistan post the exposure by Lt. Gen. Shahid Aziz and for refusing to take back bodies of his own soldiers killed in Kargil on the plea they were mujahedeen and in India because of the horrific torture and killing of Captain Saurabh Kalia and his patrol, as well as Squadron Leader Ajay Ahuja, and awarding rupees one lakh to Ilyas Kasmiri for presenting him the severed head of an Indian soldier? Will the TRP hungry media channels cultivate some shame and stop dancing to the tunes of the Indian Fai Mafia?

Obviously the Fai Mafia of India has no inhibition of selling their motherland. That is why the largess being doled out to Pakistan despite continued LC violations, infiltration, terrorism, killing and threatening panchayat members in J&K, permitting hard core hurriyat members to frequent Pakistani embassy in Delhi, visas granted to them to connive with radical mullah Hafiz Saeed, Hurriyat’s Geelani not questioned on his hate India blog, IB funding the Hurriyat without reference to the Army, 40 terrorist training camps running full swing in Pakistan/POK and Delhi’s inaction all these years on non-bailable warrants issued against  Akbaruddin Owaisi in 2005. That is why the Track II Team does the groundwork to withdraw from Siachen. If the Indian Fai Mafia was not involved, why the hesitation to disclose who the Indian coordinator to this sordid scheme is and why not even an official statement. Are he and his mentors on payroll of the ISI? How come, CIA moles in India have been exposed in the past but ISI moles never exposed beyond some low level operatives selling military secrets?

The predictable US reaction to Pakistan’s barbarianism has been restricted to “both sides should show restraint” though post 9/11, the US faked nukes in Iraq to invade that country and is morphing perceptions now about Bashar Assad being on the verge of unleashing chemical weapons. The least help the US could have provided in the present instance is proof of Pakistani-militay-LeT links which Pakistan is implicitly denying. The US has ample proof of this including solid evidence provided by David Coleman Headley who admits his complicity in the 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attacks. Pakistan’s denial is obvious especially with the 26/11 evidence pointing the finger directly at Pakistani Military-ISI-LeT combine. A simple statement by the US at this point of time would make all the difference.

What is surprising is that Indian authorities also did not draw the attention to taped messages of 26/11 and evidence provided by David Coleman Headley – under pressure from Indian Fai Mafia? The fact is that US is unlikely to interfere against any terrorist organization that does not constitute a threat to the US itself and Pakistan is sly enough to assure both US and China that the vipers from her Devil’s Hatchery will not strike them. Significantly, Ashley J Tellis wrote in March 2012, “While the Pakistani Army and its current leadership still firmly oppose any LeT attack on the US, any unraveling of the US-Pakistan relationship that intensifies the adversarial sentiments on both sides would only strengthen the more extreme constituencies supporting LeT within the army.” He adds, “The only reasonable objective for the US is the permanent evisceration of LeT and other vicious South Asian terrorist groups – with Pakistani cooperation if possible, but without if necessary.” The fact is that despite a so called ban, if LeT is can undertake both overt and anti-India activities freely, it is because the Pakistan military has its sympathies with terrorist organizations.

This barbaric act of Pakistan was not the first one and neither the denial. How does one expect civility from a military in the first place when they are organizing institutionalized killings of Shias in their own country in cahoots with terrorist organizations? The outcome of the flag meeting was known in advance with Hina Rabbani (military-ISI mascot, as all politicians and bureaucrats of Pakistan) denied any complicity of Pakistani Army. The arrogance and counter charges of Pakistani officials and speakers participating in TV debates was also not a surprise since denial, deceit and ambiguity has been the hallmark of Pakistan’s policy for past several years. Yet the Indian Fai Mafia has ensured that the government has never even issued a white paper on Pakistan’s proxy against India. Terrorism in J&K apart, intelligence reports exist of LeT being covert arm of Pakistan military-ISI, Pakistan spawning, arming and directing Indian Mujahidin (IM), LeT having facilitated mine/IED training of Maoists by LTTE, LeT operatives attending Maoists meeting since past two years and LeT arming and training the Popular Front of India (PFI) in Kerala.

MK Dhar, former Joint Director IB wrote in his book ‘Open Secrets – India’s Intelligence Unveiled’ published in 2005, “Way back in 1992-93 ….the process of ‘transplanting armed modules’ in the heartland of India had started taking cognizable shape. Some of these cells were identified in Assam, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Kota/Ajmer region of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala. SIMI had already started deputing ‘volunteers’ to Pakistan for training along with the Mujahideen, Taliban and Al Qaeda cadres. They established firm linkages with Islamic Chhatra Shibir, Al Qaeda affiliated HUJI, Al Badr, Al Jihad and other organizations in Bangladesh …were trained in facilities located inside Bangladesh and under the very noses of DGFI and BDR”.  Has the hold of the Indian Fai Mafia become so strong in the Indian State that the Government has remained silent on such diabolical designs of Pakistan?

Ayesha Siddiqa, famous Pakistani author wrote in her book ‘Military Inc’ in 2007 that the Pakistani military-industrial-corporate was already $ 20 billion strong. There is no way that the Pakistani military will want peace on her borders especially with India. Pakistani military has infiltrated every sector of power and administration in Pakistan and there is absolutely no question of their letting go by having peace on the borders because that will imply the army’s return to the barracks. If there is any doubt about the puppet democracy in Pakistan, listen to Agha H Amin, defence analyst and former Pakistan Army officer who writes, “Utopians in India are jubilant that Pakistan has made peace with India. Nothing in reality can be farther from the truth. …..  Pakistan’s apparent shift is merely a tactical response to extreme confrontation with the US over perceived US view that Pakistan is playing a double game in Afghanistan…. The real picture of true intentions of the Pakistani military will emerge when the US withdraws from Afghanistan. This will be the time when the Russians, Iranians and Indians will have no choice but to support the Northern Alliance against Pakistan sponsored Taliban who regard all Shias, Ismailis, Non-Pashtuns, moderate Pashtuns as infidels who deserve to be massacred. ……. Pakistani politicians will remain the puppets of the military that they have been since 1977. Terrorism will remain a tool of foreign policy while the Pakistani military runs the Pakistani state under a facade of PPP or PML or Tehrik i Insaaf.”

The fact that the Pakistani Military has also hijacked the judiciary was quite apparent during the memogate scandal. It is further reinforced by the current situation in Pakistan and Qadri rooting to install the military as ‘interim’ government knowing full well ‘interim’ in Pakistan represents couple of years. Note the last December order of the Supreme Court of Pakistan for delimitation of constituencies and door-to-door verification of voters with the help of the Pakistan Army, followed by Election Commission of Pakistan reiterating the army be deployed in all polling stations during the upcoming general elections and continue being deployed until results were announced. Why should a country that has Provincial Police in its Provinces and Para Military Forces numbering some 304,000 personnel resort to army deployment for elections, particularly ‘door-to-door verification of voters’, when the country itself claims to be a victim of terrorism and the army’s hands are purportedly full fighting terrorists including in FATA, Baluchistan and elsewhere. The message portrayed is that the country would not like to take any chances in conducting free and fair elections. The actual fact is that the military would brook no chances in losing its stranglehold on the country.

Let us not have any hallucinations that the Pakistani Military is on board with the civilian government in Pakistan. The reverse is true and this is an undeniable fact and this equation unlikely to change despite what what is conveyed to Indians during kebab parties, poetry and display of camaraderie at Aman Ki Asha banquets. Increased radicalization of Pakistan, US/NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan and the China-Pakistan nexus will only embolden the Pakistani Army further.   Agha H Amin says, “There is no doubt that Pakistan will be a semi autonomous Chinese province by 2030 or so. …. Pakistani Baluchistan by 2030 would be a completely Chinese run show… This means that Pakistan’s political economy of exporting terrorism as a foreign policy tool, massive corruption at home and the resultant ever growing reservoir of economically deprived youngsters who will fill ranks of extremists and suicide bombers will continue.” Pakistani Army will always operate at its own wavelength come what may. Remember, Zardari on assuming Presidency ordered the ISI to be brought under the Ministry of Interior but the military made him eat his words within 24 hours.

The million dollar question, however, is when will the Indian State will wake up to ground realities of Pakistan? Isn’t it a shame that Afghan scholars visiting India last year recommended that India should show some spunk in dealing with Pakistan. This was covered prominently in our media but glossed over courtesy Indian Fai Mafia? So what do we do about this cross border incident? It is quite simple actually. The porosity of the LC is not one way. Such incidents must be ‘quietly’ replied ‘with interest’ in the same coin. Raise interest levels till the message goes home. Let the military handle this, which they are fully capable of. A dirty war must have a commensurate response. Respond to deniability with deniability. You can humour Pakistan’s puppet government but recognize efforts by the Pakistani State to balkanize India. What TV debates have happened cannot be reversed but don’t get these jokers time and again who are brazenly arrogant and in denial. We should have learnt the lesson after Rehman Malik’s recent gibberish act, who reportedly was invited despite advice not to do so. The hounds must be set upon the hardcore Hurriyat, who are Pakistani underdogs, to find out what they were conniving with Hafiz Saeed and the ISI. Needless to mention that if they were Chinese or Pakistani nationals and indulged in this type of anti national elements, their bones would have melted long since. If they are so enamoured with Pakistan, they can be pushed across the LC.

Amongst the various comments by Pakistani participants on TV, the taunt of Javed needs to be taken note of wherein he dared India to exercise its war option, implement the cold start doctrine and activate the IRGs. War is an option alright despite the nuclear sabre rattling by Pakistan but should be the last option as it will be a setback to our economy. Calling the nuclear bluff of Pakistan is hardly a problem but that is irrelevant. The aim should be to achieve our objectives without fighting a war. Our current policy, recently scripted by Dr Subhash Kapila in South Asia Analysis is, “Delhi’s Pakistan policy has all the emotional intensity of a battered wife with a karmic commitment to marriage. Justice must surrender to appeasement in the pursuit of some higher purpose.” This must change. Both China and Pakistan understand and respect power. Inadequate equipping of our military and voids in defence preparedness are because of the overall misreading of Chinese and Pakistani intentions by our political leadership and bureaucratic intransigence arising from personal hallucinations of peace akin to 1962.

While naval and economic blockades are options, the glaring void in India is our failure to establish a deterrent to irregular war despite having considerable number of Special Forces. Diplomacy and conventional forces by themselves are not the answer against irregular forces. We should have learnt this from the Parliament attack and 26/11. We continue to have glaring intelligence voids of areas of our strategic interest right from the 1950’s to date, recent example being discovery of some 11,000 Chinese in Pakistan / POK when reported by New York Times. The China-Pakistan nexus goes back to early 1960s. FS Aijazuddin writes in his book ‘From a Head, through a Head, to a Head’ published in Karachi thus, “Zhou-en-Lai suggested to Ayub Khan that Pakistan should prepare for prolonged conflict with India instead of short – term wars. He advised Pakistan to raise a Militia Force to act behind enemy lines”. This Pakistani militia is the jihadis of today, nurtured over the years with armed modules embedded pan India from early 1990s, as described by MK Dhar above.

We need to remember that Special Forces do not create resistance movements but advice, train and assist resistance movements already in existence. They are ideally suited to control fault lines of the adversaries without any signatures or with ambiguous signatures. That is what Pakistan is doing today through her proxies. We must employ our Special Forces strategically to control enemy fault lines. Admittedly, there may be a gestation period but certainly not that huge besides in the current age ideas and money can both be transferred digitally. There is urgent need to develop publicized overt capabilities and deniable covert capabilities as deterrence against irregular war thrust upon us. The only way Pakistan will stop its proxy war is when it becomes apparent that Baluchistan, Sindh, Baltistan can also splinter. There are just too many fault lines in Pakistan and one can actually pick and choose.

The government would do well to restructure the higher defence set up discounting the Indian Fai Mafia and bureaucratic resistance bringing the military squarely in as the major player. As for the Indian Fai Mafia, they might feel secure for the time being due to complicity at highest echelons and hold on the intelligence / investigating agencies but it would be wise for them to realize that the above 65 percent of India’s youth that is of 35 years and below is mostly connected and becoming more and aware. They might as well give up these anti-national activities before they are identified and consigned to history.