Indian Defence Review

Conclusion

There have been predictions from many quarters that China and India would emerge as global powers in the decades to come. The interaction between the two Asian giants would be a major determinant not only of regional security but would also influence the global environment in a major way.

The two (India and China) need to synergize their respective strengths that flow out of their maritime capabilities and geo-strategic advantages, rather than the strength of one having a deleterious effect on that of the other.

It is thus not surprising that the two states are under keen scrutiny by other countries. It was probably for this reason that the October 2003 first-ever joint maritime exercise between the erstwhile military foes was keenly watched in the region.

Pragmatism leads one to acknowledge that Realpolitik would compel the two into competition for power status, more so since such eminence has hitherto been elusive to the two great civilizations of historic times. In the context of the current geo-political environment, soft power in terms of economic fortitude is among the major components of such status and its attainment would be the vision of Chinese and Indian policy makers.

However, the rapid development and growth of economies in China and India have increased their vulnerability to energy-supply disruptions. Confrontational energy security policies would not be in their long-term interest, particularly when the two are immediate neighbours. The two need to synergize their respective strengths that flow out of their maritime capabilities and geo-strategic advantages, rather than the strength of one having a deleterious effect on that of the other.

Notes

1. Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China website at http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/statistic/ie/200503/20050300024922.html
2. Philip Andrews-Speed, “China’s Energy Woes: Running on Empty”, Far Eastern Economic Review, June 2005 at http://feer.com/articles1/2005/0506/free/p013.html
3. Mikkal E. Herberg, “The Emergence of China Throughout Asia: Security and Economic Consequences for the U.S.”, June 7, 2005 at http://foreign.senate.gov/testimony/2005/HerbergTestimony050607.pdf
4. The reference is to the Angarsk-Nakhadka oil pipeline project.  Sudha Mahalingam, “Energy and Security in a Changing World”, IDSA Strategic Analysis, Vol. 28(2), Apr-Jun 2004, pp.257-258.
5. Roland Dannreuther, “Asian Security and China’s Energy Needs”, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, Volume 3 (2003), pp.207.
6. Swati Lodh Kundu, “Asian surge in India trade”, Asia Times Online, May 28, 2005 at http://atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GE28Df01.html
7. C Uday Bhaskar, “Regional Naval Cooperation”, IDSA’s Strategic Analysis, Vol. 15(8), November 1992, p.736. His paper refers to the 4000-mile ancient ’silk-route’ that linked China to Rome in the 2nd century BC.
8. Cdr GS Khurana, “Maritime Terrorism in Southern Asia: Addressing the <Precursors>“, Indian Defence Review, Vol 20(1), Jan-Mar 2005, p.60
9. “Station Airs Alleged Osama Tape”, CBS News, October 6, 2002 at http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/09/13/attack/main522015.shtml
10. “Tanker raided at Iraq oil terminal”, ABC News online, June 16, 2005 at http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200506/s1394116.htm
11. For fresh fish and crustaceans, the value of time could be 20 percent per day or more. See, http://www.atse.org.au/index.php?sectionid=236
12. Bill Gertz, “China build up Strategic Sealanes”, The Washington Times, January 18, 2005 at http://www.washtimes.com/national/20050117-115550-1929r.htm
13. E Jayashree Kurup,  “India outsmarted”, The Financial Express, September 03, 2005 at http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=101296
14. Cdr GS Khurana, “Malacca Strait Security: Is Extra-Littoral Naval Response Exigent“‘, Indian Defence Review, Vol. 19(3) (Jul-Sep 04), p. 21.
15. Singapore Ministry of Foreign affairs Press Statement, April 28, 2005 at http://app.sprinter.gov.sg/data/pr/2005042801.htm