Indian Defence Review

Possible War in 1990-92

While North Korea invaded the South in 1950, the South thought seriously of invading the North in the 1990-92 period, when North Korea did NOT have nuclear weapons.   The South had a sophisticated army and airforce, built with US help, while the North had antiquated tanks and artillery pieces.  But, the USA became occupied withIraq, and in managing the fallout from the collapse of the Soviet empire, leaving the South Koreans to their own resources.  Yet, the South Koreans did not have the courage to launch an attack on their own, fearing Chinese intervention, international condemnation, and, most importantly, a North Korean artillery barrage on Seoul.   The South felt it could have weathered all condemnation and onslaughts, but except for the artillery barrage on Seoul, which had about 10 million inhabitants that time.  At the end of their consideration period, the South rationalized it was unsafe to undertake the invasion, focusing instead on economic development, and thinking that there would be another time.

But, that other time never came.  Pakistan gave North Korea nuclear secrets, proliferated, of course, by China, and the North embarked on a treacherous path to nuclear weapons[3].  Many sanctions, threats, food aid for denuclearization, six party talks, and additional food deals later, the West felt deceived and threatened by North Korea when the latter restarted its Yongbyon reactor, and was nowhere close to a solution till Donald Trump’s most deep sanctions of October 2017.  Those sanctions had Kim Jong-Un reeling and, undoubtedly,brought him to the negotiating table, even as North Korea vehemently objects to this reasoning, for obvious reasons that it seeks to keep face and prestige.

South Korean Relations with USA

South Korean relations with USA have been a love-hate relationship.  The Koreans love the financial investment and technology that USA has brought to South Korea, and, indeed, to other East Asian nations such as Taiwan and Japan.  As a result, South Korea has seen unparalleled prosperity in a very short time.  Now, South Korea manufactures advanced fighter aircraft, submarines, howitzers, and exports military armaments.

Moreover, South Korea has enjoyed military security that the USA has provided.  And, the South Korean military has been equipped and trained by the USA, bringing South Korea from a backwater country in WW II to a sophisticated power today.  In contrast, North Korea still possesses and manufactures outdated battle tank and artillery designs.  The US assistance that South Korea received is something South Korea should be grateful for.

But that has not happened to the extent the US would like.  The leftists and rightists are divided, with the left often wanting to see a US exit, and President Moon Jae-In wants the THAADs removed from South Korea, not seeing eye-to-eye with President Trump, largely because Jae-In chases a globalist agenda while Trump carries a nationalist agenda.  On the other hand, the right urges the USA to never ever leave or abandon South Korea.

The result of this tug-of-war is that USA has only half a heart to stay on in South Korea.  It is evident that South Korea will have to face the brunt of any attack by North Korea, so why should the US tolerate the hate of South Koreans?  That said, USA would wish to give South Korea military muscle to fight its own wars, while attending to other, more important matters in other critical spots in the world.  Among other, Korea war veterans, who are still alive today, would not like to see USA abandon Korea, which they fought and shed their blood in.  However, considering that the USA withdrew from Vietnam, it is not altogether impossible for USA to consider the option of pulling out, though it may leave a smaller footprint  in South Korea –say 4-5,000 troops.

Possible Outcomes

Among the most likely outcomes is that a peace treaty will be signed when President Trump meets Kim Jong-Un.   This is probably a given, by now, is easy to do on paper, and would be a significant psychological step forward even if it doesn’t denuclearize the peninsula.  From what has transpired to date, it is also possible that the two Koreas will step further back from the DMZ, thus eliminating the present eyeball-to-eyeball contact the two nations have on the military border.I doubt if either North or South Korea will reduce their readiness levels, as a result, but thinning their presence in the demilitarized zoneis a welcome step as they seek to disentangle.

Naturally, Kim Jong-Un cannot be trusted to give up his nuclear arms, because he well remembers what happened to Muammar Gaddafi, despite all the security guarantees the USA gives.  The trouble is that even if USA can be trusted to keep its side of the bargain, South Korea cannot because they are interested in reunification.  Neither can Kim Jong-Un think it will be a fair deal to agree to give up nuclear weapons only if the USA gives them up in a quid-pro-quo.  Further, it will be very naive of the USA to trust and believe Kim Jong-Un to disavow nuclear weapons altogether.  Everyone should be aware that nuclear material can be hidden in underground facilities, and the centrifuges can also operate unseen in secret facilities in mountain caverns and underground structures.  After all, the team of Hans Blix and the total might of the UN could not find WMDs in Iraq till they were discovered much later after the US-led invasion[4].

The next outcome would be to declare the Korean peninsula a free trade zone for China, South Korea, and US to operate there, if not also Japan[5]. First and foremost, this would improve the economy of North Korea.  Next, it would expand Chinese, South Korean, and US exports to North Korea.  South Koreaand China could purchase North Korean coal, in exchange.  The writer estimates that the total trade value increase in North Korea could touch $25 billion/year, given the absolute paucity of infrastructure, industry, and jobs in North Korea, where the total GDP of North Korea at present is only $28 billion.  This would be a bonanza for the North more than anything for anyone else.

Trump might withdraw 15-25,000 of his 28,000 troops in South Korea.  He doesn’t want to fight on the South Korean side when there is much hate there against America.  Let the South Koreans spill their own blood for their own soil.  In fact, South Korea does not need military guarantees from USA, given that they are up to the task themselves to defend their own country.  There is no need for the USA to fight other people’s battles for them.  Besides, the USA will save money by bringing troops home or sending them to needed places.  Moreover, the “forward” position of US troops in Korea does little to protect US interests.  In fact, the US could possibly align itself with North Korea, even if that idea is far-fetched.

But among the security guarantees that the USA will seek, which may not be resolved, is the complete dismantling of Kim Jong-Un’s ballistic missile arsenal that can surely reach all parts of Japan.  Shinzo Abe is particularly interested in seeing North Korea completely defanged, but which may be wishful thinking rather than anything practical.

Further, Kim Jong-Un will want guarantees that he will not be overthrown, deposed, or invaded by South Korea.  But, the USA may be unwilling to give this guarantee so long as Kim Jong-Un keeps his nuclear arsenal.  Hence, the stand-off could continue, but smaller accomplishments could be achieved.

Hence, there are a few positive steps forward that the peninsula can take when Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump meet, mainly the signing of a peace treaty. Other, smaller agreements between South and North Korea, listed earlier, have already been implemented by the two sides.  But other than that, negotiations are unlikely to give the USA and Japan what they really want – viz., denuclearization of the peninsula.  Nevertheless, after 65 years after the armistice, a peace treaty and the other small agreements are a great step forward.

War Scenarios

All that said, no one is even mentioning North and South Korea demilitarizing and reducing force levels.  So, that is not happening, by a long shot.  While the two countries may pull back a few miles from the DMZ, the artillery barrage from North Korea can still rain down on Seoul.  The potential for war does not disappear.

Given the possible situation that Kim Jong-Un does agree to give up his nuclear weapons and permit US inspections, the USA knows from history that North Korea can cheat.  However, assuming that cheating may not occur, North Korea can still rain down an artillery barrage on Seoul for whatever provocative reason.  This is a prospective event that the South Koreans are unable to find palatable.

To avoid this prospective impasse, South Korea started to move some of its government ministry’s away from Seoul – away from the range of North Korean artillery.  Yet, this movement has been painstakingly slow, with only four to five ministry’s having moved in the past ten to fifteen years.  From a realistic, economic, and logistic standpoint, the mass movement of 10 million people away from Seoul, including its entire government, is a Herculean task.

However, if South Korea should ever wish to invade North Korea, and if South Korea does not want to see Seoul destroyed, it will be absolutely unlikely that it can invade North Korea.  South Korea cannot eat its cake and have it too.

But, if South Korea can tolerate physical damage to Seoul – and tolerate an economic setback for 10-20 years till it rebuilds — it can move its citizens away from Seouland then invade North Korea.

But, during such a war, the citizens of Seoul will have to be prepared to live in makeshift camps, which is also a logistical nightmare.  In addition, South Korea will have to start preparing many years in advance for such a massive effort.   But, none of this seems to be happening.

But, neither will South Korea tolerate blackmail by North Korea.  The South will not capitulate on a mere threat by the North to obliterate South Korea even if by conventional means.  Hence, the stalemate is likely to continue unless some wishful outcomes can emerge, notwithstanding that the ego and pride of the parties will have to reduce.

Wishful Outcomes

With everyone wanting resolution the easy way, it is not impossible to conceive that Kim Jong-Un will denuclearize at a price – say $50 billion – and request an annual financial industrial investment – at, say, $25 billion a year.  This will still keep his artillery intact, will still leave Seoul undestroyed, will ensure peace, will enable North Korea to be pulled out of poverty, will enable Kim Jong-Un to retain his position as head of North Korea (though for how long, we don’t know), will industrialize North Korea, will eliminate the nuclear threat to Japan and USA, and will allow China and USA to invest in North Korea.  Money may not be able to buy everything or love, but it is conceivable that it can buy peace in the Korean peninsula.  Moreover, the fact is that China, USA, and South Korea – combined — can afford to buy peace with North Korea.

Needless to say, each investing country will expect to recover its investment over the next 10-20 years.  If Kim Jong-Un will not allow this, they could all escape the possibility of lasting peace in the Koreas.  This is all the more pertinent, because President Trump has stated repeatedly that he will not agree to lifting sanctions on North Korea unless Kim Jong-Un gives up his nukes and delivery systems.  Given the deep pain and pinch Kim Jong-Un is feeling as a result of the sanctions, and his repeated willingness to denuclearize, it is not impossible that he will agree to denuclearize, albeit in a phased manner, with phased input of capital investment, and multiple assurances of security and peace from South Korea and USA.  Giving up ballistic technology is still secondary to denuclearization because ballistic technology can be used for peaceful satellite and space programs.

Closure

It is rational to expect mature countries to show rationality in their behavior.  It is not asking for much from China and USA, and South Korea and North Korea to show rationality.   The world wants it, and has a chance in North Korea to show it prefers peace instead of war.  Needless to say again, President Trump’s deep sanctions against North Korea have driven Kim Jong-Un to his senses – and perhaps to rationality. President Trump has clearly stated that he will make the deals he can, but will walk away from additional deals that do not yield dividends.  The rest will undoubtedly unfold in the days and months to come.