Geopolitics

Qaedat al-Jihad in the Indian sub-continent, Islamic State and India
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 01 Nov , 2015

The rise and decay of Islamic movements in South Asia have often been neglected in the organic understanding of history of Islam, especially dealing with the historical literature. The history of Islamic movements in South Asia has often been judged by the prism of preconceived notions of the modern Orientalists. Though, an insightful analysis of the history of Islam in South Asia has been carried out in a commendable manner by historians like Moinul Haq, Khaliq Ahmad Nizami, Ishtiaq Hussein Qureshi, Sulaiman Nadvi, Shibli Nu’mani. Though, merely a tip of the ice-berg has been revealed taking into account the intellectual fertility of South Asia. [1]

The Indian intellectual scholars had often voiced their support for Palestinian solidarity while the government took an equidistant approach. Though, the current developments, especially with the ISIS emerging as a strong force, demands that India’s foreign policy should implement changes.

The study of religion, per se, is important, especially in the context of South Asia due to the collective ontological insecurity suffered due to the massive marginalization of religion by neo-liberal economic agendas and economic-political cosmopolitanism. After the adoption of neo-liberal economic agenda and complex interdependence with the global economy, the religio-politcal movements in South Asia gained further ground, thereby causing globalization to further foment the resurgence of religion identity. The quest for identity is currently deeply ingrained in avoiding the intermingling with the hegemony of globalization and rather moving towards serious existential yet political questions of – Who I am/ Who we are? The construction of ‘I’ and the ‘Other’ simultaneously tends to inclusive as well as exclusionary. The pairing of ‘I’ and ‘We’ has led to the development of ‘predatory identities’ as called as Arjun Appadurai and are therefore, termed ‘chauvinistic, antagonistic and negative.’ In South Asia, especially, the violence in religio-political terms (in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh), the complicity of State in pogroms (Gujarat, 2002) visibly indicate the production of ‘predatory identities’, where in the construction of one, does the construction of the other. The binary of majority-minority discourse in South Asian politics has often led to the creation of epistemic insecurity, which believes that the survival of a community, often measured by its quantity, is always at stake. The longevity of BJP’s rhetoric of ‘democracy, nation and rights’ are based on the majoritarian perspective creates a pseudo secular political system.[2]

This complex, intermingling of religion and state, especially in terms of India political system can be perhaps understood better by what W.H. Morris Jones thought while formulating the metaphor called ‘play within a play.’ This is because, very soon, every student of Indian political system tends to understand that the main thing that he/she has to learn is never ever what it presents itself to be. Thereby, there are several forces, frictions, fractions and interpretations that are at work, which continuously create a dialectics of religion and politics in the Indian frame of understanding politics.[3]

Starting with this perspective in mind, this paper questions the ramifications of the re-emergence of Qaedat al-Jihad in the Indian sub-continent, Islamic State and India. It would analytically decipher the impact of these two ‘terror’ groups on India and whether or not, the as Islamic State might be in the process of taking root in India, also bringing into study the role of American withdrawal of forces in Afghanistan by the end of 2014.

Al Qaeda’s recent announcement on 3rd September 2014 of opening up its new franchise, called Qaedat al-Jihad in India, Bangladesh and Myanmar might create asymmetrical chaos in South Asia…

India’s relation with West Asian political dynamics

A very low key policy had been the guiding principle of India’s relation with West Asia in the past few decades. The policy of equidistance has been consistent in India’s approach towards West Asia. This approach adopted by Indian Government in most of the pertinent issues dealing with West Asian region might witness a dramatic change in the coming months. The Indian intellectual scholars had often voiced their support for Palestinian solidarity while the government took an equidistant approach. Though, the current developments, especially with the ISIS emerging as a strong force, demands that India’s foreign policy should implement changes. India cannot remain a bystander as it has relations with 25 countries in the region[4]. Though, Ajai Sahni, executive director from Institute of Conflict Management states that India was not initially focusing on the developments in West Asian because it knew that it could not influence any major change. [5]

So, currently, with high stakes in the region, it is assumed that India’s earlier official avoidance of regional fractions in Iraq, like the Kurdish regional group (KRG) would witness a dramatic change. [6]

The national security advisor of India, Ajit Doval secretly visited Iraq in the end of June 2014 in order to negotiate the release of 46 Indian nurses, primarily hailing from Southern part of India, who were held as hostages by the ISIS- controlled areas. [7]

Asif Ibrahim, the Intelligence Bureau Director had also visited Iraq during the same time for this singular agenda. [8]

Al Qaeda’s recent announcement on 3rd September 2014 of opening up its new franchise, called Qaedat al-Jihad in India, Bangladesh and Myanmar might create asymmetrical chaos in South Asia, thereby influencing New Delhi’s stand in favour of a mutual dialogue or assistance with the KRG.[9]

The growing threat of ISIS is a grave concern for India which has 10,000 workers in Iraq[10].

India also imports 25 million tones of oil every year from Iraq. The assumed presence of Pakistani jihadists in ISIS further brings the conflict home.[11]

The death of Osama bin Laden and the scarcity of leadership, consolidation and networking within Al Qaeda scaled down the jihadist efforts of the organisation’s power dynamics in South Asian terrain.

Pakistani Taliban and Lashkar e-Jhangvi have already stated their integration with ISIS from 2013 onwards. [12]

Though, the official tone of India’s foreign policy towards Iraq, ISIS or even KRG will become more clear and transparent after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi returns from the much awaited bilateral talks with United States by the end of 30th September 2014.[13] 

Impact of Al Qaeda in India

By the end of 1990s, the ambitious agenda of Al Qaeda involved garnering broader appeal within and beyond the domains of Arab world. Osama Bin Laden’s frequent reference to Kashmir’s political scenario in India highlighted this newly emerging trend. [14]

The sophisticated, brazen and surprising attacks by Pakistani terrorist in Mumbai in November 2008 underlined the power of Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and the role of Al Qaeda in mentoring an act of strategic jihadist terrorism network. [15]

The death of Osama bin Laden and the scarcity of leadership, consolidation and networking within Al Qaeda scaled down the jihadist efforts of the organisation’s power dynamics in South Asian terrain. Though, the recent broadcast by Al Qaeda’s leader Ayman al- Zawahiri of opening a franchise in India and Myanmar is definitely a part of strategic thinking. It is assumed that he is currently hiding in Pakistan[16] and that Al Qaeda has strong ties with Pakistan’s Lashkar e-Taiba[17], might also effect the Indo-Pak ties which are currently undergoing tensed conditions. The call for global jihad under Qaedat al-Jihad would be initiated by Asim Umar, an obscure militant who shot recently into limelight for asking the Indian Muslims to participate in the global jihad.[18]

New recruits are being strategically targeted through an intensive media networking and video footings, showing public crucifications, mass executions and beheadings.

But most of the Al Qaeda leaders, operating from the Pakistan-Afghanistan border are now seen as aging, tired and ineffectual leaders. Death of prominent leaders like Osama bin Laden, Atiyah Abd al-Rahman, Anwar al-Awlaki, Ilyas Kashmiri and Saeed al Sherhri has further jeopardized their power. Interestingly, the first attack of Al Qaeda India ended up in a dismal failure when they attempted to storm a naval dock in Karachi’s sea port. This recent failure of Qaedat al-Jihad further questions its strategic functioning and competency. [19]

Nevertheless, it is ISIS that presents a more dangerous quagmire in the Indian sub-continent rather than the Qaedat al Jihad. Interestingly, Al Qaeda was unable to leverage support of Muslims in India for the past 26 years but it was ISIS that made a bigger impact within few months.

Play with a play: Agenda of ISIS in Indian sub-continent

The re-surfacing of Al- Qaeda’s fraction in the form of ISIS is a strategic example of underlying the importance of W.H. Morris Jones’s metaphor ‘play within a play.’ The public divorce of ISIS with Al Qaeda in February 2014, due to the growing friction in between the administration, functioning and extremism of ideologies led to this fall out. In spite of being isolated from the Indian sub-continent, ISIS has greater influence due to its hard-line ideology of uniting all Sunni Muslims under a united Caliphate. Indian security agencies have revealed that more than 100 Indian mean from Jammu and Kashmir, Kerala, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have been recruited by the Caliphate.[20]

Indian intelligence assumes that Sultan Abdul Kadir Armar, the man behind Indian Mujahedeen, residing in Bhatkal in Karnataka has been playing a pivotal role in the recruitment process, which has been going on for more than a year now. [21]

Even Pakistan has been witnessing dramatic advents of the ultra radical ISIS involvement in its politics.

The propaganda video of ISIS head Abu Bakr Baghdadi, also known as Caliphate Ibrahim, showing him delivering a sermon in a mosque in recently captured Mosul has already gone viral. New recruits are being strategically targeted through an intensive media networking and video footings, showing public crucifications, mass executions and beheadings. [22]

Its recruitment video ‘ The Chosen Few of Different Lands’ signifies how ISIS is not taking the place of Al Qaeda in being the singular group with hard-line representation of Islam. [23]

Mr. Dhume, resident fellow at American Enterprise Institute believes that India has also failed to modernize its 150 million Muslim minorities which makes ISIS a further dominant threat. Thus, the fact that ISIS’s agenda of creating Islamic World Dominion also includes Gujarat, north western part of India, under its map of Islamic state of Khorasan. On 27th June 2014, police and intelligence sources in Kashmir and New Delhi spotted ISIS banners and flags in Kashmir, the most sensitive area in India. [24]

Abu Bakr Baghdadi , or Ibrahim Awwad al- Badri, ( also called Amir al Mumineen, commander of the faithful) released a Ramazan speech on 1st July 2014, officially vowing a war against several countries, including India. [25]

Even Pakistan has been witnessing dramatic advents of the ultra radical ISIS involvement in its politics. The Jamat-ul Ahrar, splinter group from Pakistan Taliban has officially declared its support for ISIS. Ehsanullah Ehsan, prominent leader of Jamat-ul Ahrar has openly revealed his support. [26]

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Shubhda Chaudhary

PhD scholar from JNU.

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