Indian Defence Review

It is quite intriguing to note how reference is made in media, and more importantly even by scholars, to terrorist leaders in Pakistan and disgruntled / radicalized elements in the Pakistani establishment including the Pakistani military (the so-called Deep State) every time a cross-border terrorist strike is engineered from Pakistani soil. Are we so naïve as to not know that Pakistan is held by the jugular by her own military; the bottom-line being that the only Deep State in Pakistan is the Pakistani military including the ISI which is also 100 percent military.

There is no question of any infiltration astride the LoC and IB without the express sanction and support of the Pakistani military. There was enough evidence couple of months back of Hafiz Saeed prancing along border areas of J&K to coordinate cross-border actions. That he is supported to the hilt by the ISI is of little doubt.

The terrorist strike on the Pathankot Air Force Base was a foregone conclusion. In fact, if Nawaz Sharif did invite PM Modi on the spur of the moment taking the Pakistani military by surprise, it may have resulted in Army Chief Raheel Sharif and ISI Chief Rizwan Akhtar going into a huddle to discuss how to reestablish the military’s primacy in Pakistan with a bang – not that Nawaz Sharif is any peace dove with his assertion he was unaware of the massive intrusions in Kargil during 1999 being a big question mark. 

In the instant case of the strike at the Pathankot Air Force Base, terrorists could not inflict damage to aircraft albeit seven to nine security personnel were martyred (some in hospital due to grievous injury) – few from the Defence Security Corps (DSC) who were unlikely equipped with night vision, walkie-talkie radios and modern assault rifles. In addition, some 10-15 personnel on own side are reported injured. Six terrorists have been killed till last reports and combing operations are continuing after 40 hours of gun battle with perhaps one or two terrorists still holed up.

The Bomb Disposal Squad suffered another one killed and four injured ignoring lessons from LTTE and Maoists booby trapping their dead.  A US Public Affairs spokesman has condemned the terror attack on the IAF base by Pakistani terrorists, urging all countries in the region to disrupt and dismantle terrorist networks and bring to justice the perpetrators of this heinous act, extending condolences to victims and their families, and affirming commitment to strong partnership with the Indian government to combat terrorism; a routine statement after every terrorist attack engineered by Pakistan.

The statement does pointedly refer to “Pakistani terrorists” but aside from the routine call to all countries in the region to disrupt and dismantle terrorist networks and bring to justice the perpetrators of this heinous act, will the US exert any pressure at all on Pakistan? As to countries in the region, India and Afghanistan are both targets of Pakistan’s proxy war while China is hand in glove with the Pakistani military. So this call to all countries in the region is nothing but sterile and worthless blabber. 

Pakistan too has condemned the terror strike and asserted that building on the goodwill created during the recent high level contacts, it remained committed to partner India in tackling terrorism – another load of routine bullshit talk considering the inaction on acting against perpetrators of previous such terrorist strikes. What action has been taken to shut down the anti-India infrastructure including the 40-50 terrorist training camps in Pakistan-POK details of which are available with the Indian Parliament and the Indian military? Though much has been written about the meeting of the two NSAs in Bangkok, do you really expect anything much by NSA Naseer Khan Janjua who is personal appointee of Raheel Sharif? Has the organization in Bahawalpur been raided and rounded up that sponsored, supported and directed this terrorist strike? The Pakistani military would have applauded them as the Musharraf was honouring those who conducted cross-border beheadings.

The evidence of involvement of Pakistan in the terror strike in Pathankot is implicit. Terrorists were in regular touch with their Pakistani handlers, who even arranged a taxi (a Toyota Innova) for them by calling from a mobile number of that country. The driver of the Innova was called to a particular spot near Pathankot where the terrorists boarded the vehicle but dumped it because of an accident. Terrorist then hijacked a Mahindra SUV X500 in which a SP Punjab Police was travelling along with a friend and a cook. They forced the SP and the cook out, taking the friend hostage and snatching a mobile to dial the number in Pakistan which was used to call the driver of the Toyota Innova. From this number, they had called their handlers thrice and once to a family member who was told that they were on a suicide mission. From this Pakistani mobile number, the handlers were actively giving the directions to the terrorists. As one politician from J&K says, such attacks are routine and will continue to happen.

The media continues with its idiotic best, giving each and every detail without the slightest thought to consequences. Does one realize the revelation of details of officers killed is used by the terrorists as motivation? Are such details released in Pakistan about their officers killed in Op ‘Zarb-e-Azb’ or elsewhere? Are such details revealed in public by US-NATO forces? Did we have to give out the Pakistani telephone / mobile numbers that are being monitored? Why do we have to give how many NSG commandos were moved, when, and move of army troops? For that matter, was their move timely given the advance warning as reported, given own casualty rate?

Post 9/11, US did not permit media within five kilometers of ground zero. In contrast, look at the media shemozzle in India whether it is the attack on Parliament, 26/11 terror attack in Mumbai or any other terror attack. In previous cases even the make / model of communication sets of terrorists were given out, revealing own interception capabilities. And, one can’t hide behind the argument of ‘open media’, which is conveniently blocked when the political authority so demands, example being the total blackout of veteran rallies connected with OROP and continuing protests at Jantar Mantar. The Ministry of Information and Broadcasting needs to bring in some norms where national security is involved – provided for them  the issue is not mundane.

What India has failed to acknowledge, whatever the government at the Centre, is the following:-

• The toothless cliché “Karara Jawab Denge” or cross-border firing cuts no ice. This should be passé and buried unless the idea is to encourage mirth across the border.
• Sub-conventional war is the flavor of the current era, and even US-NATO and China have adopted it, conventional forces not being very effective against irregular forces.
• The massive narcotics induction routes into India are being used by both terrorists and smugglers with institutionalized links own side of the border.
• The Pakistani military is that zebra which won’t change its stripes especially with the US administration continuing to support it even despite suffering most US-NATO killed in Afghanistan because of Pakistani proxies. The resurgence of Al Qarda and induction of ISIS in Afghanistan is part of the Great Game. Additionally, Pakistani military has the strongest supporter in China.

• The Pakistani military are the protégé of the genre of Zia-ul-Haq and Musharraf, latter declaring, “Even if the Kashmir issue is resolved, jihad against India will continue”.
• The recruitment base for terrorist organizations in Pakistan and the military is common, so there is enough across the board radicalization.
• Sections of Pakistani administration support terrorist organizations. So do many politicians who have won elections with terrorist support. Shahbaz Sharif, Chief Minister of Punjab and Nawaz Sharifs brother himself has doled out money to terrorist organizations.
• India has to fight terrorism on its own. At best India may get intelligence but that too only if it suits the national interest of the provider country. Not without reason Ashley Tellis of Carnegie Foundation says, “India being subjected to terrorism suits many …….. India is a sponge that absorbs terror.”
• In past 3-4 years, Pakistan has trained 20 Mujahid battalions to operate as Taliban / terrorists. Pakistan has been using regular soldiers disguised as civilians in Afghanistan including the September 7, 2015 truck bombing in Kabul that killed 15 and wounded some 400, wherein the National Directorate of Security of Afghanistan found out the attacks were carried out by elements of the Pakistani army with the help of their mercenaries – Haqqani terrorist network. India should not discount regular Pakistani army and JeM terrorists used in the Pathankot strike.

Unless we acknowledge the above realities repeatedly staring us in the face, the situation will go worse with Pakistan military buoyed with her successes in Afghanistan and renewed Chinese support due to the CPEC. The near simultaneous strike at the Indian Consulate in Mazar-e-Sharif in Afghanistan is further proof.

The terrorists for the Patahnkot strike were trained at a JeM camp with ISI support, so the force sent across could well have comprised regulars too. Weren’t the 26/11 terrorists trained by Pakistani marines? Not that Pakistani military regulars disguised as jihadis were not sneaking into India earlier.

The first SSG Havaldar was captured in Kupwara in 1995 though he stated he had quit the regular army, which is the normal briefing to such terrorists as part of their modus operandi.

The question now is where do we go from here, not the same was not raised post terrorist strikes in the past including at military bases like Kaluchak, Tanda etc. Whatever actions were taken post these strikes have obviously not worked. Conventional force and diplomacy by themselves is no match to irregular forces. This is not a war that can be fought under the rules of Mahabharata.

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In fact, a foreign policy purely based on idealism borders on foolishness in the 21st century since the costs of always following an inward looking policy are that much higher, which we have been experiencing past decades. As for continuation of India-Pakistan talks, that is a decision that the government has take. Warring nations do continue talking albeit in this case we will be talking to a country whose military continues her profession of prostituting terrorism, venting more frustrations perhaps because Pakistani army has never ever won a war. But most importantly, we need to speedily build a credible deterrence against Pakistan’s proxy war, which should not require very long gestation period. To say that Pakistan has multiple fault-lines is actually an understatement. These are far too many and the Pakistani military needs to be sub-conventionally stretched to the extent that it is forced to fall in line; making it realize that the cost of generating terrorism may make it difficult to hold the country together.