Geopolitics

Pakistan 2030: Possible Scenarios and Options
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Would the country witness yet another two to three bouts of civil-military rule before it fully reconciles to merits of a constitutional democracy?

Current Economic Crises: Whether or not one would see the revival of the country’s economy? The Pakistani economy is sustained largely by foreign aid and loans. The social sector indicators such as health and education too paint a not so good picture. As long as the West shows interest in Pakistan, it may be in a position to finance its failing economy. But their disengagement from the region could surely spell doom for Pakistan’s economy. The unprecedented floods in Pakistan that have caused much damage and devastation further aggravate the economic health of the country.

The foregoing uncertainties could be the prime drivers in shaping the future scenarios in Pakistan. In the following section, these have been inter-woven to evolve the generic trend lines in conjunction with other less consequential drivers. The conceptualisation of trend lines has been confined to the discussion of key uncertainties.

The Decadal Trend Lines

Each strategic uncertainty has been analysed to outline the trajectories i.e. the current situation and decades till 2020 and 2030. These trend lines then form the basis of postulating plausible scenarios for 2030.
Pakistan-scenarios-2030

Plausible Scenarios 2030

Four broad visualisations denoted as the `4F Scenarios` emerge – functional, fragile, failing and fragmented Pakistan. Each scenario is based on a mix of trend lines drawn from the key uncertainties discussed above. There could be a few intermediate scenarios; however these are not discussed. Notwithstanding the negativities observed in the trend lines, the probability of the Pakistani state pulling itself out from the current mess cannot be ruled out.

Scenario I:

Functional Pakistan. It is quite possible that state of Pakistan is able to drive itself out of its current internal problems. The Pakistan army sensing the security implications comes down heavily against the radical elements. The Taliban momentum is eventually rolled back and the al-Qaida is denied safe havens. The success of allied operations in Afghanistan facilitates in calming down the frontier provinces. The rival political groups and parties begin to cooperate with the military in order to bring some sense of order within the country. The civil administration recognises the criticality of the situation and begins to perform. The social sector indicators such as health, education and law and order start looking up as a result of sound economic policies.

Book_Asia_2030The diplomatic relations with its immediate neighbours show a marked improvement. The country in general shows an uptrend in all spheres of public life but the army continues to be in control.

Scenario II:

Fragile Pakistan. The power struggle continues and the cyclical civilian – military rule repeats itself every four to five years. Here, the politicians get lucky in ridding Pakistan of some radical and military influences. But the age old animosity between the PPP and PML(N), and other regional political parties does not end so soon. Settling of the personal scores between the principal power centres i.e. the military and nationalist parties will continue. And just as the Pakistani state recovers from one situation, another crisis may arise.

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The Pakistan civil society could be expected to rally behind these power centres, but if there is no change, it could well become despondent. The politics of ‘power swings’ is likely to be the norm for a generation or more, till the people of Pakistan realise the futility of this brand of politics, or a charismatic figure emerges, whose vision and aura over shadows the current crop of politicians and generals.

Pushed around for strategic and ideological gains, Pakistans capacity to influence its future is reduced or simply non-existent. At best, it can rent out its territory for others games or power play.

Scenario III:

Failing Pakistan. Growing radicalism and demand for provincial autonomy would be the key uncertainties driving this condition. A civil war may possibly erupt in the state of Pakistan wherein the peripheral provinces go their own way, radicalism rules and al-Qaida operatives come close to laying their hands on some nukes. The internal fault lines are accentuated by issues of food shortages, climate change and water security, and the sharing of natural resources and minerals. And even if, the existential threat from the Pakistani Taliban is somewhat reduced, this protracted conflict with the Taliban would eventually weaken the state. The Pakistani populace becomes increasingly vulnerable to the battle between the religious forces and secularists, capital investment flees, economic development slows down and Pakistan becomes a nation of conflicting interests. In the process, chaos and anarchy sets in. Pakistan looks to be headed for ‘Lebanon-isation’ and even possible ‘Balkan-isation’.

Scenario IV:

Fragmented Pakistan. Pakistan’s several power centres such as the military, political and religious parties and radical elements become pawns to extra-regional players – with the US, Russia and China being the lead contenders. Pushed around for strategic and ideological gains, Pakistan’s capacity to influence its future is reduced or simply non-existent. At best, it can rent out its territory for others’ games or power play. This would affect the state’s cohesion and development, and enrich only those actors, who conspire to be part of this great game. The resulting power politics would focus on simply getting a piece of the cake – legitimately or illegitimately. Certainly the Pakistanis can be expected to favour their trusted ally China – because of its strategic importance, economic clout and geographical proximity. China could easily outsmart others in furthering their strategic and commercial interests. China successfully creates several trans-national corporations to check mate the western powers in Pakistan. Giligit-Baltistan shows signs of amalgamating with China. The United States may retain some control over certain political constituencies in Pakistan. India too may vie for re-claiming some of its territory in Jammu and Kashmir. A resurgent Russia and the Shiite Iran would also not like to be left out of the resulting imbroglio.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Col Harinder Singh

Col. Harinder Singh is a Research Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.

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