Blackmail Diplomacy in the wake of Strategic Patience:
Pyongyang practices blackmail diplomacy in relation to not merely the US, but what the former regards as its confidant and close buddy Beijing. The US follows principles of strategic patience as regards North Korea since any precipitate action against an adversarial leader with a personality cult such as Kim Jong Un- could imperil US Pacific allies notably South Korea and Japan. China has increasingly begun to undermine Pyongyang. Beijing fears that any tension leading to a conflict between the two Korea’s could bring in a refugee influx from North Korea –something which would be economically very taxing for Beijing.
North Korea has on numerous occasions violated the Armistice terms by its provocative acts and by disturbing peace and tranquility.
Pyongyang says it has successfully conducted a hydrogen bomb test on Jan 6, 2016. Kim Jong Un –the nation’s assertive, albeit idiosyncratic despot is thrilled that his announcement last month that North Korea has the technology and the infrastructure for such an achievement has proven correct. The State television proudly proclaims “the Republic’s first hydrogen bomb test has been successfully performed based on the strategic determination of the Worker’s Party. With this test we have joined the rank of advanced nuclear States“ Kim could hardly have asked for a better birthday present (his birthday is just two days away) As it happens North Korea is also to hold its first Party Congress in May 2016 after 35 years and Kim will have a much coveted trophy in the sophisticated miniaturized fission test- adopting the fission technology, to show to party cadres.
Pyongyang’s continued defiance of its Pacific rivals was further exacerbated by the sub-marine missile launch.
North Korean persistent Provocations are a Clear violation of the terms of Armistice:
The circumstances which ended the Korean War in 1953 and the accord which brought an end to hostilities –through the Armistice clearly mandated on the two Koreas to respect the Ceasefire and maintain peace and tranquility. PDRK flagrantly violated these terms.1 North Korea has on numerous occasions violated the Armistice terms by its provocative acts and by disturbing peace and tranquility. The demilitarized zone close to the 38th Parallel is the border between the two Koreas. The eventual desired culmination is the re-unification of the two separated countries sharing a common language and culture. It is sad that close relatives and friends are separated thanks to the bifurcation.
By 1993 it had become manifestly clear to the world in general and the US in particular that North Korea was flouting the NPT stipulations – fully cognizant of the fact that the world has observed its infringements, Pyongyang unilaterally withdrew from the NPT in 1993.
The Technical Implications of the Thermonuclear Test:
Has North Korea in fact, achieved this cutting edge breakthrough is within the realm of speculation-though the US now has come to accept this as a reality. If it is indeed a reality –the proclaimed miniaturization of a nuclear device may mean that Pyongyang is already endowed with the technical knowhow and the capability to develop nuclear warheads for its planned large ballistic missiles.
Commenting on the unusual seismic event detected after the test, the Executive Secretary of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) Lassina Zebro said “ I urge the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) to refrain from further nuclear testing and join the 183 signatories who have acceded to the CTBTO.
Chronological Landmarks:
With complete knowledge of its increased international isolation North Korea was driven to become a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as early as 1985. By 1993 it had become manifestly clear to the world in general and the US in particular that North Korea was flouting the NPT stipulations – fully cognizant of the fact that the world has observed its infringements, Pyongyang unilaterally withdrew from the NPT in 1993. North Korea outside the ambit of NPT was a veritable unexploded Molotov cocktail. In 1993 itself the UNSC passed resolution 825 to urge North Korea to remain in the NPT regime and adhere to its non-proliferation obligations.
Six world powers i.e. North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China , Russia and Japan agreed for talks to make Pyongyang fall in line, but after what was believed to be a breakthrough in 2005-there did not appear to be any forward movement on this. At the present juncture the revival of the six nation effort is a dire imperative.
North Korea efforts towards nuclearization have been decades old. That poverty and starvation have hardly put a spanner in its works, becomes abundantly clear considering even drastic UN sanctions did not lead the rogue State towards better compliance of the sanctions stipulations. It has successfully undertaken nuclear tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013. Furthermore, North Korea has successfully hoodwinked the international community by pretending it was taking measures to curb nuclearization. For example, it destroyed the cooling towers at its reactor site at Yongbyon ( North Korea’s main nuclear facility ) This was intended to be a part of disarmament for aid deal-nothing uncommon between North Korea and the US. In March 2013 after a war of words with the US and a dose of fresh sanctions Pyongyang revived its nuclear programme at this facility. It had the audacity to unveil to Siegfried Hecker ( a US nuclear scientist ) in 2010 the enrichment facility at Yongbyon. While North Korea has depleted its reserves of plutonium it has plentiful reserves of uranium.
China, while condemning this act has assured the world community that it was unaware that this ally (Pyongyang ) was going to undertake another nuclear test.
Even though Pyongyang would be very wary of showing any open defiance of Beijing –by virtue of being its protégé and an invaluable strategic ally ( North Korea’s economy is virtually completely dependent on China ) and taking Chinese support to PDRK as a given for ring fencing any international onslaught against North Korea- that Pyongyang can no longer seek solace from the above is manifestly clear by the assertion from China’s State news agency Xinhua which states “ a new test runs counter to the goal of denuclearization and warned that any practice which disrupts stability in north-east Asia is undesirable and unwise “ Says Toshimitsu Shigemura – professor of Tokyo’s Waseda University “ the tried and tested stance of several decades of promising détente and cooperation only to buy time for intensification of nuclearization will no longer work”
Despite Beijing superficially ticking off its belligerent neighbour when it goes afoul of the NPT rulebook (as on the present occasion ) North Korea’s strategic importance and nuisance value as a counter to South Korea, Japan and the United States is invaluable and therefore, China will oppose tooth and nail , any drastic sanctions against North Korea because of tests relating to nuclear and missile development. In 2010 China refused to take a stance against North Korea despite conclusive evidence of Pyongyang’s hand in sinking a South Korean naval vessel. Let us not forget that the US has stationed about 25,000 soldiers in South Korea-something which worries China immensely. Just as Pakistan offers strategic depth to China vis a vis India ; North Korea offers not merely a defence shield for China to stand against its adversaries in the Pacific region, but more importantly, Pyongyang role as a frontline bastion is indispensable to Beijing.
The Concern of the Immediate neighbours:
Japan’s envoy to the UN Motohide Yoshikava has called for invoking the provisions of Art 43 of Chapter VII of the UN charter-this provision authorizes the UN to impose sanctions and to use military means to ensure their compliance. South Korea has also condemned Pyongyang’s provocative act and promised to extract a price for this from its wayward neighbor. China, while condemning this act has assured the world community that it was unaware that this ally (Pyongyang ) was going to undertake another nuclear test.
…Pyongyang will, despite international pressure, stay the course, as it has defyingly been doing so since the nation came into being.
The historical Pakistan-North Korea nexus:
As early as 1970 Prime-Minister Benazir Bhutto was keen to establish commercial and diplomatic links with North Korea-she had clearly understood the benefits of the value addition which could be achieved for Pakistan’s missile technology through synergies which the bilateral cooperation could provide in introducing cutting edge technology of the time . Pakistan’s missile technology was still in its infancy during that time. Pakistan’s controversial nuclear scientist A.Q.Khan, as a quid pro quo also helped North Korea with the nuclear enrichment technology. Therefore, Pakistan is to a large measure responsible for nuclearizing an arrogant and defiant Pyongyang. Khan had raised controversies with almost all countries he dealt with, notably Iran and Libya. In 2003 the international community castigated Libya for their nuclear programme, which was in a fairly advanced State. The International Atomic Energy Agency ( IAEA ) was entrusted with the task of investigation-during the process the Libyan government had to reveal the names of suppliers and Pakistan’s Khan was also named.
Trade and diplomatic relations were established between Pakistan and North Korea
The six nations proactively working to ensure that Pyongyong falls line with UN requirements has through this latest North Korean test met its most formidable challenge. The French president Francois Hollande hasn’t minced words by saying “ North Korea’s violation of the UN Resolution is completely unacceptable “ There is hardly any doubt that the United Nations Security Council –will be disgustingly pejorative to Pyongyang.
There were several calculations made by North Korea for timing this misadventure to coincide with other international developments preoccupying the international community in general and the US in particular not least of all, the US strategic planning as regards Iran (another State treated by the US as a part of the axis of evil ) ; the most recent intensification of the Iran-Saudi Arabia cold war in the wake of the execution of the Shia cleric in Saudi Arabia; the developments in Syria and Iraq vis a vis the Daesh and a host of other issues.
In the opinion of this writer Pyongyang will, despite international pressure, stay the course, as it has defyingly been doing so since the nation came into being. India has advised Pyongyang to “refrain from such acts which adversely affect peace and stability in the region.
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1. The Korean Armistice agreement which ended the Korean War –was signed on behalf of the UN Command ( UNC ) by US Army by Lt.Gen. William Harrison Jr ; for North Korea Gen Nam II ( Korean People’s Army) was the signatory, the third signatory was China. The Armistice was signed on July 27, 1953 and was designed to:
(a) Ensure a complete cessation of hostilities
(b) All acts of armed force in Korea-until a final peaceful settlement is achieved.
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