Geopolitics

North Korea and Pakistan: Judged by Different Yardsticks
Star Rating Loader Please wait...
Issue Net Edition | Date : 28 Dec , 2017

Are North Korea’s nuclear tipped missiles a threat to the World or the United States of America? Is United States of America the World??!!

US began to look at North Korea in a different light. The threat was now not to its allies but directly to USA, the sole superpower.

On May 13, 2017 when Kim Jong Un test fired test-fired a Hwasong-12 missile from a test site in the area of Kusong, USA began to get more concerned. The missile, later revealed to be an intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM), travelled 30 minutes, reached an altitude of more than 2,111.5 km, and flew a horizontal distance of 789 km (489 miles), before falling into the Sea of Japan. Such a missile would have a range of at least 4,000, reaching Guam, to 6,000 km. Guam, a vital US base in the Pacific, was suddenly a target for nuclear missile attack by North Korea!!

US began to look at North Korea in a different light. The threat was now not to its allies but directly to USA, the sole superpower.

Again on July 4, 2017 North Korea tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), Hwasong-14. The significance of the date could not be a mere coincidence. It launched from the Panghyon Aircraft Factory 8 km southeast of Panghyon Airport. It was aimed straight up at a lofted trajectory and reached more than 2,500 km into space. It landed 37 minutes later, more than 930 km from its launch site, into Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Along a flatter trajectory, the missile would have travelled 7,000-8,000 km or more, reaching Alaska, Hawaii, and maybe Seattle. Its operational range would be farther, bringing a 500 kg payload to targets in most of the contiguous United States 9,700 km away.

On July 28, 2017 the 14th missile test carried out by North Korea in 2017 was another ICBM launched from Chagang Province in the north of the country. Los Angeles, Denver, Chicago, Boston, and New York appear to be within range. The missile’s re-entry vehicle (RV) was seen by people in Japan as it entered the atmosphere and landed near the northernmost Japanese island, Hokkaido. Analysis later revealed that the RV broke up on re-entry; further testing would be required. The CIA made an assessment expecting adequate performance of the RV under the different stresses of a shallower (or flatter) trajectory towards the continental US.

The US adopted a range of Congressional Acts to reign in Pakistan in pursuing its clandestine nuclear weapons programme.

Finally on November 28, 2017 North Korea launched an ICBM from the vicinity of Pyongsong. The missile travelled for 50 minutes and reached 2800 miles (4,500 km) in height, both of which were new milestones. The missile flew 600 miles (1,000 km) east into the Sea of Japan. North Korea called it a Hwasong-15 missile. Its potential range appears to be more than 8,000 miles (13,000 km), able to reach Washington and the rest of the continental United States. Much about the missile is unknown. The missile might have been fitted with a mock warhead to increase its range, in which case the maximum missile range while carrying a heavy warhead might be shorter than 13,000 km. Based on satellite imagery, some experts believe that North Korea may now be able to fuel missiles horizontally, shortening the delay between when a missile becomes visible to when it can be launched. The missile is believed to have broken up on re-entry into the atmosphere.

With a hydrogen bomb and miniaturised warheads to fit its missiles already in its possession this became the final straw and casus belli for the US to call for tough diplomatic and economic action.

On the other hand, over the decades, Pakistan was subjected to numerous embargoes and sanction regimes by the US. Save for the UN Resolution 1172 which the UNSC adopted for India and Pakistan in May 1998, the rest of the developed world however, refrained from imposing sanctions on Pakistan to the same degree as the US.

The US adopted a range of Congressional Acts to reign in Pakistan in pursuing its clandestine nuclear weapons programme. These were the Symington Amendment to Section 101 of the Arms Export Control Act applied to Pakistan in 1979. The Pressler Amendment of Section 620E(e) of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, adopted in 1985, bars most forms of U.S. military assistance to Islamabad unless the president certifies annually that Pakistan does not possess a nuclear explosive device. It was imposed in 1990 when President George HW Bush was unable to make such a certification. Glenn Amendment to Section 102(b) of the Arms Export Control Act, imposed in 1998 for Pakistan’s nuclear tests in May of that year.

Pakistan is as much a nuclear proliferator as North Korea. It is a half baked democracy harbouring, supporting and training Islamic terrorists of all hues. It is as much a rogue state as North Korea.

Most of these sanctions/embargoes were lifted soon after they were imposed as US found that it required Pakistan’s support on the developing geopolitical scenarios. In 1979 Soviet troops entered Afghanistan. US saw this as an opportunity to strike a fatal blow to the Soviet Union and quickly abandoned the Symington Amendment. Interestingly as Christine Fair observes “[T]he Pressler Amendment was an important victory for Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, because the legislation provided a simple way to manage two competing interests: Pakistan’s desire to continue developing nuclear weapons on the one hand, and American requirements to provide security assistance to a known proliferator in contravention of U.S. law on the other.

From April of 1979 until the 1985 passage of Pressler, military assistance to Pakistan was enabled by a presidential waiver by which the American president attested that providing security assistance to Pakistan is in U.S. national interest even though Pakistan remained noncompliant with U.S. requirements for such assistance. The Pressler Amendment essentially moved the red lines of sanctionable nuclear proliferation under the Foreign Assistance Act to a simple certification by the U.S. president that Pakistan did not possess a nuclear bomb.” US’ global war on terror was another lifeline for Pakistan. It has continued to get away with ‘blue murder’.

Pakistan is as much a nuclear proliferator as North Korea. It is a half baked democracy harbouring, supporting and training Islamic terrorists of all hues. It is as much a rogue state as North Korea. However, it has the advantage of its geographic location. The US, China and now even Russia, see an advantage in maintaining friendly ties with it. Pakistan acquired its nuclear weapons and missile technology capability with passive concurrence of the US and most active involvement of China. Pakistan’s links to the transfer of nuclear weapons building capability to North Korean is no secret. The Pakistan connection was China’s clandestine indirect route of transfer of nuclear technology to North Korea. India stands alone against this hypocritical cabal. As a result India is left to tackle the nuclear threat from Pakistan on its own.

In the last four decades China lifted a population of over 400 million out of poverty. In the same four decades India has stuck stead fast to one of the Party’s electioneering slogan of “Grabi Hatao”.

India does not have the power or clout to swing international opinion in its favour. The denial of membership to the NSG and UN declaring Masood Azhar as an international terrorist were so easily scuttled by China.

India is often called an ‘Emerging Power in Waiting’. The wait seems endless. It is like India is an “immovable object subjected to an irresistible force”. Even Sir Isaac Newton would not be able to fathom the resultant end state in such a contengency!!

Internal political machinations are more entertaining and take away all the energy and time of the dispensation in power at the Centre.

In the last four decades China lifted a population of over 400 million out of poverty. In the same four decades India has stuck stead fast to one of the Party’s electioneering slogan of “Grabi Hatao”. It is as if that the catchy slogan was more important than changing the situation by alleviating poverty. It has taken seventy years for someone to call for an end to open defecation and the need to clean up the environment that we live in!!!

The zooming Sensex is no indicator of India’s technological self-sufficiency or the success of “Make in India”. India’s democracy is limited to voting. Any dispensation voted to power continues to fall short on the governance front.

Status quo is the chanted mantra. India is averse to change. So it shall, forever, be an “Emerging Power”. Its global clout will be limited to Yoga and spirituality. Expect no more.

Rate this Article
Star Rating Loader Please wait...
The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Lt Gen (Dr) JS Bajwa

is Editor Indian Defence Review and former Chief of Staff, Eastern Command and Director General Infantry.  He has authored two books Modernisation of the People's Liberation Army and  Modernisation of the Chinese PLA

More by the same author

Post your Comment

2000characters left

3 thoughts on “North Korea and Pakistan: Judged by Different Yardsticks

  1. Sir we are too Gandhian in our approach to everything around us, which also includes strategic issues. While the world moved on we have somnambulated. We never even looked at China as our main adversary. China made rapid strides in revamping and modernising its armed forces while here the Armed forces were fighting for basics such as pay and basic equipment for our soldiers. It appears we are a nation of laggards content with less than a mediocre performance. Our internal politics and functioning of the government is flawed. Institutionally we are very weak with square pegs in round holes.

  2. Excellent viewpoint. While the US makes huge fuss about North Korea , which is largely justified, the US attitude to Pakistan is deplorable. The US has turned a blind eye to Pakistani nuclear proliferation for years, it has never punished Pakistan and on the contrary continues to shower Pakistan with aid, military and civil. S0, India must take with a grain of salt the protestations of the US with regard to nuclear powers or proliferation. All the US protestations must be seen through the strategic calculations of the US, which only rarely coincide with India’s .

More Comments Loader Loading Comments