Indian Defence Review

The North East Region offers all strategic imperatives to India that Alaska offers to the US. It is a land bridge joining the two ends of Asia, the East with the West and a gateway to ASEAN. It gives India reach and depth to project power as well as access to resource-rich South East Asia. It has land borders with four nations which are resource rich and hungry for infrastructure development. The markets of these nations are capable of absorbing huge consumer goods, heavy machinery, food, automobile, medicines, services, education, infrastructure development in the social sector and even tourism.

“The Mandate of Heaven postulates that heaven would bless the authority of a just ruler, but would be displeased with a despotic ruler and would withdraw its mandate. The authority or a king loses the right to rule if divine legitimacy is lost.” —Duke of Zhou

In 1935, Billy Mitchell had said, “Whoever holds Alaska will hold the world. I think it is the most important strategic place in the world.” He pleaded with the US Congress that Alaska is strategically the most important place on the Earth; it is an unsinkable aircraft carrier linking two oceans, Alaska sits atop the polar axis of three continents.1 The importance of Alaska was realised almost two decades later, but by then Billy had died. Billy’s vision was not telepathy, but a roadmap to unravel the future trajectory of US Power. His assertions about Alaska were based on “geographical logic” and it would have been a costly mistake and an irreparable damage had US not realised it later. Today, Alaska is strategically and economically the most significant piece of land.

The North East Region offers all strategic imperatives to India that Alaska offers to the US. It is a land bridge joining the two ends of Asia, the East with the West and a gateway to ASEAN. It gives India reach and depth to project power as well as access to resource-rich South East Asia. It has land borders with four nations which are resource rich and hungry for infrastructure development. The markets of these nations are capable of absorbing huge consumer goods, heavy machinery, food, automobile, medicines, services, education, infrastructure development in the social sector and even tourism.

More than 90 per cent of the area is bordered by five countries including Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burma, China and Nepal. There are seven federal states in the North East, and the number of autonomous territories,2 which is integrated by geography in the unique shape of a hand, the Brahmaputra valley is the middle of the palm that balances the seven states just as a hand provides balance to its fingers. It is an integral part of India albeit fragmented and unstable. One of the Naga tribal leaders told the author, “The past does not make us privileged, the present does not inspire us and future doesn’t give us hope.” The statement is an expression of helplessness and uncertain future of the generation next. India is sitting on unexplored gold mine and if the wisdom of converting it into India’s Alaska does not dawn now, well, a great opportunity will be lost and it will be injustice to the people of North East and South Asia.

North East – The Alaska of India

The North East Region (NER) is a land of opportunities, with huge potential for growth and development. At the time of independence, Brahmaputra Valley was much more prosperous, per capita income in the undivided State of Assam which comprised most of what is India’s North East today3 was higher than the national average by almost four per cent. Thus, even under the British colonial rule, the economic performance of the region was better than the rest of the country. Clearly, this region has vast developmental potential.

Land Mass. The North Eastern states of India account for 7.9 per cent of the country’s geographical area with just about 3.8 per cent of the national population. It has 15 per cent of the national forest cover, the highest in any country thus making the North East land and forest surplus.

Demography. Close to 70 per cent of the population lives in the Assam/Brahmaputra Valley and the balance 30 per cent in the rest of the six states. The region has over 160 scheduled tribes and over 400 other tribal and sub-tribal communities. It is predominantly rural with over 84 per cent of the population living in the countryside. This is a strength and an indicator that rural North East has huge potential to support large populations, even without development.

Land Bridge to ASEAN and Passage to Prosperity. The NER is a land bridge to ASEAN and South East Asia, it lies in the flight path of the Asian Highway and an alternative modern silk route. The North East gives India access to oil and a resource-rich region of South Asia and its consumer markets. It gives India access to the soft underbelly of China and an opportunity to reverse military and cultural threat. It is in close proximity to Myanmar that has estimated hydrocarbon reserves of 2.5 Trillion Cubic Metres (TCM) of natural gas and 3.5 billion barrels of crude oil.4 China has already commenced import of 12 million tonnes of crude oil per year and 12 BCM of natural gas, whereas India is yet to finalise the mode of transhipment. Bangladesh, another neighbour has identified gas reserves of 20 TCF. However estimates are that ultimate recoverable resources could be as high as 50 TCF or even 100 TCF. Logically thinking, carbon energy reserves in Bangladesh and Myanmar should have been the captive reserves of India, but regrettably, India is moving at a very slow pace in securing the energy resources from her immediate neighbourhood.

Hydro Power Potential. Professor Pranab Das in his report, “North–East, ‘The Power House of India’: Prospect and Problems” estimated that North Eastern States including Sikkim have the potential of 84,000 MW of hydro power which is about 43 per cent of the total hydro power generation capacity in the country. Conversely, only five per cent of its potential has been harnessed so far. The annual per capita consumption in the region is 119 KiloWatt/hour, whereas the national average is 390 KiloWatt/hour.5 In spite of the huge potential of the availability of electricity, the consumption continues to remain low.

Virgin Land. The NER is virgin land with economic potential and surplus resources for supporting up to ten per cent of the national population. It gives India access to link the East with the West by land.

Resource Bowl of India

The Geological Survey of India (GSI) and Geochemical Mapping (GCM) have carried out assessments of availability of metallic and non-metallic minerals in the NER. The study has revealed that the NER is resource rich with one of the largest reserves of oil and gas in the country, uranium, coal, chromite, lignite, potential deposits of Platinum Group of Elements (PGE), quartzite deposits, granite, limestone and vast sources of renewable energy.

However, except in Assam, the exploitation and extraction of natural resources have not been commenced in an earnest manner. There is a trust deficit and the tribals are weary of the benefits going elsewhere. To reverse this trend and bring credibility to the government’s intent, mining should be done with the preconditions that the bulk of the share of profit will be invested in the NER to improve infrastructure and economically empower the locals by creating jobs, enhancing communication systems, developing infrastructure and creating wealth.

Continued Isolation and Underdevelopment

There is no end to inter and intra-state conflict. The more Delhi wants to change, more the ground situation remains the same. In this context, there is a need to ask why the North East has not made the turnaround even with so much of potential. Who is accountable and responsible for the present state of affairs? Empirical analysis suggests that a strategically important region has remained sandwiched in poverty and impoverishment due to the following reasons:-

Tyranny of Distance. Having become the Far East of India, the North East has moved away from the heartland. As a result, the people’s voices are silenced by political and bureaucratic filters before they reach Delhi. Geographical and geo-political faultlines are often breached by communication highways and education. Distances, therefore, are reduced in time and space to connect with the people. But a sluggish and status quo mindset has today allowed the North East to remain frozen in time and space. The state of connectivity is such that four out of the seven state capitals are yet to be connected by rail and national highways in many parts are not better than a single lane fair weather undulating alignment. It has the lowest road and railway density in the country. Inadequate road and rail links have made many areas inaccessible and their great potential in forest products, cash crops, hydropower, animal husbandry and tourism remain unexploited.6 The North East should have by now become the destination of education, trade and transit hub for South East Asia.

Geographical Logic. On a serious note the “Look East Policy” must be looked at from Guwahati and not from Delhi. India needs to make policy decisions to link four neighbours economically and culturally with North East India. Guwahati can be the Mumbai of the North East and the Manchester of the East. Yunnan on the other side was far remote in comparison to Bengal and Assam but today, Yunnan is the third fastest growing state in China; the sole reason for this turnaround is that it is integrated with ASEAN and some of the South Asian Nations by communication highways and economies. The GDP of Yunnan is much higher than the GDP of some of its neighbours. This could be achieved since Beijing looks at the economic opportunities in South East Asia and ASEAN from Kunming and not from Beijing.

Struggle to Remain Exclusive. There is a motivated attempt to create a perception that all major tribes and ethnic communities are exclusive and tribal/sub-tribal patriotism takes precedence over state nationalism. Every tribe/ethnic diaspora considers itself to be exclusive and has a separate identity. This is a hurdle for integration of ethnic tribes into state subjects.

Mindset of Different Origin has Different Destiny. Most of the ethnic tribes are reluctant to accommodate or accept other community as equal partners in the nation building process. However, some of the self-seeking leaders advocate that different origins have different destinies. Call for Greater Nagalim, an exclusive Kuki state, Assam for Ahom are barriers to developing the concept of state nationalism. This mindset can only be broken when there is restoration of faith and trust between government and the people and between the tribes and ethnic communities as well.

Failure to Appreciate the Geostrategic Location of North East. There are few parallels as far as the North East is concerned. Yunnan, Tibet and Xinxiang have similar significance to China as North East has to India, Alaska to US and now Crimea to Ukraine/Russia. Therefore, the North East deserves to be treated as the mainland and equal, if not more significant than other parts of India. It is painful to read when some identify North East as the peripheral areas or land sandwiched between five nations or referring to North East as national vulnerability. Such expressions are indeed a manifestation of the lack of knowledge of the geographical significance of the North East.

Perceptional Difference or Genuine Grievances? Although the problem is perceptional difference, there are genuine grievances as well. Movements against illegal Bangladeshi migrants, lack of development, poor governance, corruption and apathy towards the citizens and their welfare is genuine. However, division of the Naga inhabited areas into four states or denial of greater Nagalim, reorganisation of land records, exploration of natural resources and secessionist movements have emerged primarily from perceptional differences and lack of effort by state and Central Governments to engage with the tribal leaders. Somehow the perception was created in the 1950s that the tribes will lose control and rights over ancestral land and forests and social, religious and cultural freedom. Insincere and misleading signals emanating from Delhi have created an unbridgeable gulf between the government and the people.

Is Development Really an Issue? Of course development including social, economic empowerment of people is an issue. Three generations have gone by waiting for better days ahead but very little has changed on the ground. When citizens of North East compare the development with that in other parts of India, they are convinced that they are citizens of peripheral states/borderlands of India. There is no substantial improvement in communication systems, education facilities, healthcare, power generation and industrial development. One can assess from the fact that a large number of villages in the North East still do not have electricity, road connectivity and basic amenities they are entitled to.

Is the North East India’s Borderland? The region, which should have provided the platform for integration of India with the economies of the three neighbouring countries, i.e. Bangladesh, Bhutan and Myanmar which itself is economically isolated in the absence of availability of highways, power generation capacity and dry docks. The North East by now should have been the centre stage as far as India’s Look East Policy is concerned. The irony is that so far the pace of development or lack of it has displayed that North East is India’s borderland.

Is the North East Politically Light Weight? Evaluating the importance of a region on the basis of its representation in parliament or political platform is an inconsistent mindset. If a region does not make an impact as far as the formation of government is concerned, it cannot be relegated to the status of a peripheral region. Such a mindset is detrimental from the point of strategic wisdom. Rather, the North East should be looked at from a geostrategic point of view since the political, economic and social costs of turbulence in the North East in the years ahead may be too high to be borne by the nation.

Unstable Plateau. Present day North East is an unstable plateau, capable of causing turbulence in the region and destabilising the mainland especially the ‘Red Corridor’. Unregulated armed cadres, the availability of weapons and drugs as well as the activities of non-state actors and state sponsored non-state actors in neighbouring gray territories have the potential to cause uncontrolled chaos.

Development and Trust Deficit. The North East is rain surplus; the surface water resource of the region is close to 652.3 Billion Cubic Metres that shares 34 per cent of country’s total water wealth7 but is still deficient in food, power, development and security. The High-Level Commission appointed by the Prime Minister in its report submitted in 1997 (India, 1997) stated that there are four basic deficits plaguing the North East and these are:

• A basic needs deficit
• An infrastructure deficit
• A resource deficit and
• A two-way deficit of understanding with the rest of the country.

Governance Deficit. What is even more important to highlight is that the above deficits are a result of “governance deficit”. All above factors collectively have led to the NER remaining the poorest region with one of the lowest per capita income in the country. The per capita income of Assam in 2013 was Rs 42,036 against the national average of Rs 60,972 and that of Manipur at Rs 36,2908. Similarly, except for Sikkim, no other state of the NER has a higher income than the national per capita income.

Inexorable Conflict. Security has remained a concern for the government, people, entrepreneurs and even the right-thinking people. One may take solace from the fact that physical violence has reduced and insurgency-related fatalities in a state like Manipur has decreased from 416 in 2009 to 55 in 2013. But Meghalaya, which was comparatively peaceful earlier has now seen a rise in insurgency-related violence. It had five fatalities in 2009 which rose to 60 in 2013.9 It is a worrisome factor, because violence may have reduced but instability is widespread. It has given rise to the conflict of the perception within people, between the states and mainland India.

The violence may have abated but peace is still distant and the reason for this is lack of capacity-building for sustained peace. Security forces no doubt have made evident gains in containing the insurgency, the irony is that the number of underground insurgents have reduced but the number of insurgent groups have increased. In all, there are close to 100 major and minor insurgent groups operating in the North East. Recycling of insurgents is a grave threat to peace; the way forward is an effective rehabilitation policy which unfortunately exists on paper only. There is a persistent risk of destabilisation if the insurgent groups are allowed to retain weapons, trained armed cadres and organised camps. A glaring example of this is that, in spite of the ceasefire, NSCN (IM) still has the strength of approximately 800 cadres and holds almost 500 weapons in Manipur.10 Similarly KNO, UPF and some of the KCP factions have signed an Suspension of Operation (SoO) yet they retain the dedicated cadres and arsenal which is detrimental to the peace process. In the last five years, 20 tonnes of drugs and narcotics were recovered which is at a rough estimate less than five per cent of total trade taking place on the ground.

Objectives of Economic Empowerment

The mother of all problems is economic disparity and prolonged disregard to the aspirations of the people. What do the people really want?

• A secure future to prevent youth adopting the path of unlawful activities.
• To meet the needs first and aspirations later.
• To prevent uneven distribution of wealth between the ‘haves and have nots’ through equal opportunities.
• Dignity and a sense of belonging comes with economic and cultural prosperity. The youth of the North East are asking why some sections of society are more privileged than others.
• Youth are more aware and do believe that economic empowerment on borrowed money is not sustainable. Therefore, the region should be in a position to create wealth. The creation of wealth is the generation of income by exporting goods, agro products and natural resources, outside the region as well as the country.

Geographical and Economic Faultlines

Security of life against physical and cultural violence.

Communication and Connectivity. Distances are compressed in time and space by communication and connectivity. China has developed more than 58,000 km of roads to enhance connectivity in Tibet. Xinxiang today is connected to Central Asia and beyond, up to Europe. Similarly, good connectivity would have aided in breaching the economic, cultural and political faultlines.

Geography and Economy. Economic empowerment of the masses cannot be denied primarily due to the existence of harsh geography. The economy has to be linked to geography and thus a template should be adopted across the board. Heavy industries need a huge infrastructure, transportation, raw material, power and access to markets, while small scale industries, need aptitude, skill, cultural heritage and consumption in local markets. The Brahmaputra Valley is suitable for heavy industries, but Arunachal or Manipur may be suitable for small scale industries. Therefore, socio-economic and geographical limitations are imperative to be considered before laying down the road map for economic development.

Power Generation. Lack of power generation is the sole factor for the poor industrial growth, economic development, infrastructure development, education sector and agriculture sector. Life cannot be visualised without power/electricity in an information age. It is unthinkable to deprive large sections of the rural population in remote areas without electricity. One wonders whether it is a punishment or incentive to live in rural areas!

Education. Education is a basic right, but in the North East, it is outsourced and is only for those who can afford it and run as proxy. School buildings are existing but walls can’t provide education; it needs teachers, educational environment and modern educational aids which are available only on paper. Higher education institutes and opportunities are non-existent and development of human resources under such conditions is unthinakable.

Models for Development

A model of development with difference is required to be adopted for the NER. What the masses need is the removal of “deficiencies first and development later”.

Development Paradigms. Chiapas, a southern state of Mexico is suffering from the same problem of development versus deficiencies, conflict of perception, land reforms, development in the name of forfeiting of land rights and cultural practices. The community has embraced an alternative model of development, cantered on sustainable economic and social practices. The community has developed its own unique market structures and agro-ecological systems. Students in Guaquitepec’s community-based schools are trained in the traditional method of farming, families-given agricultural land to practice the traditional and hybrid method of farming; skill-related education is imparted in Tzeltal, their mother tongue. This is yielding results and Chiapas has cast away the top down development model.

Hybrid Infrastructure Development. “Hybrid infrastructure is the future of inclusive development; it is a method of creating a whole new platform for jobs, economic growth and empowerment of people.” It is about integration of IT/ technology with traditional physical infrastructure to deliver more efficient and effective mechanism to integrate development with the people. The North East is the most suitable region for hybrid infrastructure development; it will open avenues for development which will be in line with the tribal culture and way of life.

Interface of Traditional Knowledge with Modern Developmental Model. Dependence on the forest, the traditional medical system, retaining organic methods of farming, traditional handlooms and breeding of animals needs to be preserved with some modification. ‘Jhumkheti’ is ideal when commercial wood farming is combined with the organic crops such as brown rice, vegetables and cash crops.

Development can take place when “deficiencies of subsistence” are made up.

Top Down Development. Curse of top down development is one of the biggest stumbling blocks in the holistic development of NER. Most of the development programmes have failed in the NER. Education, healthcare, PDS, MNREGA, multipurpose dams, reorganisation of land records and consolidation of forest wealth have either collapsed or are on the verge of doing so, because people have rejected them or due to extreme levels of corruption.

Geography and Integrated Development. The NER is interlinked by topography thus the uneven development of a region will be costly. Although the Brahmaputra Valley has the potential to develop into a prosperous region, it cannot be separated or isolated from the rest of the NER. Prosperity and vulnerabilities will flow from the Brahmaputra Valley to the hill states and vice versa. The Brahmaputra Valley is where the bulk of the population lives, and paradoxically, the Brahmaputra Valley for the last three decades has become a “Valley of Despondency” instead of a “Valley of Hope and Prosperity”. Guwahati has the potential of becoming the Manchester of India; it has access to raw materials, communications, human resources and proximity to domestic and international markets. Some of the measures which need to be taken to devleop the NER are:

Regional Integration. Development is the only path to conflict resolution. People must be made stakeholders. Today, every single tribe or family is fighting to survive all by itself and collectively, they have nothing to lose. The NER is integrated by geography and so should its destiny. Access and exit to all states is through the Brahmaputra Valley. Therefore, the region has to be integrated in all aspects – economically, socially culturally, educationally and institutionally. Assets must be created for common development and the process of integration should be monitored by a nodal agency under DONER.

Power Generation. There are two options for power generation – hydroelectric and gas turbine. The NER, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Nepal are deficient in power. Arunachal and Sikkim should be exploited for hydroelectric power generation whereas Manipur, Mizoram, Meghalaya and Tripura should import gas from Myanmar and Bangladesh, convert gas into electricity and make up for the deficiency in the region first. Surplus electricity may be exported to Bangladesh, Myanmar and Nepal. Bringing gas into Manipur from Myanmar is far easier than taking it across Bangladesh to Bengal.11 Should this option be exercised, the NER will become the energy hub of India and South East Asia.

North East – Green Gold. The NER is sitting on green gold with immense unexplored agro potential that has the prospects of making the NER the fruit, vegetable and flower basket of South Asia and ASEAN. Agro industry, if developed in the right manner will generate employment not only for the locals but also for migrants from other parts of the country.

The NER has potential in the following:-

• Commercial wood farming – as part of Jhumkheti.
• Climatic conditions make it most suitable for vegetable cultivation. Markets for consumption of vegetables is within the NER, mainland India, Bangladesh and South East Asia.
• Floriculture – The NER could compete with Thailand as an exporter of flowers, especially Orchids, traditional and other varities of exotic flowers.
• Cultivation of medicinal plants has huge potential. Such activities will preserve the environment and also encourage the development of the medicine industry in the region.
• Retail and supply chain of agro product is completely absent in the NER. As a result, even if there are farmers growing commercial crops they are neither getting access to markets, nor getting the right price for their produce. As a result, there is reverse flow of agro products despite the huge potential.

Educational Centres for Excellence. A national institute for forestry, horticulture and medicinal plants should be established in the North East. It will be the ideal place to establish Advanced Study Centre of Forests and Environmental Studies for India and South East Asia. It will enhance environmental awareness and will provide an opportunity to scholars of regional countries to undertake research work collectively.

Small Scale Industries. Mega industries are not a substitute for small scale industries. The NER has the culture of small scale industries to meet domestic needs, most prominent among these being the handlooms and handicraft industry. It is estimated that there are close to 18,21,172 looms in the NER, of which 1,32,343 are idle and 60 per cent of total idle looms are in Assam.12 This has a serious impact on employment generation, especially among the women (60 per cent of these are women). Industries for handlooms, fish farming, art and craft, tea processing and bamboo goods have skills and markets within the region.

Regional Integration of NER

South Asia and ASEAN. “The power that saves is greater than the power that destroys.” Rejection of empathy towards fellow humans is a rejection of divinity. Projection of power should not only be for military deterrence, but also for collective development and greater good of humanity. The time is ripe to integrate the economies of South East Asia and neighboring countries with the NER. The engine for development should be NER-centric and initiatives should be taken in the following fields:

• Import of gas and export of electricity which could be one of the most profitable exercises.
• Trade. Import of jade and gems, rice, pulses, timber, oil, gas, raw rubber from Myanmar and Thailand and export of electricity, consumer goods, electronic goods, medicines, processed food, infrastructure development and education.
• Develop the NER especially Manipur for education and sports excellence in India and South Asia. Institutes of higher education, sports centres, tourism training institutes and Buddhist Educational Centres will give impetus and provide a platform for higher education for regional states and neighbouring countries.
• Establishment of dry docks for export and import one each in Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Meghalaya and Bengal. These dry docks will serve the purpose if they are linked to communication highways for speedy transportation of goods.

Conclusion

Capacity building for sustaining peace and management of conflict can best be done through economic empowerment of the people. What hurts most is economic deprivation. Social scientists have concluded that people will definitely choose “peace and prosperity” over “conflict and uncertainty”. Economically empowered regions are less likely to have security deficit whereas the economically deprived regions are likely to exist in a state of anarchy. The successful termination of insurgency is rarely attributed to security forces because the cause of insecurity and instability is lack of governance and uneven distribution of opportunities and resources. The bottom line for termination of insurgency in the NER is creation and equitable distribution of wealth, people as stakeholders in the prosperity of the region, integration of the region with the mainland through communication and connectivity.

The endeavour should be to win through actions rather than argument. The prosperity of the NER is more important for India as a pivot for projection of national power. To sum up, “it is pointless to have the greatest dream in the world, if others reap the glory at your cost”. It is unwise to ponder over the past and missed opportunities. Plan all the way till end. The NER is an opportunity for India and the people of NER should be made to realise that they are strategic partners in India’s rise to the next level. Let NER be the Land of the Rising Sun and of Hope.

“Just as the money, which once out of your pocket, never returns, anarchy, once set in an unregulated and ill-disciplined state, cannot be prevented.”     —Chanakya

N.B. The views expressed in this article are those of the author in his personal capacity and do not carry any official endorsement.